Nowadays decision making is strongly supported by the high-confident point estimations produced by deep learning algorithms. In many activities, they are sufficient for the decision-making process. However, in some other cases, confidence intervals are required too for an appropriate decision-making process. In this work, a first attempt to generate point estimations with confidence intervals for the $^{222}$Rn radiation level time series at Canfranc Underground Laboratory is presented. To predict the low-radiation periods allows correctly scheduling the unshielded periods for maintenance operations (...) in the experiments hosted in this facility. This should minimize the deposition of radioactive dust on the exposed surfaces during these unshielded periods. An approach based on deep learning with stochastic regulation is evaluated in the forecasting of point estimations and confidence intervals of the $^{222}$Rn time series and compared with a second approach based on Gaussian processes. As a consequence of this work, an evaluation of the capacity of Gaussian process and deep learning with stochastic regularization for generating point estimations and their confidence intervals for this time series is stated. (shrink)

Concern about air-quality in urban areas has led to the implementation of Low Emission Zones as one of many other initiatives to control it. Recently in Spain, the enactment of a law made this mandatory for cities with a population larger than 50k inhabitants. The delimitation of these areas is not without controversy because of possible negative economic and social impacts. Therefore, clear assessments of how these initiatives decrease pollutant concentrations are to be provided. Madrid Central is a major initiative (...) of Madrid city council for reducing motor traffic and the associated air pollution in the city centre. This Low Emission Zone starts at the end of 2018, but the first fully-operational period corresponds to the second quarter of 2019. In this work, a methodology based on the Gaussian Process to analyse the evolution of Nitrogen Dioxide inside Madrid Central is undertaken. A Gaussian Process is a stochastic process suitable for interpretable model selection and predictions. Due to its probabilistic nature it provides error estimation at predictions. After the activation of Madrid Central, a relevant reduction of Nitrogen Dioxide has been observed. However, the role of the meteorology during this period must be ascertained to correctly evaluate the role of the activation of the Low Emission Zone against a prone weather. In this work, a model based on the Gaussian Process is trained with meteorological information to predict the concentration of Nitrogen Dioxide at Madrid Central, $[NO_{2}]$. This probabilistic description allows extracting statistical information on the reduction affected by the meteorological scenario and separately by the Madrid Central activation. (shrink)

The travelling salesman problem is one of the most popular problems in combinatorial optimization. It has been frequently used as a benchmark of the performance of evolutionary algorithms. For this reason, nowadays practitioners request new and more difficult instances of this problem. This leads to investigate how to evaluate the intrinsic difficulty of the instances and how to separate ease and difficult instances. By developing methodologies for separating easy- from difficult-to-solve instances, researchers can fairly test the performance of their combinatorial (...) optimizers. In this work, a methodology for evaluating the difficulty of instances of the travelling salesman problem near the optimal solution is proposed. The question is if the fitness landscape near the optimal solution encodes enough information to separate instances in function of their intrinsic difficulty. This methodology is based on the use of a random walk to explore the closeness of the optimal solution. The optimal solution is modified by altering one connection between two cities at each step, at the same time that the fitness of the altered solution is evaluated. This permits evaluating the slope of the fitness landscape. Later, and using the previous information, the difficulty of the instance is evaluated with random forests and artificial neural networks. In this work, this methodology is confronted with a wide set of instances. As a consequence, a methodology to separate the instances of the travelling salesman problem by their degree of difficulty is proposed and evaluated. (shrink)

Inception module is one of the most used variants in convolutional neural networks. It has a large portfolio of success cases in computer vision. In the past years, diverse inception flavours, differing in the number of branches, the size and the number of the kernels, have appeared in the scientific literature. They are proposed based on the expertise of the practitioners without any optimization process. In this work, an implementation of population-based incremental learning is proposed for automatic optimization of the (...) hyperparameters of the inception module. This hyperparameters optimization undertakes classification of the MNIST database of handwritten digit images. This problem is widely used as a benchmark in classification, and therefore, the learned best configurations for the Inception module will be of wide use in the deep learning community. In order to reduce the carbon footprint of the optimization process, policies for reducing the redundant evaluations have been undertaken. As a consequence of this work, an evaluation of configurations of the inception module and a mechanism for optimizing hyperparameters in deep learning architectures are stated. (shrink)