Results for 'Predictive Thought Systems'

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  1.  39
    Outcome Predictions and Property Attribution: The EPR Argument Reconsidered.GianCarlo Ghirardi & Renata Grassi - 1994 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 25 (3):397-423.
    We reconsider the nonlocal aspects of quantum mechanics with special reference to the EPR argument. We first confine our considerations to the correlations between the outcomes of measurements on spatially distant constituents, without worrying about the measurement problem. We pay particular attention to the relativistic aspects of the problem. Our first conclusion is that, when developed along the lines we follow, the EPR inference that quantum correlations and locality together imply incompleteness, is appropriate. We then investigate whether the other common (...)
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  2.  6
    Predictable and Self-Initiated Visual Motion is Judged to Be Slower Than Computer Generated Motion.John A. Dewey & Thomas H. Carr - 2013 - Consciousness and Cognition 22 (3):987-995.
    Self-initiated action effects are often perceived as less intense than identical but externally generated stimuli. It is thought that forward models within the sensorimotor system pre-activate cortical representations of predicted action effects, reducing perceptual sensitivity and attenuating neural responses. As self-agency and predictability are seldom manipulated simultaneously in behavioral experiments, it is unclear if self-other differences depend on predictable action effect contingencies, or if both self- and externally generated stimuli are modulated similarly by predictability. We factorially combined variation in (...)
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  3. Social Systems.Heidi L. Maibom - 2007 - Philosophical Psychology 20 (5):557 – 578.
    It used to be thought that folk psychology is the only game in town. Focusing merely on what people do will not allow you to predict what they are likely to do next. For that, you must consider their beliefs, desires, intentions, etc. Recent evidence from developmental psychology and fMRI studies indicates that this conclusion was premature. We parse motion in an environment as behavior of a particular type, and behavior thus construed can feature in systematizations that we know. (...)
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  4.  22
    Forecasting, Prediction and Precision: A Commentary.Jamie Morgan - 2012 - Economic Thought 1 (2).
    Forecasting involves an underlying conceptualization of probability. It is this that gives sense to the notion of precision in number that makes us think of economic forecasting as more than simply complicated guesswork. We think of it as well-founded statement, a science and not an art of numbers. However, this understanding is at odds with the nature of social reality and the attributes of the forecaster. We should think differently about how we both anticipate and make the future and what (...)
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  5.  1
    Investigating Tree Family Machine Learning Techniques for a Predictive System to Unveil Software Defects.Rashid Naseem, Bilal Khan, Arshad Ahmad, Ahmad Almogren, Saima Jabeen, Bashir Hayat & Muhammad Arif Shah - 2020 - Complexity 2020:1-21.
    Software defects prediction at the initial period of the software development life cycle remains a critical and important assignment. Defect prediction and correctness leads to the assurance of the quality of software systems and has remained integral to study in the previous years. The quick forecast of imperfect or defective modules in software development can serve the development squad to use the existing assets competently and effectively to provide remarkable software products in a given short timeline. Hitherto, several researchers (...)
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  6.  63
    Why Ritualized Behavior? Precaution Systems and Action Parsing in Developmental, Pathological and Cultural Rituals.Pascal Boyer & Pierre Liénard - 2006 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 29 (6):595-613.
    Ritualized behavior, intuitively recognizable by its stereotypy, rigidity, repetition, and apparent lack of rational motivation, is found in a variety of life conditions, customs, and everyday practices: in cultural rituals, whether religious or non-religious; in many children's complicated routines; in the pathology of obsessive-compulsive disorders (OCD); in normal adults around certain stages of the life-cycle, birthing in particular. Combining evidence from evolutionary anthropology, neuropsychology and neuroimaging, we propose an explanation of ritualized behavior in terms of an evolved Precaution System geared (...)
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  7.  21
    Should “Systems Thinkers” Accept the Limits on Political Forecasting or Push the Limits?Philip E. Tetlock, Michael C. Horowitz & Richard Herrmann - 2012 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 24 (3):375-391.
    Historical analysis and policy making often require counterfactual thought experiments that isolate hypothesized causes from a vast array of historical possibilities. However, a core precept of Jervis's ?systems thinking? is that causes are so interconnected that the historian can only with great difficulty imagine causation by subtracting all variables but one. Prediction, according to Jervis, is even more problematic: The more sensitive an event is to initial conditions (e.g., butterfly effects), the harder it is to derive accurate forecasts. (...)
