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Niki Pfeifer
Universität Regensburg
  1. Reasoning About Uncertain Conditionals.Niki Pfeifer - 2014 - Studia Logica 102 (4):849-866.
    There is a long tradition in formal epistemology and in the psychology of reasoning to investigate indicative conditionals. In psychology, the propositional calculus was taken for granted to be the normative standard of reference. Experimental tasks, evaluation of the participants’ responses and psychological model building, were inspired by the semantics of the material conditional. Recent empirical work on indicative conditionals focuses on uncertainty. Consequently, the normative standard of reference has changed. I argue why neither logic nor standard probability theory provide (...)
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  2.  90
    The New Psychology of Reasoning: A Mental Probability Logical Perspective.Niki Pfeifer - 2013 - Thinking and Reasoning 19 (3-4):329-345.
  3.  94
    Framing Human Inference by Coherence Based Probability Logic.Niki Pfeifer & Gernot D. Kleiter - 2009 - Journal of Applied Logic 7 (2):206--217.
    We take coherence based probability logic as the basic reference theory to model human deductive reasoning. The conditional and probabilistic argument forms are explored. We give a brief overview of recent developments of combining logic and probability in psychology. A study on conditional inferences illustrates our approach. First steps towards a process model of conditional inferences conclude the paper.
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  4. Experiments on Aristotle’s Thesis: Towards an Experimental Philosophy of Conditionals.Niki Pfeifer - 2012 - The Monist 95 (2):223-240.
    Two experiments investigate two versions of Aristotle’s Thesis for the first time. Aristotle’s Thesis is a negated conditional, which consists of one propositional variable with a negation either in the antecedent or in the consequent. This task allows us to infer if people interpret indicative conditionals as material conditionals or as conditional events. In the first experiment I investigate between-participants the two versions of Aristotle’s Thesis crossed with abstract versus concrete task material. The modal response for all four groups is (...)
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  5. How People Interpret Conditionals: Shifts Towards the Conditional Event.A. J. B. Fugard, Niki Pfeifer, B. Mayerhofer & Gernot D. Kleiter - 2011 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 37 (3):635-648.
    We investigated how people interpret conditionals and how stable their interpretation is over a long series of trials. Participants were shown the colored patterns on each side of a six-sided die, and were asked how sure they were that a conditional holds of the side landing upwards when the die is randomly thrown. Participants were presented with 71 trials consisting of all combinations of binary dimensions of shape (e.g., circles and squares) and color (e.g., blue and red) painted onto the (...)
     
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  6. The Conditional in Mental Probability Logic.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2010 - In M. Oaksford & N. Chater (eds.), Cognition and Conditionals: Probability and Logic in Human Thought. Oxford University Press. pp. 153--173.
    The present chapter describes a probabilistic framework of human reasoning. It is based on probability logic. While there are several approaches to probability logic, we adopt the coherence based approach.
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  7. Coherence and Nonmonotonicity in Human Reasoning.Niki Pfeifer & Gernot D. Kleiter - 2005 - Synthese 146 (1-2):93-109.
    Nonmonotonic reasoning is often claimed to mimic human common sense reasoning. Only a few studies, though, have investigated this claim empirically. We report four experiments which investigate three rules of SYSTEMP, namely the AND, the LEFT LOGICAL EQUIVALENCE, and the OR rule. The actual inferences of the subjects are compared with the coherent normative upper and lower probability bounds derived from a non-infinitesimal probability semantics of SYSTEM P. We found a relatively good agreement of human reasoning and principles of nonmonotonic (...)
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  8. Inference in Conditional Probability Logic.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2006 - Kybernetika 42 (2):391--404.
    An important field of probability logic is the investigation of inference rules that propagate point probabilities or, more generally, interval probabilities from premises to conclusions. Conditional probability logic (CPL) interprets the common sense expressions of the form “if . . . , then . . . ” by conditional probabilities and not by the probability of the material implication. An inference rule is probabilistically informative if the coherent probability interval of its conclusion is not necessarily equal to the unit interval (...)
