Results for 'Mark Schervish Joseph'

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  1.  32
    Coherence with Proper Scoring Rules.Mark Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Mark Schervish Joseph - unknown
    • Coherence1 for previsions of random variables with generalized betting; • Coherence2 for probability forecasts of events with Brier score penalty; • Coherence3 probability forecasts of events with various proper scoring rules.
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  2.  2
    Visuospatial Attention Bias is Related to ADHD Symptomology: A Behavioural and Electrophysiological Analysis.Wagner Joseph, Newman Daniel, Loughnane Gerard, Kelly Simon, O'Connell Redmond & Bellgrove Mark - 2015 - Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 9.
  3.  2
    Genetically Mediated Resistance to Distraction: Influence of Dopamine Transporter Genotype on Attentional Selection.Bellgrove Mark, Newman Daniel, Cummins Tarrant, Tong Janette, Johnson Beth, Wagner Joseph, Goodrich Jack, Hawi Ziarih & Chambers Chris - 2015 - Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 9.
  4.  3
    Coherent Choice Functions Under Uncertainty.Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark Schervish & Joseph Kadane - 2009 - Synthese 172 (1):157-176.
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  5.  28
    When Coherent Preferences May Not Preserve Indifference Between Equivalent Random Variables: A Price for Unbounded Utilities.Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark Schervish & Joseph Kadane - unknown
    We extend de Finetti’s (1974) theory of coherence to apply also to unbounded random variables. We show that for random variables with mandated infinite prevision, such as for the St. Petersburg gamble, coherence precludes indifference between equivalent random quantities. That is, we demonstrate when the prevision of the difference between two such equivalent random variables must be positive. This result conflicts with the usual approach to theories of Subjective Expected Utility, where preference is defined over lotteries. In addition, we explore (...)
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  6.  74
    Coherent Choice Functions Under Uncertainty.Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane - 2009 - Synthese 172 (1):157 - 176.
    We discuss several features of coherent choice functions —where the admissible options in a decision problem are exactly those that maximize expected utility for some probability/utility pair in fixed set S of probability/utility pairs. In this paper we consider, primarily, normal form decision problems under uncertainty—where only the probability component of S is indeterminate and utility for two privileged outcomes is determinate. Coherent choice distinguishes between each pair of sets of probabilities regardless the “shape” or “connectedness” of the sets of (...)
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  7.  7
    Forecasting with Imprecise Probabilities.Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane - unknown
    We review de Finetti’s two coherence criteria for determinate probabilities: coherence1defined in terms of previsions for a set of events that are undominated by the status quo – previsions immune to a sure-loss – and coherence2 defined in terms of forecasts for events undominated in Brier score by a rival forecast. We propose a criterion of IP-coherence2 based on a generalization of Brier score for IP-forecasts that uses 1-sided, lower and upper, probability forecasts. However, whereas Brier score is a strictly (...)
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  8.  10
    On the Shared Preferences of Two Bayesian Decision Makers.Teddy Seidenfeld, Joseph B. Kadane & Mark J. Schervish - 1989 - Journal of Philosophy 86 (5):225-244.
  9.  11
    A Rubinesque Theory of Decision.Joseph B. Kadane, Teddy Seidenfeld & Mark J. Schervish - unknown
  10.  18
    What Kind of Uncertainty is That? Using Personal Probability for Expressing One's Thinking About Logical and Mathematical Propositions.Teddy Seidenfel, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane - 2012 - Journal of Philosophy 109 (8-9):516-533.
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  11.  28
    State-Dependent Utilities.Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane - unknown
    Several axiom systems for preference among acts lead to a unique probability and a state-independent utility such that acts are ranked according to their expected utilities. These axioms have been used as a foundation for Bayesian decision theory and subjective probability calculus. In this article we note that the uniqueness of the probability is relative to the choice of whatcounts as a constant outcome. Although it is sometimes clear what should be considered constant, in many cases there are several possible (...)
