Results for 'Prediction'

996 found
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  1. Neuroscientific Prediction and the Intrusion of Intuitive Metaphysics.David Rose, Wesley Buckwalter & Shaun Nichols - 2015 - Cognitive Science 39 (7).
    How might advanced neuroscience—in which perfect neuro-predictions are possible—interact with ordinary judgments of free will? We propose that peoples' intuitive ideas about indeterminist free will are both imported into and intrude into their representation of neuroscientific scenarios and present six experiments demonstrating intrusion and importing effects in the context of scenarios depicting perfect neuro-prediction. In light of our findings, we suggest that the intuitive commitment to indeterminist free will may be resilient in the face of scientific evidence against such (...)
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  2. Prediction Versus Accommodation and the Risk of Overfitting.Christopher Hitchcock & Elliott Sober - 2004 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 55 (1):1-34.
    an observation to formulate a theory, it is no surprise that the resulting theory accurately captures that observation. However, when the theory makes a novel prediction—when it predicts an observation that was not used in its formulation—this seems to provide more substantial confirmation of the theory. This paper presents a new approach to the vexed problem of understanding the epistemic difference between prediction and accommodation. In fact, there are several problems that need to be disentangled; in all of (...)
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  3.  30
    Causation, Prediction, and Search.Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, Scheines N. & Richard - 2000 - Mit Press: Cambridge.
  4.  6
    Prediction‐Based Learning and Processing of Event Knowledge.Ken McRae, Kevin S. Brown & Jeffrey L. Elman - 2021 - Topics in Cognitive Science 13 (1):206-223.
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  5.  58
    Prediction and Accommodation Revisited.John Worrall - 2014 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 45 (1):54-61.
    The paper presents a further articulation and defence of the view on prediction and accommodation that I have proposed earlier. It operates by analysing two accounts of the issue-by Patrick Maher and by Marc Lange-that, at least at first sight, appear to be rivals to my own. Maher claims that the time-order of theory and evidence may be important in terms of degree of confirmation, while that claim is explicitly denied in my account. I argue, however, that when his (...)
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  6. Reward Prediction Error Signals Are Meta‐Representational.Nicholas Shea - 2014 - Noûs 48 (2):314-341.
    1. Introduction 2. Reward-Guided Decision Making 3. Content in the Model 4. How to Deflate a Metarepresentational Reading Proust and Carruthers on metacognitive feelings 5. A Deflationary Treatment of RPEs? 5.1 Dispensing with prediction errors 5.2 What is use of the RPE focused on? 5.3 Alternative explanations—worldly correlates 5.4 Contrast cases 6. Conclusion Appendix: Temporal Difference Learning Algorithms.
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  7.  23
    Prediction and Accommodation Revisited.John Worrall - 2014 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 45 (1):54-61.
    The paper presents a further articulation and defence of the view on prediction and accommodation that I have proposed earlier. It operates by analysing two accounts of the issue-by Patrick Maher and by Marc Lange-that, at least at first sight, appear to be rivals to my own. Maher claims that the time-order of theory and evidence may be important in terms of degree of confirmation, while that claim is explicitly denied in my account. I argue, however, that when his (...)
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  8.  3
    Surfing Uncertainty: Prediction, Action, and the Embodied Mind.Andy Clark - 2016 - Oxford University Press USA.
    How is it that thoroughly physical material beings such as ourselves can think, dream, feel, create and understand ideas, theories and concepts? How does mere matter give rise to all these non-material mental states, including consciousness itself? An answer to this central question of our existence is emerging at the busy intersection of neuroscience, psychology, artificial intelligence, and robotics.In this groundbreaking work, philosopher and cognitive scientist Andy Clark explores exciting new theories from these fields that reveal minds like ours to (...)
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  9.  36
    Prediction, Regressions and Critical Realism.Petter Næss - 2004 - Journal of Critical Realism 3 (1):133-164.
    This paper considers the possibility of prediction in land use planning, and the use of statistical research methods in analyses of relationships between urban form and travel behaviour. Influential writers within the tradition of critical realism reject the possibility of predicting social phenomena. This position is fundamentally problematic to public planning. Without at least some ability to predict the likely consequences of different proposals, the justification for public sector intervention into market mechanisms will be frail. Statistical methods like regression (...)
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  10. Reintroducing Prediction to Explanation.Heather E. Douglas - 2009 - Philosophy of Science 76 (4):444-463.