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  9. Formal Epistemology and the New Paradigm Psychology of Reasoning.Niki Pfeifer & Igor Douven - 2014 - Review of Philosophy and Psychology 5 (2):199-221.
    This position paper advocates combining formal epistemology and the new paradigm psychology of reasoning in the studies of conditionals and reasoning with uncertainty. The new paradigm psychology of reasoning is characterized by the use of probability theory as a rationality framework instead of classical logic, used by more traditional approaches to the psychology of reasoning. This paper presents a new interdisciplinary research program which involves both formal and experimental work. To illustrate the program, the paper discusses recent work on the (...)
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  10.  44
    Transitivity in Coherence-Based Probability Logic.Angelo Gilio, Niki Pfeifer & Giuseppe Sanfilippo - 2016 - Journal of Applied Logic 14:46-64.
    We study probabilistically informative (weak) versions of transitivity by using suitable definitions of defaults and negated defaults in the setting of coherence and imprecise probabilities. We represent p-consistent sequences of defaults and/or negated defaults by g-coherent imprecise probability assessments on the respective sequences of conditional events. Moreover, we prove the coherent probability propagation rules for Weak Transitivity and the validity of selected inference patterns by proving p-entailment of the associated knowledge bases. Finally, we apply our results to study selected probabilistic (...)
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  11. Uncertain Deductive Reasoning.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2011 - In K. Manktelow, D. E. Over & S. Elqayam (eds.), The Science of Reason: A Festschrift for Jonathan St B.T. Evans. Psychology Press. pp. 145--166.
    Probabilistic models have started to replace classical logic as the standard reference paradigm in human deductive reasoning. Mental probability logic emphasizes general principles where human reasoning deviates from classical logic, but agrees with a probabilistic approach (like nonmonotonicity or the conditional event interpretation of conditionals). -/- This contribution consists of two parts. In the first part we discuss general features of reasoning systems including consequence relations, how uncertainty may enter argument forms, probability intervals, and probabilistic informativeness. These concepts are of (...)
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  12.  3
    Probabilistic Inferences From Conjoined to Iterated Conditionals.Giuseppe Sanfilippo, Niki Pfeifer, D. E. Over & A. Gilio - 2018 - International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 93:103-118.
    There is wide support in logic, philosophy, and psychology for the hypothesis that the probability of the indicative conditional of natural language, P(if A then B), is the conditional probability of B given A, P(B|A). We identify a conditional which is such that P(if A then B)=P(B|A) with de Finetti's conditional event, B|A. An objection to making this identification in the past was that it appeared unclear how to form compounds and iterations of conditional events. In this paper, we illustrate (...)
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  13.  14
    Probabilities of Conditionals and Previsions of Iterated Conditionals.Giuseppe Sanfilippo, Angelo Gilio, David E. Over & Niki Pfeifer - 2020 - International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 121.
    We analyze selected iterated conditionals in the framework of conditional random quantities. We point out that it is instructive to examine Lewis's triviality result, which shows the conditions a conditional must satisfy for its probability to be the conditional probability. In our approach, however, we avoid triviality because the import-export principle is invalid. We then analyze an example of reasoning under partial knowledge where, given a conditional if A then Cas information, the probability of A should intuitively increase. We explain (...)
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  14.  3
    Centering and Compound Conditionals Under Coherence.A. Gilio, Niki Pfeifer & Giuseppe Sanfilippo - 2017 - In M. B. Ferraro, P. Giordani, B. Vantaggi, M. Gagolewski, Gilgameshgodman Gilgameshgodman, P. Grzegorzewski & O. Hryniewicz (eds.), Soft Methods for Data Science. Cham, Switzerland: pp. 253-260.
    There is wide support in logic, philosophy, and psychology for the hypothesis that the probability of the indicative conditional of natural language, P(if A then B), is the conditional probability of B given A, P(B|A). We identify a conditional which is such that P(if A then B)=P(B|A) with de Finetti’s conditional event, B | A. An objection to making this identification in the past was that it appeared unclear how to form compounds and iterations of conditional events. In this paper, (...)