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  12.  20
    Sleeping Beauty’s Credences.Jessica Cisewski, Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Rafael Stern - unknown
    The Sleeping Beauty problem has spawned a debate between “Thirders” and “Halfers” who draw conflicting conclusions about Sleeping Beauty’s credence that a coin lands Heads. Our analysis is based on a probability model for what Sleeping Beauty knows at each time during the Experiment. We show that conflicting conclusions result from different modeling assumptions that each group makes. Our analysis uses a standard “Bayesian” account of rational belief with conditioning. No special handling is used for self-locating beliefs or centered propositions. (...)
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  13.  55
    Preference for Equivalent Random Variables: A Price for Unbounded Utilities.Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane - unknown
    When real-valued utilities for outcomes are bounded, or when all variables are simple, it is consistent with expected utility to have preferences defined over probability distributions or lotteries. That is, under such circumstances two variables with a common probability distribution over outcomes – equivalent variables – occupy the same place in a preference ordering. However, if strict preference respects uniform, strict dominance in outcomes between variables, and if indifference between two variables entails indifference between their difference and the status quo, (...)
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  14. What Experiment Did We Just Do?Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish & Teddy Seidenfeld - unknown
    Experimenters sometimes insist that it is unwise to examine data before determining how to analyze them, as it creates the potential for biased results. I explore the rationale behind this methodological guideline from the standpoint of an error statistical theory of evidence, and I discuss a method of evaluating evidence in some contexts when this predesignation rule has been violated. I illustrate the problem of potential bias, and the method by which it may be addressed, with an example from the (...)
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  15.  31
    When Several Bayesians Agree That There Will Be No Reasoning to a Foregone Conclusion.Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish & Teddy Seidenfeld - 1996 - Philosophy of Science 63 (3):289.
    When can a Bayesian investigator select an hypothesis H and design an experiment (or a sequence of experiments) to make certain that, given the experimental outcome(s), the posterior probability of H will be lower than its prior probability? We report an elementary result which establishes sufficient conditions under which this reasoning to a foregone conclusion cannot occur. Through an example, we discuss how this result extends to the perspective of an onlooker who agrees with the investigator about the statistical model (...)
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  16.  2
    On the Shared Preferences of Two Bayesian Decision Makers.Teddy Seidenfeld, Joseph B. Kadane & Mark J. Schervish - 1989 - Journal of Philosophy 86 (5):225.
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  17. The Rest of Sleeping Beauty.Jessi Cisewski, Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Rafael Stern - unknown
     
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  18.  9
    Infinite Previsions and Finitely Additive Expectations.Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane - unknown
    We give an extension of de Finetti’s concept of coherence to unbounded random variables that allows for gambling in the presence of infinite previsions. We present a finitely additive extension of the Daniell integral to unbounded random variables that we believe has advantages over Lebesgue-style integrals in the finitely additive setting. We also give a general version of the Fundamental Theorem of Prevision to deal with conditional previsions and unbounded random variables.
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  19.  5
    Nonconglomerability for Countably Additive Measures That Are Not Κ-Additive.Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane - 2017 - Review of Symbolic Logic 10 (2):284-300.
    Let κ be an uncountable cardinal. Using the theory of conditional probability associated with de Finetti and Dubins, subject to several structural assumptions for creating sufficiently many measurable sets, and assuming that κ is not a weakly inaccessible cardinal, we show that each probability that is not κ-­additive has conditional probabilities that fail to be conglomerable in a partition of cardinality no greater than κ. This generalizes our result, where we established that each finite but not countably additive probability has (...)
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  20.  7
    Dominating Countably Many Forecasts.Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane - unknown
    We investigate differences between a simple Dominance Principle applied to sums of fair prices for variables and dominance applied to sums of forecasts for variables scored by proper scoring rules. In particular, we consider differences when fair prices and forecasts correspond to finitely additive expectations and dominance is applied with infinitely many prices and/or forecasts.
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  21.  23
    The Effect of Exchange Rates on Statistical Decisions.Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane - 2013 - Philosophy of Science 80 (4):504-532.
    Statistical decision theory, whether based on Bayesian principles or other concepts such as minimax or admissibility, relies on minimizing expected loss or maximizing expected utility. Loss and utility functions are generally treated as unit-less numerical measures of value for consequences. Here, we address the issue of the units in which loss and utility are settled and the implications that those units have on the rankings of potential decisions. When multiple currencies are available for paying the loss, one must take explicit (...)
