Results for 'Probabilities'

999 found
Order:
  1.  62
    Probabilistic Opinion Pooling with Imprecise Probabilities.Rush T. Stewart & Ignacio Ojea Quintana - 2018 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 47 (1):17-45.
    The question of how the probabilistic opinions of different individuals should be aggregated to form a group opinion is controversial. But one assumption seems to be pretty much common ground: for a group of Bayesians, the representation of group opinion should itself be a unique probability distribution, 410–414, [45]; Bordley Management Science, 28, 1137–1148, [5]; Genest et al. The Annals of Statistics, 487–501, [21]; Genest and Zidek Statistical Science, 114–135, [23]; Mongin Journal of Economic Theory, 66, 313–351, [46]; Clemen and (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   6 citations  
  2. Rationality and Indeterminate Probabilities.Alan Hájek & Michael Smithson - 2012 - Synthese 187 (1):33-48.
    We argue that indeterminate probabilities are not only rationally permissible for a Bayesian agent, but they may even be rationally required . Our first argument begins by assuming a version of interpretivism: your mental state is the set of probability and utility functions that rationalize your behavioral dispositions as well as possible. This set may consist of multiple probability functions. Then according to interpretivism, this makes it the case that your credal state is indeterminate. Our second argument begins with (...)
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   13 citations  
  3. Imprecise Probabilities and Unstable Betting Behaviour.Anna Mahtani - 2016 - Noûs:69-87.
    Many have argued that a rational agent's attitude towards a proposition may be better represented by a probability range than by a single number. I show that in such cases an agent will have unstable betting behaviour, and so will behave in an unpredictable way. I use this point to argue against a range of responses to the ‘two bets’ argument for sharp probabilities.
    Direct download (10 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  4. CHSH Inequality: Quantum Probabilities as Classical Conditional Probabilities.Andrei Khrennikov - 2015 - Foundations of Physics 45 (7):711-725.
    In this note we demonstrate that the results of observations in the EPR–Bohm–Bell experiment can be described within the classical probabilistic framework. However, the “quantum probabilities” have to be interpreted as conditional probabilities, where conditioning is with respect to fixed experimental settings. Our approach is based on the complete account of randomness involved in the experiment. The crucial point is that randomness of selections of experimental settings has to be taken into account within one consistent framework covering all (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   4 citations  
  5.  25
    A Humean Guide to Spielraum Probabilities.Claus Beisbart - 2016 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 47 (1):189-216.
    The most promising accounts of ontic probability include the Spielraum conception of probabilities, which can be traced back to J. von Kries and H. Poincaré, and the best system account by D. Lewis. This paper aims at comparing both accounts and at combining them to obtain the best of both worlds. The extensions of both Spielraum and best system probabilities do not coincide because the former only apply to systems with a special dynamics. Conversely, Spielraum probabilities may (...)
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  6.  22
    Probabilities and Quantum Reality: Are There Correlata? [REVIEW]Robert B. Griffiths - 2003 - Foundations of Physics 33 (10):1423-1459.
    Any attempt to introduce probabilities into quantum mechanics faces difficulties due to the mathematical structure of Hilbert space, as reflected in Birkhoff and von Neumann's proposal for a quantum logic. The (consistent or decoherent) histories solution is provided by its single framework rule, an approach that includes conventional (Copenhagen) quantum theory as a special case. Mermin's Ithaca interpretation addresses the same problem by defining probabilities which make no reference to a sample space or event algebra (“correlations without correlata”). (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   5 citations  
  7. “Solution” of the EPR Paradox: Negative, or Rather Fuzzy Probabilities[REVIEW]Jarosław Pykacz - 2006 - Foundations of Physics 36 (3):437-442.
    Negative probabilities were several times proposed in the literature as a way to reconcile violation of Bell-type inequalities with the premise of local realism. It is argued that instead of using negative probabilities that have no physical meaning one can use for this purpose fuzzy probabilities that have sound and unambiguous interpretation.
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  8.  35
    The Influence of Probabilities on the Response Mode Bias in Utility Elicitation.Christopher Schwand, Rudolf Vetschera & Lea M. Wakolbinger - 2010 - Theory and Decision 69 (3):395-416.
    The response mode bias, in which subjects exhibit different risk attitudes when assessing certainty equivalents versus indifference probabilities, is a well-known phenomenon in the assessment of utility functions. In this empirical study, we develop and apply a cardinal measure of risk attitudes to analyze not only the existence, but also the strength of this phenomenon. Since probability levels involved in decision problems are already known to have a strong impact on behavior, we use this approach to study the impact (...)