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  8.  87
    Predictive Perceptual Systems.Nico Orlandi - 2018 - Synthese 195 (6):2367-2386.
    This article attempts to clarify the commitments of a predictive coding approach to perception. After summarizing predictive coding theory, the article addresses two questions. Is a predictive coding perceptual system also a Bayesian system? Is it a Kantian system? The article shows that the answer to these questions is negative.
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  9.  11
    The Intermediate Scope of Consciousness in the Predictive Mind.Francesco Marchi & Jakob Hohwy - forthcoming - Erkenntnis:1-22.
    There is a view on consciousness that has strong intuitive appeal and empirical support: the intermediate-level theory of consciousness, proposed mainly by Ray Jackendoff and by Jesse Prinz. This theory identifies a specific “intermediate” level of representation as the basis of human phenomenal consciousness, which sits between high-level non-perspectival thought processes and low-level disjointed feature-detection processes in the perceptual and cognitive processing hierarchy. In this article, we show that the claim that consciousness arises at an intermediate-level is true of (...)
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  10. On the Spatial Foundations of the Conceptual System and Its Enrichment.Jean M. Mandler - 2012 - Cognitive Science 36 (3):421-451.
    A theory of how concept formation begins is presented that accounts for conceptual activity in the first year of life, shows how increasing conceptual complexity comes about, and predicts the order in which new types of information accrue to the conceptual system. In a compromise between nativist and empiricist views, it offers a single domain-general mechanism that redescribes attended spatiotemporal information into an iconic form. The outputs of this mechanism consist of types of spatial information that we know infants attend (...)
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  11.  6
    The Predictable Inequities of COVID-19 in the US: Fundamental Causes and Broken Institutions.Sean A. Valles - 2020 - Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal 30 (3):191-214.
    “Nobody had ever seen anything like this before.”“Nobody would have ever thought a thing like this could have happened.”There is a lot at stake in the current and forthcoming debates over what/why/how the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on the US were unpredictable. These debates are crucial to both our assessments of backward-looking culpability and in the related but even more socially important task of guiding decisions about how to rebuild society after the pandemic subsides. The more we treat the harm (...)
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  12.  14
    Economics and Research Assessment Systems.Donald Gillies - 2012 - Economic Thought 1 (1):23-47.
    This paper seeks to analyse the effects on Economics of Research Assessment Systems, such as the Research Assessment Exercise which was carried out in the UK between 1986 and 2008. The paper begins by pointing out that, in the 2008 RAE, economics turned out to be the research area which was accorded the highest valuation of any subject in the UK, even though economists were then under attack for failing to predict the global financial crash which had occurred a (...)
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  13.  29
    Challenges for the Sequential Two-System Model of Moral Judgement.Burcu Gürçay & Jonathan Baron - 2017 - Thinking and Reasoning 23 (1):49-80.
    Considerable evidence supports the sequential two-system model of moral judgement, as proposed by Greene and others. We tested whether judgement speed and/or personal/impersonal moral dilemmas can predict the kind of moral judgements subjects make for each dilemma, and whether personal dilemmas create difficulty in moral judgements. Our results showed that neither personal/impersonal conditions nor spontaneous/thoughtful-reflection conditions were reliable predictors of utilitarian or deontological moral judgements. Yet, we found support for an alternative view, in which, when the two types of responses (...)
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  14.  29
    Mental Algorithms: Are Minds Computational Systems?James H. Fetzer - 1994 - Pragmatics and Cognition 21 (1):1-29.
    The idea that human thought requires the execution of mental algorithms provides a foundation for research programs in cognitive science, which are largely based upon the computational conception of language and mentality. Consideration is given to recent work by Penrose, Searle, and Cleland, who supply various grounds for disputing computationalism. These grounds in turn qualify as reasons for preferring a non-computational, semiotic approach, which can account for them as predictable manifestations of a more adquate conception. Thinking does not ordinarily (...)
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  15.  16
    Mental Algorithms: Are Minds Computational Systems?James H. Fetzer - 1994 - Pragmatics and Cognition 2 (1):1-29.