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  22.  22
    Wahrscheinlichkeiistheorie.Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane - unknown
    uniquely into a convex combination of a countably additive probability and a purely finitely additive (PFA) one. The coefficient of the PFA probability..
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  23.  19
    A Rate of Incoherence Applied to Fixed‐Level Testing.Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane - 2002 - Philosophy of Science 69 (S3):S248-S264.
    It has long been known that the practice of testing all hypotheses at the same level , regardless of the distribution of the data, is not consistent with Bayesian expected utility maximization. According to de Finetti’s “Dutch Book” argument, procedures that are not consistent with expected utility maximization are incoherent and they lead to gambles that are sure to lose no matter what happens. In this paper, we use a method to measure the rate at which incoherent procedures are sure (...)
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  24.  19
    A Rate of Incoherence Applied to Fixed-Level Testing.Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane - 2002 - Proceedings of the Philosophy of Science Association 2002 (3):S248-S264.
    It has long been known that the practice of testing all hypotheses at the same level , regardless of the distribution of the data, is not consistent with Bayesian expected utility maximization. According to de Finetti’s “Dutch Book” argument, procedures that are not consistent with expected utility maximization are incoherent and they lead to gambles that are sure to lose no matter what happens. In this paper, we use a method to measure the rate at which incoherent procedures are sure (...)
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  25.  2
    Characterization of Proper and Strictly Proper Scoring Rules for Quantiles.Mark J. Schervish, Joseph B. Kadane & Teddy Seidenfeld - unknown
    We give necessary and sufficient conditions for a scoring rule to be proper for a quantile if utility is linear, and the distribution is unrestricted. We also give results when the set of distributions is limited, for example, to distributions that have first moments.
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  26.  7
    Two Measures of Incoherence: How Not to Gamble If You Must.Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane - unknown
    The degree of incoherence, when previsions are not made in accordance with a probability measure, is measured by either of two rates at which an incoherent bookie can be made a sure loser. Each bet is considered as an investment from the points of view of both the bookie and a gambler who takes the bet. From each viewpoint, we define an amount invested (or escrowed) for each bet, and the sure loss of incoherent previsions is divided by the escrow (...)
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  27.  2
    Decisions Without Ordering.Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane - unknown
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  28. Is Ignorance Bliss?Joseph B. Kadane, Mark Schervish & Teddy Seidenfeld - 2008 - Journal of Philosophy 105 (1):5-36.
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  29. Rethinking the Foundations of Statistics.Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish & Teddy Seidenfeld - 2012 - Cambridge University Press.
    This important collection of essays is a synthesis of foundational studies in Bayesian decision theory and statistics. An overarching topic of the collection is understanding how the norms for Bayesian decision making should apply in settings with more than one rational decision maker and then tracing out some of the consequences of this turn for Bayesian statistics. There are four principal themes to the collection: cooperative, non-sequential decisions; the representation and measurement of 'partially ordered' preferences; non-cooperative, sequential decisions; and pooling (...)
     
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  30. When Several Bayesians Agree That There Will Be No Reasoning to a Foregone Conclusion.Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish & Teddy Seidenfeld - 1996 - Philosophy of Science 63 (5):S281-S289.
    When can a Bayesian investigator select an hypothesis H and design an experiment to make certain that, given the experimental outcome, the posterior probability of H will be lower than its prior probability? We report an elementary result which establishes sufficient conditions under which this reasoning to a foregone conclusion cannot occur. Through an example, we discuss how this result extends to the perspective of an onlooker who agrees with the investigator about the statistical model for the data but who (...)
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  31.  16
    Rethinking the Foundations of Statistics, Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish and Teddy Seidenfeld. Cambridge University Press, 1999, X + 388 Pages. [REVIEW]Matthias Hild - 2003 - Economics and Philosophy 19 (1):149-155.
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  32. Review of Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish and Teddy Seidenfeld's Rethinking the Foundations of Statistics. [REVIEW]M. Hild - 2003 - Economics and Philosophy 19 (1):149-155.