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  9. Quantum Probabilities and the Conjunction Principle.Igor Douven & Jos Uffink - 2012 - Synthese 184 (1):109-114.
    A recent argument by Hawthorne and Lasonen-Aarnio purports to show that we can uphold the principle that competently forming conjunctions is a knowledge-preserving operation only at the cost of a rampant skepticism about the future. A key premise of their argument is that, in light of quantum-mechanical considerations, future contingents never quite have chance 1 of being true. We argue, by drawing attention to the order of magnitude of the relevant quantum probabilities, that the skeptical threat of Hawthorne and (...)
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  10.  5
    Probabilistic Inequalities And Upper Probabilities In Quantum Mechanical Entanglement.J. De Barros & Patrick Suppes - 2010 - Manuscrito 33 (1):55-71.
    In this paper we analyze the existence of joint probabilities for the Bell-type and GHZ entangled states. We then propose the usage of nonmonotonic upper probabilities as a tool to derive consistent joint upper probabilities for the contextual hidden variables. Finally, we show that for the extreme example of no error, the GHZ state allows for the definition of a joint upper probability that is consistent with the strong correlations.
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  11.  24
    Using Imprecise Probabilities to Address the Questions of Inference and Decision in Randomized Clinical Trials.Lyle C. Gurrin, Peter D. Sly & Paul R. Burton - 2002 - Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 8 (2):255-268.
    Randomized controlled clinical trials play an important role in the development of new medical therapies. There is, however, an ethical issue surrounding the use of randomized treatment allocation when the patient is suffering from a life threatening condition and requires immediate treatment. Such patients can only benefit from the treatment they actually receive and not from the alternative therapy, even if it ultimately proves to be superior. We discuss a novel new way to analyse data from such clinical trials based (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  12.  22
    On Relations Between Probabilities Under Quantum and Classical Measurements.Andrei Y. Khrennikov & Elena R. Loubenets - 2004 - Foundations of Physics 34 (4):689-704.
    We show that the so-called quantum probabilistic rule, usually introduced in the physical literature as an argument of the essential distinction between the probability relations under quantum and classical measurements, is not, as it is commonly accepted, in contrast to the rule for the addition of probabilities of mutually exclusive events. The latter is valid under all experimental situations upon classical and quantum systems. We discuss also the quantum measurement situation that is similar to the classical one, described by (...)
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  13.  20
    Extension of Relatively |Sigma-Additive Probabilities on Boolean Algebras of Logic.Mohamed A. Amer - 1985 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 50 (3):589 - 596.
    Contrary to what is stated in Lemma 7.1 of [8], it is shown that some Boolean algebras of finitary logic admit finitely additive probabilities that are not σ-additive. Consequences of Lemma 7.1 are reconsidered. The concept of a C-σ-additive probability on B (where B and C are Boolean algebras, and $\mathscr{B} \subseteq \mathscr{C}$ ) is introduced, and a generalization of Hahn's extension theorem is proved. This and other results are employed to show that every S̄(L)-σ-additive probability on s̄(L) can (...)
    Direct download (7 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  14.  38
    Gender Differences When Subjective Probabilities Affect Risky Decisions: An Analysis From the Television Game Show Cash Cab. [REVIEW]Matthew R. Kelley & Robert J. Lemke - 2015 - Theory and Decision 78 (1):153-170.
    This study uses the television show Cash Cab as a natural experiment to investigate gender differences in decision making under uncertainty. As expected, men are much more likely to accept the end-of-game gamble than are women, but men and women appear to weigh performance variables differently when relying on subjective probabilities. At best men base their risky decisions on general aspects of their previous “good” play (not all of which is relevant at the time the decision is made) and (...)
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  15.  32
    Conditional Probabilities and Density Operators in Quantum Modeling.John M. Myers - 2006 - Foundations of Physics 36 (7):1012-1035.
    Motivated by a recent proof of free choices in linking equations to the experiments they describe, I clarify some relations among purely mathematical entities featured in quantum mechanics (probabilities, density operators, partial traces, and operator-valued measures), thereby allowing applications of these entities to the modeling of a wider variety of physical situations. I relate conditional probabilities associated with projection-valued measures to conditional density operators identical, in some cases but not in others, to the usual reduced density operators. While (...)