    The idea that human thought requires the execution of mental algorithms provides a foundation for research programs in cognitive science, which are largely based upon the computational conception of language and mentality. Consideration is given to recent work by Penrose, Searle, and Cleland, who supply various grounds for disputing computationalism. These grounds in turn qualify as reasons for preferring a non-computational, semiotic approach, which can account for them as predictable manifestations of a more adquate conception. Thinking does not ordinarily (...)
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  16.  18
    Regularity in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems.D. Lynn Holt & R. Glynn Holt - 1993 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 44 (4):711-727.
    Laws of nature have been traditionally thought to express regularities in the systems which they describe, and, via their expression of regularities, to allow us to explain and predict the behavior of these systems. Using the driven simple pendulum as a paradigm, we identify three senses that regularity might have in connection with nonlinear dynamical systems: periodicity, uniqueness, and perturbative stability. Such systems are always regular only in the second of these senses, and that sense (...)
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  17.  42
    Toward a Model of Functional Brain Processes I: Central Nervous System Functional Micro-Architecture.Mark Bickhard - 2015 - Axiomathes 25 (3):217-238.
    Standard semantic information processing models—information in; information processed; information out —lend themselves to standard models of the functioning of the brain in terms, e.g., of threshold-switch neurons connected via classical synapses. That is, in terms of sophisticated descendants of McCulloch and Pitts models. I argue that both the cognition and the brain sides of this framework are incorrect: cognition and thought are not constituted as forms of semantic information processing, and the brain does not function in terms of passive (...)
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  18. The Thought Experiment of Maxwell’s Demon and the Origin of Irreversibility.Aspasia S. Moue - 2008 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 39 (1):69 - 84.
    The problem of the irreversibility’s origin in thermodynamic processes occupies a distinguished place among many and lasting attempts by researchers to derive irreversibility from molecular-mechanical principles. However, this problem is still open and no universally accepted solution may be given during any course. In this paper, I shall try to show that the examining of Maxwell’s demon thought experiment may provide insight into the difficulties that emerge, looking for this origin because: (i) it is connected with the notion of (...)
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  19. Predicting Complex Systems with a Holistic Approach: The “Throughput” Criterion.Alfred W. Hübler - 2005 - Complexity 10 (3):11-16.
  20. Autonomous Weapon Systems, Asymmetrical Warfare, and Myth.Michal Klincewicz - 2018 - Civitas. Studia Z Filozofii Polityki 23:179-195.
    Predictions about autonomous weapon systems are typically thought to channel fears that drove all the myths about intelligence embodied in matter. One of these is the idea that the technology can get out of control and ultimately lead to horrifi c consequences, as is the case in Mary Shelley’s classic Frankenstein. Given this, predictions about AWS are sometimes dismissed as science-fiction fear-mongering. This paper considers several analogies between AWS and other weapon systems and ultimately offers an argument (...)
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  21.  10
    The Thought Experiment of Maxwell’s Demon and the Origin of Irreversibility.Aspasia S. Moue - 2008 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 39 (1):69-84.
    The problem of the irreversibility's origin in thermodynamic processes occupies a distinguished place among many and lasting attempts by researchers to derive irreversibility from molecular-mechanical principles. However, this problem is still open and no universally accepted solution may be given during any course. In this paper, I shall try to show that the examining of Maxwell's demon thought experiment may provide insight into the difficulties that emerge, looking for this origin because: it is connected with the notion of irreversibility, (...)
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  22.  1
    “Weak Thought” and the Reduction of Violence.Gianni Vattimo, Santiago Zabala & Translated by Yaakov Mascetti - 2019 - Common Knowledge 25 (1-3):92-103.
    In this interview Vattimo discusses with Zabala the possibility of a nihilist philosophy of law as an alternative to the idea of justice and the violence that predictably results from it. To make this substitution would involve the redirection of humanity away from its self-understanding as progressively approaching a metaphysical truth that is eternal and toward the acceptance of an already existing “polytheism of values,” where truth is a contingent and changing product of discursiveness. A society that structures its legal (...)
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  23.  20
    Some Thoughts on Akin's Spiteful Computer.Ben Goertzel - 1994 - Minds and Machines 4 (1):75-80.