    Although prediction has been largely absent from discussions of explanation for the past 40 years, theories of explanation can gain much from a reintroduction. I review the history that divorced prediction from explanation, examine the proliferation of models of explanation that followed, and argue that accounts of explanation have been impoverished by the neglect of prediction. Instead of a revival of the symmetry thesis, I suggest that explanation should be understood as a cognitive tool that assists us (...)
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  11. On the Psychology of Prediction.Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky - 1973 - Psychological Review 80 (4):237-251.
    Considers that intuitive predictions follow a judgmental heuristic-representativeness. By this heuristic, people predict the outcome that appears most representative of the evidence. Consequently, intuitive predictions are insensitive to the reliability of the evidence or to the prior probability of the outcome, in violation of the logic of statistical prediction. The hypothesis that people predict by representativeness was supported in a series of studies with both naive and sophisticated university students. The ranking of outcomes by likelihood coincided with the ranking (...)
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  12.  78
    Prediction, Accommodation, and the Logic of Discovery.Patrick Maher - 1988 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988:273 - 285.
    A widely endorsed thesis in the philosophy of science holds that if evidence for a hypothesis was not known when the hypothesis was proposed, then that evidence confirms the hypothesis more strongly than would otherwise be the case. The thesis has been thought to be inconsistent with Bayesian confirmation theory, but the arguments offered for that view are fallacious. This paper shows how the special value of prediction can in fact be given Bayesian explanation. The explanation involves consideration of (...)
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  13.  92
    Prediction Versus Accommodation in Economics.Robert Northcott - 2019 - Journal of Economic Methodology 26 (1):59-69.
    Should we insist on prediction, i.e. on correctly forecasting the future? Or can we rest content with accommodation, i.e. empirical success only with respect to the past? I apply general considerations about this issue to the case of economics. In particular, I examine various ways in which mere accommodation can be sufficient, in order to see whether those ways apply to economics. Two conclusions result. First, an entanglement thesis: the need for prediction is entangled with the methodological role (...)
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  14.  88
    Prediction and the Periodic Table.Eric R. Scerri & John Worrall - 2001 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 32 (3):407-452.
    The debate about the relative epistemic weights carried in favour of a theory by predictions of new phenomena as opposed to accommodations of already known phenomena has a long history. We readdress the issue through a detailed re-examination of a particular historical case that has often been discussed in connection with it—that of Mendeleev and the prediction by his periodic law of the three ‘new’ elements, gallium, scandium and germanium. We find little support for the standard story that these (...)
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  15.  47
    Neuroscientific Prediction and the Intrusion of Intuitive Metaphysics.David Rose, Wesley Buckwalter & Shaun Nichols - 2017 - Cognitive Science 41 (2):482-502.
    How might advanced neuroscience—in which perfect neuro-predictions are possible—interact with ordinary judgments of free will? We propose that peoples' intuitive ideas about indeterminist free will are both imported into and intrude into their representation of neuroscientific scenarios and present six experiments demonstrating intrusion and importing effects in the context of scenarios depicting perfect neuro-prediction. In light of our findings, we suggest that the intuitive commitment to indeterminist free will may be resilient in the face of scientific evidence against such (...)
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  16.  15
    Events, Event Prediction, and Predictive Processing.Jakob Hohwy, Augustus Hebblewhite & Tom Drummond - 2021 - Topics in Cognitive Science 13 (1):252-255.
    Events and event prediction are pivotal concepts across much of cognitive science, as demonstrated by the papers in this special issue. We first discuss how the study of events and the predictive processing framework may fruitfully inform each other. We then briefly point to some links to broader philosophical questions about events.
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  17.  76
    On the Psychology of Prediction: Whose is the Fallacy?L. Jonathan Cohen - 1979 - Cognition 7 (December):385-407.
  18.  9
    Prediction Error and Regularity Detection Underlie Two Dissociable Mechanisms for Computing the Sense of Agency.Wen Wen & Patrick Haggard - 2020 - Cognition 195:104074.
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  19.  93
    Is Prediction Possible in General Relativity?John Byron Manchak - 2008 - Foundations of Physics 38 (4):317-321.
    Here we briefly review the concept of "prediction" within the context of classical relativity theory. We prove a theorem asserting that one may predict one's own future only in a closed universe. We then question whether prediction is possible at all (even in closed universes). We note that interest in prediction has stemmed from considering the epistemological predicament of the observer. We argue that the definitions of prediction found thus far in the literature do not fully (...)
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  20. Prediction Error Minimization, Mental and Developmental Disorder, and Statistical Theories of Consciousness.Jakob Hohwy - forthcoming - In Rocco Gennaro (ed.), Disturbed Consciousness: New Essays on Psychopathology and Theories of Consciousness. MIT Press.