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  15. Towards a Mental Probability Logic.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2005 - Psychologica Belgica 45 (1):71--99.
    We propose probability logic as an appropriate standard of reference for evaluating human inferences. Probability logical accounts of nonmonotonic reasoning with system p, and conditional syllogisms (modus ponens, etc.) are explored. Furthermore, we present categorical syllogisms with intermediate quantifiers, like the “most . . . ” quantifier. While most of the paper is theoretical and intended to stimulate psychological studies, we summarize our empirical studies on human nonmonotonic reasoning.
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  16. Probabilistic Theories of Reasoning Need Pragmatics Too: Modulating Relevance in Uncertain Conditionals.A. J. B. Fugard, Niki Pfeifer & B. Mayerhofer - 2011 - Journal of Pragmatics 43:2034–2042.
    According to probabilistic theories of reasoning in psychology, people's degree of belief in an indicative conditional `if A, then B' is given by the conditional probability, P(B|A). The role of language pragmatics is relatively unexplored in the new probabilistic paradigm. We investigated how consequent relevance a ects participants' degrees of belief in conditionals about a randomly chosen card. The set of events referred to by the consequent was either a strict superset or a strict subset of the set of events (...)
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  17.  25
    Conditionals, Counterfactuals, and Rational Reasoning: An Experimental Study on Basic Principles.Leena Tulkki & Niki Pfeifer - 2017 - Minds and Machines 27 (1):119-165.
    We present a unified approach for investigating rational reasoning about basic argument forms involving indicative conditionals, counterfactuals, and basic quantified statements within coherence-based probability logic. After introducing the rationality framework, we present an interactive view on the relation between normative and empirical work. Then, we report a new experiment which shows that people interpret indicative conditionals and counterfactuals by coherent conditional probability assertions and negate conditionals by negating their consequents. The data support the conditional probability interpretation of conditionals and the (...)
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  18.  16
    A Process Model of the Understanding of Uncertain Conditionals.Gernot D. Kleiter, Andrew J. B. Fugard & Niki Pfeifer - 2018 - Thinking and Reasoning 24 (3):386-422.
    ABSTRACTTo build a process model of the understanding of conditionals we extract a common core of three semantics of if-then sentences: the conditional event interpretation in the coherencebased probability logic, the discourse processingtheory of Hans Kamp, and the game-theoretical approach of Jaakko Hintikka. The empirical part reports three experiments in which each participant assessed the probability of 52 if-then sentencesin a truth table task. Each experiment included a second task: An n-back task relating the interpretation of conditionals to working memory, (...)
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  19.  3
    On Argument Strength.Niki Pfeifer - 2013 - In Frank Zenker (ed.), Bayesian argumentation. The practical side of probability. Dordrecht, Netherlands: pp. 185-193.
    Everyday life reasoning and argumentation is defeasible and uncertain. I present a probability logic framework to rationally reconstruct everyday life reasoning and argumentation. Coherence in the sense of de Finetti is used as the basic rationality norm. I discuss two basic classes of approaches to construct measures of argument strength. The first class imposes a probabilistic relation between the premises and the conclusion. The second class imposes a deductive relation. I argue for the second class, as the first class is (...)
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  20. Human Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities: Modus Ponens and Denying the Antecedent.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2007 - In Proceedings of the 5 T H International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. pp. 347--356.
    The modus ponens (A -> B, A :. B) is, along with modus tollens and the two logically not valid counterparts denying the antecedent (A -> B, ¬A :. ¬B) and affirming the consequent, the argument form that was most often investigated in the psychology of human reasoning. The present contribution reports the results of three experiments on the probabilistic versions of modus ponens and denying the antecedent. In probability logic these arguments lead to conclusions with imprecise probabilities. In the (...)