    Akin''s determinism paradox involves a physical system that predicts its own behavior, and then spitefully defies it. Here this paradox is reformulated in purely computational language, in terms of virtual machines. The paradox is related to the theory of self-reproducing automata; and a mathematical conjecture is given which, if verified, would resolve the paradox.
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  24.  47
    Middle Knowledge and Classical Christian Thought.David Basinger - 1986 - Religious Studies 22 (3-4):407 - 422.
    To say that God is omniscient, most philosophers and theologians agree, is to say that he knows all true propositions and none that are false. But there is a great deal of disagreement about what is knowable. Some believe that God's knowledge is limited to everything that is actual and that which will follow deterministically from it. He knows, for example, exactly what Caesar was thinking when he crossed the Rubicon and how many horses he had in his army that (...)
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  25. Sketches of Thought: A Study of the Role of Sketching in Design Problem-Solving and its Implications for the Computational Theory of Mind.Vinod Goel - 1991 - Dissertation, University of California, Berkeley
    Much of cognitive science is based on the Computational Theory of Mind hypothesis. The claim is that the mind is in part a computer and as such requires a representational medium--a language of thought--in which to represent information and to carry out computations. ;But the Computational Theory of Mind is much more than a bland commitment to internal representations. It requires that the system of representation have some very stringent properties. In this dissertation it is demonstrated that, depending on (...)
     
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  26.  21
    Peirce, Muybridge, and the Moving Pictures of Thought.Richard Kenneth Atkins - 2017 - Transactions of the Charles S. Peirce Society 53 (4):511.
    The System of Existential Graphs may be characterized with great truth as presenting before our eyes a moving picture of thought. Provided this characterization be taken not as a flatly literal statement, but as a simile, it will, I venture to predict, surprise you to find what a strain of detailed comparison it will bear without snapping.Peirce once called his graphical system of logic—the Existential Graphs or EGs—the moving pictures of thought. In this essay, I argue that Peirce (...)
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  27.  3
    Abstraction: An Alternative Neurocognitive Account of Recognition, Prediction, and Decision Making.Valerie F. Reyna & David A. Broniatowski - 2020 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 43.
    Gilead et al. offer a thoughtful and much-needed treatment of abstraction. However, it fails to build on an extensive literature on abstraction, representational diversity, neurocognition, and psychopathology that provides important constraints and alternative evidence-based conceptions. We draw on conceptions in software engineering, socio-technical systems engineering, and a neurocognitive theory with abstract representations of gist at its core, fuzzy-trace theory.
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  28.  2
    Prediction of Systemic Risk Contagion Based on a Dynamic Complex Network Model Using Machine Learning Algorithm.Jiannan Yu & Jinlou Zhao - 2020 - Complexity 2020:1-13.
    It is well known that the interbank market is able to effectively provide financial liquidity for the entire banking system and maintain the stability of the financial market. In this paper, we develop an innovative complex network approach to simulate an interbank network with systemic risk contagion that takes into account the balance sheet of each bank, from which we can identify if the financial institutions have sufficient capital reserves to prevent risk contagion. Cascading defaults are also generated in the (...)
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  29.  12
    Climbing Jacob's Ladder: Crisis, Chiliasm, and Transcendence in the Thought of Paul Nagel (†1624), a Lutheran Dissident During the Time of the Thirty Years' War.Leigh T. I. Penman - 2010 - Intellectual History Review 20 (2):201-226.
    Although now forgotten, Paul Nagel was one of the most notorious seventeenth?century critics of orthodox Lutheranism. His Prognosticon Astrologo?Cabalisticum (1618) and Stellae Prodigiosae (1619), in which he sketched a complex astrological?prophetic system, were followed by numerous books and pamphlets over the next five years in which he predicted the arrival of the Last Judgement in 1666. Although the failure of his prophecies for 1624 led to a collapse of interest in his prognostications, he turns out to have been a key (...)
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  30.  16
    Using Deep Learning to Predict Complex Systems: A Case Study in Wind Farm Generation.J. M. Torres & R. M. Aguilar - 2018 - Complexity 2018:1-10.
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  31. Philip Gerrans, The Measure of Madness. Philosophy of Mind, Cognitive Neuroscience, and Delusional Thought, MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts – London, 2014, pp. 274. [REVIEW]E. Loria - 2017 - Aphex 15:1-13.