    This chapter seeks to recover an approach to consciousness from a general theory of brain function, namely the prediction error minimization theory. The way this theory applies to mental and developmental disorder demonstrates its relevance to consciousness. The resulting view is discussed in relation to a contemporary theory of consciousness, namely the idea that conscious perception depends on Bayesian metacognition; this theory is also supported by considerations of psychopathology. This Bayesian theory is first disconnected from the higher-order thought theory, (...)
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  21.  63
    Prediction of External Events with Our Motor System: Towards a New Framework.Ricarda I. Schubotz - 2007 - Trends in Cognitive Sciences 11 (5):211-218.
  22. Prediction and Explanation in Historical Natural Science.Carol E. Cleland - 2011 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 62 (3):551-582.
    In earlier work ( Cleland [2001] , [2002]), I sketched an account of the structure and justification of ‘prototypical’ historical natural science that distinguishes it from ‘classical’ experimental science. This article expands upon this work, focusing upon the close connection between explanation and justification in the historical natural sciences. I argue that confirmation and disconfirmation in these fields depends primarily upon the explanatory (versus predictive or retrodictive) success or failure of hypotheses vis-à-vis empirical evidence. The account of historical explanation that (...)
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  23.  22
    Prediction and the 'Periodic Law': A Rejoinder to Barnes.John Worrall - 2005 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 36 (4):817-826.
  24.  5
    Infants’ Goal Prediction for Simple Action Events: The Role of Experience and Agency Cues.Birgit Elsner & Maurits Adam - 2021 - Topics in Cognitive Science 13 (1):45-62.
    Looking times and gaze behavior indicate that infants can predict the goal state of an observed simple action event (e.g., object‐directed grasping) already in the first year of life. The present paper mainly focuses on infants’ predictive gaze‐shifts toward the goal of an ongoing action. For this, infants need to generate a forward model of the to‐be‐obtained goal state and to disengage their gaze from the moving agent at a time when information about the action event is still incomplete. By (...)
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  25.  35
    Accommodation, Prediction and Bayesian Confirmation Theory.Colin Howson - 1988 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988:381 - 392.
    This paper examines the famous doctrine that independent prediction garners more support than accommodation. The standard arguments for the doctrine are found to be invalid, and a more realistic position is put forward, that whether evidence supports or not a hypothesis depends on the prior probability of the hypothesis, and is independent of whether it was proposed before or after the evidence. This position is implicit in the subjective Bayesian theory of confirmation, and the paper ends with a brief (...)
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  26.  19
    Brittleness Prediction for the Lower Paleozoic Shales in Northern Poland.Marta Cyz, Marta Mulińska, Radomir Pachytel & Michał Malinowski - 2018 - Interpretation: SEG 6 (3):SH13-SH23.
    We have tested brittleness prediction by integrating well and 3D seismic data using machine learning for Lower Paleozoic shales from the Baltic Basin in northern Poland. The workflow allowed for differentiation of the brittle and ductile zones of the thin shale layers, as well as mapping of the marly formation with superior resolution as compared with the resolution of the original input seismic data. The important part of the success was the appropriate definition of the mineralogical brittleness index tailored (...)
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  27.  7
    Prediction of Future Terrorist Activities Using Deep Neural Networks.M. Irfan Uddin, Nazir Zada, Furqan Aziz, Yousaf Saeed, Asim Zeb, Syed Atif Ali Shah, Mahmoud Ahmad Al-Khasawneh & Marwan Mahmoud - 2020 - Complexity 2020:1-16.
    One of the most important threats to today’s civilization is terrorism. Terrorism not only disturbs the law and order situations in a society but also affects the quality of lives of humans and makes them suppressed physically and emotionally and deprives them of enjoying life. The more the civilizations have advanced, the more the people are working towards exploring different mechanisms to protect the mankind from terrorism. Different techniques have been used as counterterrorism to protect the lives of individuals in (...)
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  28.  35
    Prediction or Prophecy? The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences.Gregor Betz - 2006 - DUV.
    Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?
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  29. Prediction in Selectionist Evolutionary Theory.Rasmus Grønfeldt Winther - 2009 - Philosophy of Science 76 (5):889-901.
    Selectionist evolutionary theory has often been faulted for not making novel predictions that are surprising, risky, and correct. I argue that it in fact exhibits the theoretical virtue of predictive capacity in addition to two other virtues: explanatory unification and model fitting. Two case studies show the predictive capacity of selectionist evolutionary theory: parallel evolutionary change in E. coli, and the origin of eukaryotic cells through endosymbiosis.