  33.  6
    Metatheory and the State: Review of Rethinking State Theory by Mark J. Smith. [REVIEW]Jonathan Joseph - 2007 - Journal of Critical Realism 4 (1).
  34. A Conflict Between Finite Additivity and Avoiding Dutch Book.Teddy Seidenfeld & Mark J. Schervish - 1983 - Philosophy of Science 50 (3):398-412.
    For Savage (1954) as for de Finetti (1974), the existence of subjective (personal) probability is a consequence of the normative theory of preference. (De Finetti achieves the reduction of belief to desire with his generalized Dutch-Book argument for Previsions.) Both Savage and de Finetti rebel against legislating countable additivity for subjective probability. They require merely that probability be finitely additive. Simultaneously, they insist that their theories of preference are weak, accommodating all but self-defeating desires. In this paper we dispute these (...)
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  35.  31
    Forecasting with Imprecise/Indeterminate Probabilities [IP] – Some Preliminary Findings.Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark Schervish & Jay Kadane - unknown
    Part 1 Background on de Finetti’s twin criteria of coherence: Coherence1: 2-sided previsions free from dominance through a Book. Coherence2: Forecasts free from dominance under Brier (squared error) score. Part 2 IP theory based on a scoring rule.
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  36.  20
    Extending Bayesian Theory to Cooperative Groups: An Introduction to Indeterminate/Imprecise Probability Theories [IP] Also See Www.Sipta.Org.Teddy Seidenfeld & Mark Schervish - unknown
    Pi(AS) = Pi(A)Pi(S) for i = 1, 2. But the Linear Pool created a group opinion P3 with positive dependence. P3(A|S) > P3(A).
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  37.  2
    Neuro-Imaging Guidelines for Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury-Pediatric Emergency Medicine Section Newsletter, September 2011.Madeline M. Joseph, Jahn Avarello, Isabel Barata, Ann Marie Dietrich, Robert Hoffman, David Markenson, Mark Hostetler, Gerald Schwarz, Jonathan Valente & Muhammad Waseem - 2007 - Nexus 9:18.
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  38.  9
    Order and Life. By Joseph Needham, Fellow of Gonville and Caius College, and Sir William Dunn Reader in Biochemistry, Cambridge. (London: Cambridge University Press. 1936. Pp. X + 178. Price 8s. 6d. Net.). [REVIEW]H. W. B. Joseph - 1938 - Philosophy 13 (49):93-.
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  39.  11
    Mark Schervish.Teddy Seidenfeld - unknown
    Consider two SEU Bayesian decision makers, Dick and Jane, who wish to form a cooperative partnership that will make decisions, constrained by the following two principles governing coherence and compromise.
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  40.  20
    REVIEW: "Purple Haze: The Puzzle of Consciousness" by Joseph Levine, "Phenomenal Consciousness: A Naturalistic Theory" by Peter Carruthers, and "The Nature of Consciousness" by Mark Rowlands.Tim Crane - unknown
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  41.  7
    Health Care Ethics: Theological Foundations, Contemporary Issues, and Controversial Cases, Revised Edition by Michael R. Panicola, David M. Belde, John Paul Slosar, and Mark F. Repenshek, And: On Moral Medicine: Theological Perspectives in Medical Ethics, Third Edition Ed. By M. Therese Lysaught and Joseph J. Kotva Jr. With Stephen E. Lammers and Allen Verhey. [REVIEW]Lindsey Esbensen - 2014 - Journal of the Society of Christian Ethics 34 (2):211-214.
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  42.  5
    JEFFREY P. BISHOP, JOSEPH B. FANNING, MARK J. BLITON/Of Goals and Goods and Floundering About: A Dissensus Report on Clinical Ethics Consultation 275-291 3 BRIAN H. CHILDS/Credentialing Clinical Ethics. [REVIEW]Lauren M. Edelstein, Evan G. Derenzo, Elizabeth Waetzig & Craig Zelizer - 2009 - HEC Forum 21 (4):391-393.