    Direct download (7 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  16.  25
    Objectivism Without Objective Probabilities.Ruth Weintraub - 1990 - Theoria 56 (1-2):23-41.
    After defending the pluralistic approach to the interpretation of probability statements, I argue that the correctness of objective probability statements is not to be explained in terms of objective probabilities attached to propositions. Such an explanation will enable us to uphold an intuitively appealing connection between probability and action only in indeterministic contexts, whereas the objectivity of probability statements doesn’t depend on the truth of indeterminism. I show how objective probability statements can be interpreted without ascribing objective probabilities (...)
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  17.  42
    Statistical and Inductive Probabilities.Hugues Leblanc - 1962 - Dover Publications.
    This evenhanded treatment addresses the decades-old dispute among probability theorists, asserting that both statistical and inductive probabilities may be treated as sentence-theoretic measurements, and that the latter qualify as estimates of the former. Beginning with a survey of the essentials of sentence theory and of set theory, the author examines statistical probabilities, showing that statistical probabilities may be passed on to sentences, and thereby qualify as truth-values. An exploration of inductive probabilities follows, demonstrating their reinterpretation as (...)
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  18. Subjective Probabilities Need Not Be Sharp.Jake Chandler - 2014 - Erkenntnis 79 (6):1273-1286.
    It is well known that classical, aka ‘sharp’, Bayesian decision theory, which models belief states as single probability functions, faces a number of serious difficulties with respect to its handling of agnosticism. These difficulties have led to the increasing popularity of so-called ‘imprecise’ models of decision-making, which represent belief states as sets of probability functions. In a recent paper, however, Adam Elga has argued in favour of a putative normative principle of sequential choice that he claims to be borne out (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   11 citations  
  19. Probabilities of Conditionals.Bas van Fraassen - 1976 - In C. Hooker (ed.), Foundations of probability theory, statistical inference, and statistical theories of science.
  20. Taurek, Numbers and Probabilities.Rob Lawlor - 2006 - Ethical Theory and Moral Practice 9 (2):149 - 166.
    In his paper, “Should the Numbers Count?" John Taurek imagines that we are in a position such that we can either save a group of five people, or we can save one individual, David. We cannot save David and the five. This is because they each require a life-saving drug. However, David needs all of the drug if he is to survive, while the other five need only a fifth each.Typically, people have argued as if there was a choice to (...)
    Direct download (7 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   14 citations  
  21. Justification by an Infinity of Conditional Probabilities.David Atkinson & Jeanne Peijnenburg - 2009 - Notre Dame Journal of Formal Logic 50 (2):183-193.
    Today it is generally assumed that epistemic justification comes in degrees. The consequences, however, have not been adequately appreciated. In this paper we show that the assumption invalidates some venerable attacks on infinitism: once we accept that epistemic justification is gradual, an infinitist stance makes perfect sense. It is only without the assumption that infinitism runs into difficulties.
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   11 citations  
  22.  13
    An Investigation of the Laws of Thought on Which Are Founded the Mathematical Theories of Logic and Probabilities.George Boole - 1854 - Dover Constable.
  23. The Principle of Supplementarity: A Contextual Probabilistic Viewpoint to Complementarity, the Interference of Probabilities and Incompatibility of Variables in Quantum Mechanics.Andrei Khrennikov - 2005 - Foundations of Physics 35 (10):1655-1693.
  24. Modus Ponens and Modus Tollens for Conditional Probabilities, and Updating on Uncertain Evidence.Jordan Howard Sobel - 2009 - Theory and Decision 66 (2):103 - 148.
    There are narrowest bounds for P(h) when P(e) = y and P(h/e) = x, which bounds collapse to x as y goes to 1. A theorem for these bounds -- bounds for probable modus ponens -- entails a principle for updating on possibly uncertain evidence subject to these bounds that is a generalization of the principle for updating by conditioning on certain evidence. This way of updating on possibly uncertain evidence is appropriate when updating by ’probability kinematics’ or ’Jeffrey-conditioning’ is, (...)
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  25. Nash Equilibrium with Lower Probabilities.Ebbe Groes, Hans Jørgen Jacobsen, Birgitte Sloth & Torben Tranaes - 1998 - Theory and Decision 44 (1):37-66.
    We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible to distinguish between a player's assessment of ambiguity and his attitude towards ambiguity. We also generalize the concept of trembling hand perfect equilibrium. Finally, we demonstrate that for certain attitudes towards ambiguity it is possible to explain (...)