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  30.  9
    Sign Prediction on Unlabeled Social Networks Using Branch and Bound Optimized Transfer Learning.Weiwei Yuan, Jiali Pang, Donghai Guan, Yuan Tian, Abdullah Al-Dhelaan & Mohammed Al-Dhelaan - 2019 - Complexity 2019:1-11.
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  31. Models for Prediction, Explanation and Control: Recursive Bayesian Networks.Jon Williamson - 2011 - Theoria: Revista de Teoría, Historia y Fundamentos de la Ciencia 26 (1):5-33.
    The Recursive Bayesian Net (RBN) formalism was originally developed for modelling nested causal relationships. In this paper we argue that the formalism can also be applied to modelling the hierarchical structure of mechanisms. The resulting network contains quantitative information about probabilities, as well as qualitative information about mechanistic structure and causal relations. Since information about probabilities, mechanisms and causal relations is vital for prediction, explanation and control respectively, an RBN can be applied to all these tasks. We show in (...)
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  32. Experience and Prediction.Hans Reichenbach - 1938 - University of Chicago Press.
  33.  45
    Prediction, Explanation, and the Role of Generative Models in Language Processing.Thomas A. Farmer, Meredith Brown & Michael K. Tanenhaus - 2013 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 36 (3):211-212.
    We propose, following Clark, that generative models also play a central role in the perception and interpretation of linguistic signals. The data explanation approach provides a rationale for the role of prediction in language processing and unifies a number of phenomena, including multiple-cue integration, adaptation effects, and cortical responses to violations of linguistic expectations.
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  34.  29
    Solomonoff Prediction and Occam’s Razor.Tom F. Sterkenburg - 2016 - Philosophy of Science 83 (4):459-479.
    Algorithmic information theory gives an idealized notion of compressibility that is often presented as an objective measure of simplicity. It is suggested at times that Solomonoff prediction, or algorithmic information theory in a predictive setting, can deliver an argument to justify Occam’s razor. This article explicates the relevant argument and, by converting it into a Bayesian framework, reveals why it has no such justificatory force. The supposed simplicity concept is better perceived as a specific inductive assumption, the assumption of (...)
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  35.  6
    Prediction of Vicarious Trial and Error by Means of the Schematic Sowbug.E. C. Tolman - 1939 - Psychological Review 46 (4):318-336.
  36.  36
    Prediction in Social Science - The Case of Research on the Human Resource Management-Organisational Performance Link.SteveAnthony FleetwoodHesketh - 2006 - Journal of Critical Realism 5 (2):228-250.
    _ Source: _Volume 5, Issue 2, pp 228 - 250 Despite inroads made by critical realism against the ‘scientific method’ in social science, the latter remains strong in subject-areas like human resource management. One argument for the alleged superiority of the scientific method lies in the taken-for-granted belief that it alone can formulate empirically testable predictions. Many of those who employ the scientific method are, however, confused about the way they understand and practice prediction. This paper takes as a (...)
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  37.  84
    Reason and Prediction.Simon Blackburn - 1973 - London: Cambridge University Press.
    An original study of the philosophical problems associated with inductive reasoning. Like most of the main questions in epistemology, the classical problem of induction arises from doubts about a mode of inference used to justify some of our most familiar and pervasive beliefs. The experience of each individual is limited and fragmentary, yet the scope of our beliefs is much wider; and it is the relation between belief and experience, in particular the belief that the future will in some respects (...)
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  38.  95
    The Epistemic Advantage of Prediction Over Accommodation.Roger White - 2003 - Mind 112 (448):653-683.
    According to the thesis of Strong Predictionism, we typically have stronger evidence for a theory if it was used to predict certain data, than if it was deliberately constructed to accommodate those same data, even if we fully grasp the theory and all the evidence on which it was based. This thesis faces powerful objections and the existing arguments in support of it are seriously flawed. I offer a new defence of Strong Predictionism which overcomes the objections and provides a (...)
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  39.  15
    Prediction in Social Science: The Case of Research on the Human Resource Management-Organisational Performance Link.Steve Fleetwood & Anthony Hesketh - 2006 - Journal of Critical Realism 5 (2):228-250.
    _ Source: _Volume 5, Issue 2, pp 228 - 250 Despite inroads made by critical realism against the ‘scientific method’ in social science, the latter remains strong in subject-areas like human resource management. One argument for the alleged superiority of the scientific method lies in the taken-for-granted belief that it alone can formulate empirically testable predictions. Many of those who employ the scientific method are, however, confused about the way they understand and practice prediction. This paper takes as a (...)