  43.  4
    Sandor Goodhart, Ronald Bogue, Denis B. Walker, Timothy Clark, C. S. Schreiner, Robert Tobin, John Kleiner, David Carey, Chris Parkin, John Anzalone, Richard K. Emmerson, Janet Lungstrum, Alex Fischler, Hugh Bredin, Victor A. Kramer, Steven Rendall, Gerald Prince, John D. Lyons, David Hayman, Roberta Davidson, Dan Latimer, Joseph J. Maier, Kenneth Marc Harris, Lynne Vieth, Joanne Cutting-Gray, Michael L. Hall, Mark P. Drost, John J. Stuhr, Charles Affron, Celia E. Weller, Jerome Schwartz, Mary B. McKinley, Patrick Henry. [REVIEW]Robert C. Solomon - 1992 - Philosophy and Literature 16 (1):174.
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  44.  5
    Citoyenneté, Communauté, Pluralisme** _Mark Hunyadi, L'art de L'Exclusion. Une Critique de Michael Walzer_** _Joseph H. Carens, Culture, Citizenship, and Community. A Contextual Exploration of Justice and Evenhandedness_** Citizenship in Diverse Societies. Edited by Will Kymlicka and Wayne Norman. [REVIEW]André Berten - 2001 - Revue Philosophique De Louvain 99 (3):479-489.
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  45.  2
    Edwin Stein, Joseph Gibaldi, Fernand Hallyn, Timothy Hampton, Allan H. Pasco, John F. Desmond, Walter Adamson, Robert T. Corum, Mary Anne O'Neil, David Gorman, Richard Kaplan, Michael Weber, Willard Bohn, William E. Cain, Ronald Bogue, English Showalter, Michael Winkler, Richard Eldridge, Michael McClintick, Leslie D. Harris, Paul Taylor, John J. Stuhr, David Novitz, Paul Trembath, Mark Stocker, Michael McGaha, Patricia A. Ward, Michael Fischer, Michael Lopez, Ruth Ap Roberts, Gerald Prince. [REVIEW]Wendell V. Harris - 1993 - Philosophy and Literature 17 (2):343.
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  46. Semi Joseph Begun.Magnetic Recording: The Ups and Downs of a Pioneer: The Memoirs of Semi Joseph Begun. Edited by Mark Clark. Viii + 159 Pp., Illus., Apps. New York: Audio Engineering Society, 2000. [REVIEW]John Belton - 2002 - Isis 93 (2):341-343.
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  47. The Means of Progress 79 Advance of Publication, but It is the Second Part That has Most to Fear From 'Castration,'Because of the Dispute with its First Printer, Who Was a Closet Loyalist (See the Appendix to Rights of Man: Part the Second [London, 1792], 175–8). Nonetheless, the 'We'in 'We Don't Sell It'seems to Allude to Joseph Johnson, and That Would Imply That It Refers to the First Part. See Mark Philp,'Godwin, Holcroft and the Rights of Man,'. [REVIEW]Thelwall Godwin - 1982 - Enlightenment and Dissent 1:38-42.
     
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  48.  27
    Is Ignorance Bliss?B. Kadane Joseph, Schervish Mark & Seidenfeld Teddy - 2008 - Journal of Philosophy 105 (1):5-36.
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  49. Joseph Butler's Moral and Religious Thought: Tercentenary Essays.Christopher Cunliffe (ed.) - 1992 - Oxford University Press.
    The essays in this book mark the tercentenary of the birth of Bishop Joseph Butler, the leading Anglican theologian of the eighteenth century and also an important moral philosopher. They cover the full range of Butler's theological and philosophical writings--from his Christian apologetic against the deists to his discussion of the role of their historical context and suggestion of their relevance to contemporary religious and philosophical issues. At a time of renewed interest in Butler's thought, as well as (...)
     
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  50.  9
    Joseph A. Goguen: Editor JCS 1994-2006.Anthony Freeman - 2006 - Journal of Consciousness Studies 13 (6):5-6.
    It is a sad duty to report the death of Joseph Goguen (1941-2006) on July 3rd, shortly after a three-day Festschrift Symposium, organized by colleagues from across the world, to mark his 65th birthday and to celebrate his retirement from the University of California at San Diego.
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