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  21.  1
    Probabilistic Squares and Hexagons of Opposition Under Coherence.Niki Pfeifer & Giuseppe Sanfilippo - 2017 - International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 88:282-294.
    Various semantics for studying the square of opposition and the hexagon of opposition have been proposed recently. We interpret sentences by imprecise (set-valued) probability assessments on a finite sequence of conditional events. We introduce the acceptability of a sentence within coherence-based probability theory. We analyze the relations of the square and of the hexagon in terms of acceptability. Then, we show how to construct probabilistic versions of the square and of the hexagon of opposition by forming suitable tripartitions of the (...)
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  22. Contemporary Syllogistics: Comparative and Quantitative Syllogisms.Niki Pfeifer - 2006 - In G. Kreuzbauer & G. J. W. Dorn (eds.), Argumentation in Theorie Und Praxis: Philosophie Und Didaktik des Argumentierens. Lit. pp. 57--71.
    Traditionally, syllogisms are arguments with two premises and one conclusion which are constructed by propositions of the form “All… are…” and “At least one… is…” and their respective negated versions. Unfortunately, the practical use of traditional syllogisms is quite restricted. On the one hand, the “All…” propositions are too strict, since a single counterexample suffices for falsification. On the other hand, the “At least one …” propositions are too weak, since a single example suffices for verification. The present contribution studies (...)
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  23.  1
    Generalized Probabilistic Modus Ponens.Giuseppe Sanfilippo, Niki Pfeifer & Angelo Gilio - 2017 - In A. Antonucci, L. Cholvy & O. Papini (eds.), Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty (Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence, vol. 10369). Cham, Switzerland: pp. 480-490.
    Modus ponens (from A and “if A then C” infer C) is one of the most basic inference rules. The probabilistic modus ponens allows for managing uncertainty by transmitting assigned uncertainties from the premises to the conclusion (i.e., from P(A) and P(C|A) infer P(C)). In this paper, we generalize the probabilistic modus ponens by replacing A by the conditional event A|H. The resulting inference rule involves iterated conditionals (formalized by conditional random quantities) and propagates previsions from the premises to the (...)
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  24.  2
    Probabilistic Entailment and Iterated Conditionals.A. Gilio, Niki Pfeifer & Giuseppe Sanfilippo - 2020 - In S. Elqayam, Igor Douven, J. St B. T. Evans & N. Cruz (eds.), Logic and uncertainty in the human mind: a tribute to David E. Over. London, UK: pp. 71-101.
    In this paper we exploit the notions of conjoined and iterated conditionals, which are defined in the setting of coherence by means of suitable conditional random quantities with values in the interval [0,1]. We examine the iterated conditional (B|K)|(A|H), by showing that A|H p-entails B|K if and only if (B|K)|(A|H) = 1. Then, we show that a p-consistent family F={E1|H1, E2|H2} p-entails a conditional event E3|H3 if and only if E3|H3= 1, or (E3|H3)|QC(S) = 1 for some nonempty subset S (...)
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  25. Nonmonotonicity and Human Probabilistic Reasoning.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2003 - In Proceedings of the 6 T H Workshop on Uncertainty Processing. pp. 221--234.
    Nonmonotonic logics allow—contrary to classical (monotone) logics— for withdrawing conclusions in the light of new evidence. Nonmonotonic reasoning is often claimed to mimic human common sense reasoning. Only a few studies, though, have investigated this claim empirically. system p is a central, broadly accepted nonmonotonic reasoning system that proposes basic rationality postulates. We previously investigated empirically a probabilistic interpretation of three selected rules of system p. We found a relatively good agreement of human reasoning and principles of nonmonotonic reasoning according (...)
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  26.  3
    Square of Opposition Under Coherence.Niki Pfeifer & Giuseppe Sanfilippo - 2017 - In M. B. Ferraro, Alessandro Giordani, B. Vantaggi, M. Gagolewski, M. Á Gil, P. Grzegorzewski & O. Hryniewicz (eds.), Soft Methods for Data Science. Cham, Switzerland: pp. 407-414.