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  40.  63
    Prediction of Whistleblowing or Non-Reporting Observation: The Role of Personal and Situational Factors. [REVIEW]P. G. Cassematis & R. Wortley - 2013 - Journal of Business Ethics 117 (3):615-634.
    This study examined whether it was possible to classify Australian public sector employees as either whistleblowers or non-reporting observers using personal and situational variables. The personal variables were demography (gender, public sector tenure, organisational tenure and age), work attitudes (job satisfaction, trust in management, whistleblowing propensity) and employee behaviour (organisational citizenship behaviour). The situational variables were perceived personal victimisation, fear of reprisals and perceived wrongdoing seriousness. These variables were used as predictors in a series of binary logistic regressions. It was (...)
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  41. Rational Prediction.Wesley C. Salmon - 1981 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 32 (2):115-125.
  42.  20
    Prediction, Understanding, and Medicine.Alex Broadbent - 2018 - Journal of Medicine and Philosophy 43 (3):289-305.
    What is medicine? One obvious answer in the context of the contemporary clinical tradition is that medicine is the process of curing sick people. However, this “curative thesis” is not satisfactory, even when “cure” is defined generously and even when exceptions such as cosmetic surgery are set aside. Historian of medicine Roy Porter argues that the position of medicine in society has had, and still has, little to do with its ability to make people better. Moreover, the efficacy of medicine (...)
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  43.  10
    Genetic Prediction.Eric Turkheimer - 2015 - Hastings Center Report 45 (S1):S32-S38.
  44.  56
    The Prediction Paradox.Paul Wkiss - 1952 - Mind 61 (242):265-269.
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  45. Prediction.Gregor Betz - 2011 - In Ian Jarvie & Jesus Zamora-Bonilla (eds.), Handbook of Philosophy of Social Science. Sage Publications.
    Predictive success as an aim of science -- On the very possibility of prediction in the social sciences -- Empirical facts about social prediction: its mode, object and performance -- Understanding poor forecast performance.
     
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  46.  13
    Oculomotor Prediction: A Window Into the Psychotic Mind.Katharine N. Thakkar, Vaibhav A. Diwadkar & Martin Rolfs - 2017 - Trends in Cognitive Sciences 21 (5):344-356.
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  47. Parkinson’s Disease Prediction Using Artificial Neural Network.Ramzi M. Sadek, Salah A. Mohammed, Abdul Rahman K. Abunbehan, Abdul Karim H. Abdul Ghattas, Majed R. Badawi, Mohamed N. Mortaja, Bassem S. Abu-Nasser & Samy S. Abu-Naser - 2019 - International Journal of Academic Health and Medical Research (IJAHMR) 3 (1):1-8.
    Parkinson's Disease (PD) is a long-term degenerative disorder of the central nervous system that mainly affects the motor system. The symptoms generally come on slowly over time. Early in the disease, the most obvious are shaking, rigidity, slowness of movement, and difficulty with walking. Doctors do not know what causes it and finds difficulty in early diagnosing the presence of Parkinson’s disease. An artificial neural network system with back propagation algorithm is presented in this paper for helping doctors in identifying (...)
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  48.  14
    Prediction of the Nature of Hafnium From Chemistry, Bohr's Theory and Quantum Theory.Eric R. Scerri - 1994 - Annals of Science 51 (2):137-150.
    The chemical nature of element 72, subsequently named hafnium, is generally regarded as a prediction from Bohr's theory of the periodic system and hence as a prediction from quantum theory. It is argued that both of these views and in particular the latter are mistaken. The claim in favour of Bohr's theory is weakened by his accommodation of independent chemical arguments and the claim in favour of quantum theory is untenable since the prediction is not strictly deductive.
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  49.  19
    Universal Prediction.Tom F. Sterkenburg - 2018 - Dissertation, University of Groningen
    In this thesis I investigate the theoretical possibility of a universal method of prediction. A prediction method is universal if it is always able to learn from data: if it is always able to extrapolate given data about past observations to maximally successful predictions about future observations. The context of this investigation is the broader philosophical question into the possibility of a formal specification of inductive or scientific reasoning, a question that also relates to modern-day speculation about a (...)
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  50.  45
    Prediction of Multivariate Chaotic Time Series Via Radial Basis Function Neural Network.Diyi Chen & Wenting Han - 2013 - Complexity 18 (4):55-66.
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