    The Australian philosopher Philip Gerrans ambitiously tries to provide a general theory about the formation of delusions that should enclose neuronal, cognitive and phenomenological levels of description. His theory is defined as narrative and it is grounded on the so called “default thoughts”, that consist in simulations, autobiographical narrative fragments produced by the Default Mode Network (DMN). The DMN is a powerful simulation system that evolved to allow humans to simulate and imagine experiences in the absence of an eliciting stimulus. (...)
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  32.  5
    Dreaming Through the Ages: Towards a Global History of Utopian and Dystopian Thought.Christos Efstathiou - 2021 - Modern Intellectual History 18 (1):275-287.
    For the five hundred years since Thomas More first depicted the island of Utopia, the portrayal of an ideal social system has intrigued generations of authors. The concept served a double purpose: it applied to an ideal place but also an imaginary, unrealizable one. Although the search for utopia started from the Classical Age, More invented the genre and hundreds of utopian thinkers followed in his footsteps trying to predict how life would unfold and provide a detailed description of an (...)
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  33.  4
    Are the Aristotelian Conversion Rules Easy for Human Thought?Miguel López-Astorga - 2017 - SATS 18 (2):115-124.
    Drawing on the theory of ‘mental models’, I have previously shown that the valid syllogisms in the Aristotelian logical system, including all of its figures and moods, are very easy for the human mind. Indeed, they can even be used to predict inferences that people can make with quantified sentences. In this paper, I further argue that, if mental models theory is correct, then also the Aristotelian conversion rules are not hard for the human mind. My account here again focuses (...)
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  34.  45
    How Do Theories of Cognition and Consciousness in Ancient Indian Thought Systems Relate to Current Western Theorizing and Research?Peter Sedlmeier & Kunchapudi Srinivas - 2016 - Frontiers in Psychology 7.
    Unknown to most Western psychologists, ancient Indian scriptures contain very rich, empirically derived psychological theories that are, however, intertwined with religious and philosophical content. This article represents our attempt to extract the psychological theory of cognition and consciousness from a prominent ancient Indian thought system: Samkhya-Yoga. We derive rather broad hypotheses from this approach that may complement and extend Western mainstream theorizing. These hypotheses address an ancient personality theory, the effects of practicing the applied part of Samkhya-Yoga on normal (...)
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  35.  78
    Predictive Coding and Thought.Daniel Williams - 2020 - Synthese 197 (4):1749-1775.
    Predictive processing has recently been advanced as a global cognitive architecture for the brain. I argue that its commitments concerning the nature and format of cognitive representation are inadequate to account for two basic characteristics of conceptual thought: first, its generality—the fact that we can think and flexibly reason about phenomena at any level of spatial and temporal scale and abstraction; second, its rich compositionality—the specific way in which concepts productively combine to yield our thoughts. I consider two (...)
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  36. Towards a Best Predictive System Account of Laws of Nature.Chris Dorst - 2019 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 70 (3):877-900.
    This article argues for a revised best system account of laws of nature. David Lewis’s original BSA has two main elements. On the one hand, there is the Humean base, which is the totality of particular matters of fact that obtain in the history of the universe. On the other hand, there is what I call the ‘nomic formula’, which is a particular operation that gets applied to the Humean base in order to output the laws of nature. My revised (...)
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  37.  63
    Prediction of External Events with Our Motor System: Towards a New Framework.Ricarda I. Schubotz - 2007 - Trends in Cognitive Sciences 11 (5):211-218.
  38.  12
    Systems Biology and Predictive Neuroscience: A Double Helical Approach.Harris Wiseman - 2017 - Zygon 52 (2):516-537.
    This article explores the overlap between systems biology and predictive neuroscience, placing them in their larger context, the contemporary trend of bioinformatic convergence across the sciences. These two domains overlap with respect to their interest in data accumulation and data integration; their reliance on computational statistical correlation; and their translational goals, that is, producing practical fruits and applications from the interscientific cross-pollination that contemporary data-integrative approaches make possible. The interventions that such translational conversations generate are medical and social (...)
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  39.  15
    Predicting the Phenomenology of Episodic Future Thoughts.Arnaud D’Argembeau & Martial Van der Linden - 2012 - Consciousness and Cognition 21 (3):1198-1206.