    Various semantics for studying the square of opposition have been proposed recently. So far, only [14] studied a probabilistic version of the square where the sentences were interpreted by (negated) defaults. We extend this work by interpreting sentences by imprecise (set-valued) probability assessments on a sequence of conditional events. We introduce the acceptability of a sentence within coherence-based probability theory. We analyze the relations of the square in terms of acceptability and show how to construct probabilistic versions of the square (...)
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  27.  56
    Mental Probability Logic.Niki Pfeifer & Gernot D. Kleiter - 2009 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 32 (1):98-99.
    We discuss O&C's probabilistic approach from a probability logical point of view. Specifically, we comment on subjective probability, the indispensability of logic, the Ramsey test, the consequence relation, human nonmonotonic reasoning, intervals, generalized quantifiers, and rational analysis.
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  28.  17
    Transitive Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities.Angelo Gilio, Niki Pfeifer & Giuseppe Sanfilippo - 2015 - In S. Destercke & T. Denoeux (eds.), Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty (ECSQARU 2015). Springer LNAI 9161. pp. 95-105.
    We study probabilistically informative (weak) versions of transitivity by using suitable definitions of defaults and negated defaults in the setting of coherence and imprecise probabilities. We represent p-consistent sequences of defaults and/or negated defaults by g-coherent imprecise probability assessments on the respective sequences of conditional events. Finally, we present the coherent probability propagation rules for Weak Transitivity and the validity of selected inference patterns by proving p-entailment of the associated knowledge bases.
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  29. Is Human Reasoning About Nonmonotonic Conditionals Probabilistically Coherent?Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2006 - In Proceedings of the 7 T H Workshop on Uncertainty Processing. pp. 138--150.
    Nonmonotonic conditionals (A |∼ B) are formalizations of common sense expressions of the form “if A, normally B”. The nonmonotonic conditional is interpreted by a “high” coherent conditional probability, P(B|A) > .5. Two important properties are closely related to the nonmonotonic conditional: First, A |∼ B allows for exceptions. Second, the rules of the nonmonotonic system p guiding A |∼ B allow for withdrawing conclusions in the light of new premises. This study reports a series of three experiments on reasoning (...)
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  30.  42
    Uncertain Conditionals and Counterfactuals in (Non-)Causal Settings.Niki Pfeifer & R. Stöckle-Schobel - 2015 - In G. Arienti, B. G. Bara & G. Sandini (eds.), Proceedings of the EuroAsianPacific Joint Conference on Cognitive Science (4th European Conference on Cognitive Science; 10th International Conference on Cognitive Science). CEUR Workshop Proceedings. pp. 651-656.
    Conditionals are basic for human reasoning. In our paper, we present two experiments, which for the first time systematically compare how people reason about indicative conditionals (Experiment 1) and counterfactual conditionals (Experiment 2) in causal and non-causal task settings (N = 80). The main result of both experiments is that conditional probability is the dominant response pattern and thus a key ingredient for modeling causal, indicative, and counterfactual conditionals. In the paper, we will give an overview of the main experimental (...)
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  31.  23
    Probability Semantics for Aristotelian Syllogisms.Niki Pfeifer & Giuseppe Sanfilippo - manuscript
    We present a coherence-based probability semantics for (categorical) Aristotelian syllogisms. For framing the Aristotelian syllogisms as probabilistic inferences, we interpret basic syllogistic sentence types A, E, I, O by suitable precise and imprecise conditional probability assessments. Then, we define validity of probabilistic inferences and probabilistic notions of the existential import which is required, for the validity of the syllogisms. Based on a generalization of de Finetti's fundamental theorem to conditional probability, we investigate the coherent probability propagation rules of argument forms (...)
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  32.  31
    Systematic Rationality Norms Provide Research Roadmaps and Clarity.Niki Pfeifer - 2011 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 34 (5):263-264.
    Normative theories like probability logic provide roadmaps for psychological investigations. They make theorizing precise. Therefore, normative considerations should not be subtracted from psychological research. I explain why conditional elimination inferences involve at least two norm paradigms; why reporting agreement with rationality norms is informative; why alleged asymmetric relations between formal and psychological theories are symmetric; and I discuss the arbitration problem.
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  33.  87
    Towards a Probability Logic Based on Statistical Reasoning.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2006 - In Proceedings of the 11 T H Ipmu International Conference (Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems). pp. 2308--2315.
    Logical argument forms are investigated by second order probability density functions. When the premises are expressed by beta distributions, the conclusions usually are mixtures of beta distributions. If the shape parameters of the distributions are assumed to be additive (natural sampling), then the lower and upper bounds of the mixing distributions (P´olya-Eggenberger distributions) are parallel to the corresponding lower and upper probabilities in conditional probability logic.
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  34. Counterfactuals, Indicative Conditionals, and Negation Under Uncertainty: Are There Cross-Cultural Differences?Niki Pfeifer & H. Yama - 2017 - In G. Gunzelmann, A. Howes, T. Tenbrink & E. Davelaar (eds.), Proceedings of the 39th Cognitive Science Society Meeting. pp. 2882-2887.
    In this paper we study selected argument forms involving counterfactuals and indicative conditionals under uncertainty. We selected argument forms to explore whether people with an Eastern cultural background reason differently about conditionals compared to Westerners, because of the differences in the location of negations. In a 2x2 between-participants design, 63 Japanese university students were allocated to four groups, crossing indicative conditionals and counterfactuals, and each presented in two random task orders. The data show close agreement between the responses of Easterners (...)
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  35. A Probability Logical Interpretation of Fallacies.Niki Pfeifer - 2008 - In G. Kreuzbauer, N. Gratzl & E. Hiebl (eds.), Rhetorische Wissenschaft: Rede Und Argumentation in Theorie Und Praxis. Lit. pp. 225--244.
    This chapter presents a probability logical approach to fallacies. A special interpretation of (subjective) probability is used, which is based on coherence. Coherence provides not only a foundation of probability theory, but also a normative standard of reference for distinguishing fallacious from non-fallacious arguments. The violation of coherence is sufficient for an argument to be fallacious. The inherent uncertainty of everyday life argumentation is captured by attaching degrees of belief to the premises. Probability logic analyzes the structure of the argument (...)
     
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  36. Rational Argumentation Under Uncertainty.Niki Pfeifer - 2007 - In G. Kreuzbauer, N. Gratzl & E. Hiebl (eds.), Persuasion Und Wissenschaft: Aktuelle Fragestellungen von Rhetorik Und Argumentationstheorie. Lit. pp. 181--191.
    Common sense arguments are practically always about incomplete and uncertain information. We distinguish two aspects or kinds of uncertainty. The one is defined as a persons’ uncertainty about the truth of a sentence. The other uncertainty is defined as a persons’ uncertainty of his assessment of the truth of a sentence. In everyday life argumentation we are often faced with both kinds of uncertainty which should be distinguished to avoid misunderstandings among discussants. The paper presents a probabilistic account of both (...)
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  37.  19
    Probabilistic Interpretations of Argumentative Attacks: Logical and Experimental Foundations.Niki Pfeifer & C. G. Fermüller - 2018 - In V. Kratochvíl & J. Vejnarová (eds.), 11th Workshop on Uncertainty Processing (WUPES'18). Prague, Czechia: pp. 141-152.
    We present an interdisciplinary approach to study systematic relations between logical form and attacks between claims in an argumentative framework. We propose to generalize qualitative attack principles by quantitative ones. Specifically, we use coherent conditional probabilities to evaluate the rationality of principles which govern the strength of argumentative attacks. Finally, we present an experiment which explores the psychological plausibility of selected attack principles.