    Recent findings suggest that multiple event properties contribute to shape the phenomenology of episodic future thoughts, but the specific role of each property is not yet fully understood. This study shows that different phenomenological features are predicted by distinct event properties. The vividness of an episodic future thought largely depends on the familiarity of its constitutive elements , while the visual perspective adopted is instead related to the temporal distance of the imagined event. Cognitive feelings such as the sense (...)
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  40. Shannon + Friston = Content: Intentionality in Predictive Signaling Systems.Carrie Figdor - forthcoming - Synthese:1-24.
    What is the content of a mental state? This question poses the problem of intentionality: to explain how mental states can be about other things, where being about them is understood as representing them. A framework that integrates predictive coding and signaling systems theories of cognitive processing offers a new perspective on intentionality. On this view, at least some mental states are evaluations, which differ in function, operation, and normativity from representations. A complete naturalistic theory of intentionality must (...)
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  41.  97
    Cognitive Systems, Predictive Processing, and the Self.Robert D. Rupert - manuscript
    This essay presents the conditional probability of co-contribution account of the individuation of cognitive systems (CPC) and argues that CPC provides an attractive basis for a theory of the cognitive self. I proceed in a largely indirect way, by emphasizing empirical challenges faced by an approach that relies entirely on predictive processing (PP) mechanisms to ground a theory of the cognitive self. Given the challenges faced by PP-based approaches, we should prefer a theory of the cognitive self of (...)
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  42. Emotions in Indian Thought-Systems.Purushottama Bilimoria & Aleksandra Wenta (eds.) - 2015 - Routledge India.
    A stimulating account of the wide range of approaches towards conceptualising emotions in classical Indian philosophical–religious traditions, such as those of the Upanishads, Vaishnava Tantrism, Bhakti movement, Jainism, Buddhism, Yoga, Shaivism, and aesthetics, this volume analyses the definition and validity of emotions in the construction of identity and self-discovery.
     
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  43. Conscious Representation and Thought Systems.Donelson E. Dulany - 1991 - In R. Wyer & T. Srull (eds.), The Content, Structure, and Operation of Thought Systems. Lawrence Erlbaum.
  44. Some Thoughts About Thought Systems.Philip E. Tetlock - 1991 - In R. Wyer & T. Srull (eds.), The Content, Structure, and Operation of Thought Systems. Lawrence Erlbaum. pp. 4--197.
  45. The Imbeciltiy of the Thought-Systems (Aristotelian Foundation).Samo Tomsic - 2007 - Filozofski Vestnik 28 (3):145 - +.
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  46.  3
    Event‐Predictive Cognition: A Root for Conceptual Human Thought.Martin V. Butz, Asya Achimova, David Bilkey & Alistair Knott - 2021 - Topics in Cognitive Science 13 (1):10-24.
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  47.  4
    Predicting the Behavior of the Educational System.Thomas F. Green - 1980 - Syracuse University Press.
    This groundbreaking work was the first to propose an inquiry into the forms, dynamics, and constructs of educational policy. This fine book remains the only treatment of educational policy incorporating an account of the differences between various kinds of educational goods. Professor Green explored the nature of policy and prospects for the future, and it is a rare treat that we can now (more than fifteen years later) revisit the text to discover his uncanny accuracy.
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  48.  15
    Motor System Contribution to Action Prediction: Temporal Accuracy Depends on Motor Experience.Janny C. Stapel, Sabine Hunnius, Marlene Meyer & Harold Bekkering - 2016 - Cognition 148:71-78.
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  49. The Significance of the Concept of 'Fa' in Han Fei's Thought System.Wang Hsiao-po & L. S. Chang - 1977 - Philosophy East and West 27 (1):35-52.
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  50.  14
    System Effects and the Problem of Prediction.Jeffrey Friedman - 2012 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 24 (3):291-312.
    Robert Jervis's System Effects (1997) shares a great deal with game theory, complex-systems theory, and systems theory in international relations, yet it transcends them all by taking account of the role of ideas in human behavior. The ideational element inserts unpredictability into Jervis's understanding of system effects. Each member of a ?system? of interrelated actors interprets her situation to require certain actions based on the effects these will cause among other members of the system, but these other actors' (...)
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