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  38. How People Interpret an Uncertain If.Andrew Jb Fugard, Niki Pfeifer, Bastian Mayerhofer & Gernot D. Kleiter - 2009 - In T. Kroupa & J. Vejnarova (eds.), Proceedings of the 8th Workshop on Uncertainty Processing. pp. 80-91.
    Conditionals are central to inference. Before people can draw inferences about a natural language conditional, they must interpret its meaning. We investigated interpretation of uncertain conditionals using a probabilistic truth table task, focussing on (i) conditional event, (ii) material conditional, and (iii) conjunction interpretations. The order of object (shape) and feature (color) in each conditional's antecedent and consequent was varied between participants. The conditional event was the dominant interpretation, followed by conjunction, and took longer to process than conjunction (mean di (...)
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  39. Cognition and Natural Disasters: Stimulating an Environmental Historical Debate.Niki Pfeifer - forthcoming - In E. Vaz, A. Melo & C. J. de Melo (eds.), Proceedings of the Second World Congress of Environmental History. Environmental History in the Making. Springer.
    Modern cognitive and clinical psychology offer insight into how people deal with natural disasters. In my methodological paper, I make a strong case for incorporating experimental findings and theoretical concepts of modern psychology into environmental historical disaster research. I show how psychological factors may influence the production and interpretation of historical sources with respect to perceptions of and responses to disasters. While previous psychological approaches to history mostly involve psychoanalysis, I focus on empirical psychology. Specifically, I review a number of (...)
     
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  40.  5
    Interpreting Connexive Principles in Coherence-Based Probability Logic.Niki Pfeifer & Giuseppe Sanfilippo - 2021 - In J. Vejnarová & J. Wilson (eds.), Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty (ECSQARU 2021, LNAI 12897). Cham: pp. 672-687.
    We present probabilistic approaches to check the validity of selected connexive principles within the setting of coherence. Connexive logics emerged from the intuition that conditionals of the form If ∼A, then A, should not hold, since the conditional’s antecedent ∼A contradicts its consequent A. Our approach covers this intuition by observing that for an event A the only coherent probability assessment on the conditional event A|~A is p(A|~A)=0 . Moreover, connexive logics aim to capture the intuition that conditionals should express (...)
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  41.  4
    What Society Can and Cannot Learn From Coherence: Theoretical and Practical Considerations.Niki Pfeifer & Andrea Capotorti - 2020 - In H. Yama & V. Salvano-Pardieu (eds.), Adapting Human Thinking and Moral Reasoning in Contemporary Society. Hershey, PA, USA: pp. 176-198.
    Society is facing uncertainty on a multitude of domains and levels: usually, reasoning and decisions about political, economic, or health issues must be made under uncertainty. Among various approaches to probability, this chapter presents the coherence approach to probability as a method for uncertainty management. The authors explain the role of uncertainty in the context of important societal issues like legal reasoning and vaccination hesitancy. Finally, the chapter presents selected psychological factors which impact probabilistic representation and reasoning and discusses what (...)
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  42.  18
    Probability Propagation in Selected Aristotelian Syllogisms.Niki Pfeifer - 2019 - In G. Kern-Isberner & Zoran Ognjanović (eds.), ECSQARU 2019: Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty. Cham: Springer. pp. 419-431.
    This paper continues our work on a coherence-based probability semantics for Aristotelian syllogisms (Gilio, Pfeifer, and Sanfilippo, 2016; Pfeifer and Sanfilippo, 2018) by studying Figure III under coherence. We interpret the syllogistic sentence types by suitable conditional probability assessments. Since the probabilistic inference of P|S from the premise set {.
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  43.  38
    Syllogistic Reasoning with Intermediate Quantifiers.Niki Pfeifer & Gernot D. Kleiter - manuscript
    A system of intermediate quantifiers (“Most S are P”, “m/n S are P”) is proposed for evaluating the rationality of human syllogistic reasoning. Some relations between intermediate quantifiers and probabilistic interpretations are discussed. The paper concludes by the generalization of the atmosphere, matching and conversion hypothesis to syllogisms with intermediate quantifiers. Since our experiments are currently still running, most of the paper is theoretical and intended to stimulate psychological studies.
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  44.  3
    Abductive, Causal, and Counterfactual Conditionals Under Incomplete Probabilistic Knowledge.Niki Pfeifer & Lena Tulkki - 2017 - In G. Gunzelmann, A. Howes, T. Tenbrink & E. Davelaar (eds.), Proceedings of the 39th Cognitive Science Society Meeting. pp. 2888-2893.
    We study abductive, causal, and non-causal conditionals in indicative and counterfactual formulations using probabilistic truth table tasks under incomplete probabilistic knowledge (N = 80). We frame the task as a probability-logical inference problem. The most frequently observed response type across all conditions was a class of conditional event interpretations of conditionals; it was followed by conjunction interpretations. An interesting minority of participants neglected some of the relevant imprecision involved in the premises when inferring lower or upper probability bounds on the (...)
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  45.  3
    Building Bridges Between the World and Claims About It: Commentary on Lumer's Paper "Strength of Justification. The Rational Degree of Certainty Approach".Niki Pfeifer - 2018 - London, UK: College Publications.
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  46. Die Zähmung des Zufalls: Ein Streifzug durch die Geschichte der Philosophie.Niki Pfeifer - forthcoming - In Zufall – rechtliche, philosophische und theologische Aspekte. Berlin, Germany:
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  47. Naturalized Formal Epistemology of Uncertain Reasoning.Niki Pfeifer - 2012 - Dissertation, The Tilburg Center for Logic and Philosophy of Science, Tilburg University
    This thesis consists of a collection of five papers on naturalized formal epistemology of uncertain reasoning. In all papers I apply coherence based probability logic to make fundamental epistemological questions precise and propose new solutions to old problems. I investigate the rational evaluation of uncertain arguments, develop a new measure of argument strength, and explore the semantics of uncertain indicative conditionals. Specifically, I study formally and empirically the semantics of negated apparently selfcontradictory conditionals (Aristotle’s theses), resolve a number of paradoxes (...)
     
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  48. On Mental Probability Logic.Niki Pfeifer - 2006 - Dissertation, Department of Psychology, University of Salzburg
    Mental probability logic is a psychological competence theory about how humans interpret and reason about common-sense conditionals. Probability logic is proposed as an appropriate standard of reference for evaluating the rationality of human inferences. Common-sense conditionals are interpreted as “high” conditional probabilities, P(B|A) > .5. Probability logical accounts of nonmonotonic reasoning and inference rules like the modus ponens are explored. Categorical syllogisms with comparative and quantitative quantifiers are investigated. A series of eight experiments on human probabilistic reasoning in the framework (...)
     
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  49. Probability Logic.Niki Pfeifer - forthcoming - In M. Knauff & Wolfgang Spohn (eds.), Handbook of Rationality. Cambridge, MA, USA:
    This chapter presents probability logic as a rationality framework for human reasoning under uncertainty. Selected formal-normative aspects of probability logic are discussed in the light of experimental evidence. Specifically, probability logic is characterized as a generalization of bivalent truth-functional propositional logic (short “logic”), as being connexive, and as being nonmonotonic. The chapter discusses selected argument forms and associated uncertainty propagation rules. Throughout the chapter, the descriptive validity of probability logic is compared to logic, which was used as the gold standard (...)
     
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  50. Proceedings of the 7 T H Workshop on Uncertainty Processing.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2006
    Nonmonotonic conditionals (A |∼ B) are formalizations of common sense expressions of the form “if A, normally B”. The nonmonotonic conditional is interpreted by a “high” coherent conditional probability, P(B|A) > .5. Two important properties are closely related to the nonmonotonic conditional: First, A |∼ B allows for exceptions. Second, the rules of the nonmonotonic system p guiding A |∼ B allow for withdrawing conclusions in the light of new premises. This study reports a series of three experiments on reasoning (...)
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