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  26.  50
    Relative Importance of Probabilities and Payoffs in Risk Taking.Paul Slovic & Sarah Lichtenstein - 1968 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 78 (3p2):1.
  27. The Price for Information About Probabilities and its Relation with Risk and Ambiguity.Giuseppe Attanasi & Aldo Montesano - 2012 - Theory and Decision 73 (1):125-160.
    In this article, ambiguity attitude is measured through the maximum price a decision maker is willing to pay to know the probability of an event. Two problems are examined in which the decision maker faces an act: in one case, buying information implies playing a lottery, while, in the other case, buying information gives also the option to avoid playing the lottery. In both decision settings, relying on the Choquet expected utility model, we study how the decision maker’s risk and (...)
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  28.  51
    The Impossibility of Experimental Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities.Edi Karni & Zvi Safra - 1995 - Theory and Decision 38 (3):313-320.
  29.  21
    Internal Consistency of Subjective Probabilities.Cameron R. Peterson, Z. J. Ulehla, Alan J. Miller, Lyle E. Bourne & Donald W. Stilson - 1965 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 70 (5):526.
  30.  10
    Sample Size and the Revision of Subjective Probabilities.Cameron R. Peterson, Robert J. Schneider & Alan J. Miller - 1965 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 69 (5):522.
  31.  18
    Marginal and Conditional Stimulus and Response Probabilities in Verbal Conditioning.Jean Engler - 1958 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 55 (4):303.
  32.  15
    Anagram Solution Times: A Function of Word Transition Probabilities.M. S. Mayzner & M. E. Tresselt - 1962 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 63 (5):510.
  33.  15
    Probability Magnitudes and Conservative Revision of Subjective Probabilities.Lee R. Beach - 1968 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 77 (1):57.
  34.  13
    Prediction on the Basis of Conditional Probabilities.William C. Howell & Joseph F. Funaro - 1965 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 69 (1):92.
  35.  5
    Estimates of Conditional Probabilities of Confirming Versus Disconfirming Events as a Function of Inference Situation and Prior Evidence.Philip Brickman & Scott M. Pierce - 1972 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 95 (1):235.
    No categories
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  36.  13
    Analysis of Learning Rate and Sampling Probabilities in a Contingent Reinforcement Situation.John G. Borkowski & Gilbert R. Johns - 1966 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 72 (1):158.
  37.  9
    The Effects of Response Contingent Probabilities Which Favor Response Change.Maynard W. Shelly Ii - 1958 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 56 (3):239.
  38.  8
    The Effects of Amount of Reward, Requirement, and Several Related Probabilities on Human Performance.Sheila G. Zipf - 1961 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 62 (5):503.
  39.  8
    Two-Choice Discrimination Learning as a Function of Stimulus and Event Probabilities.Jerome L. Myers & Donna Cruse - 1968 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 77 (3p1):453.
  40.  8
    Number of Event Choices and the Difference Between Event Probabilities in Human Probability Learning.Gloria J. Fischer - 1971 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 89 (1):192.
    No categories
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  41.  6
    Probabilities of Success and Amounts of Work in a Multichoice Situation.Marvin H. Detambel - 1956 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 51 (1):41.
  42. Evidential Probabilities and Credences.Anna-Maria A. Eder - forthcoming - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.
    Enjoying great popularity in decision theory, epistemology, and philosophy of science, Bayesianism as understood here is fundamentally concerned with epistemically ideal rationality. It assumes a tight connection between evidential probability and ideally rational credence, and usually interprets evidential probability in terms of such credence. Timothy Williamson challenges Bayesianism by arguing that evidential probabilities cannot be adequately interpreted as the credences of an ideal agent. From this and his assumption that evidential probabilities cannot be interpreted as the actual credences (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  43. Subjective Probabilities Should Be Sharp.Adam Elga - 2010 - Philosophers' Imprint 10.
    Many have claimed that unspecific evidence sometimes demands unsharp, indeterminate, imprecise, vague, or interval-valued probabilities. Against this, a variant of the diachronic Dutch Book argument shows that perfectly rational agents always have perfectly sharp probabilities.
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   71 citations  
  44.  52
    Believing Probabilistic Contents: On the Expressive Power and Coherence of Sets of Sets of Probabilities.Catrin Campbell-Moore & Jason Konek - forthcoming - Analysis Reviews:anz076.
    Moss (2018) argues that rational agents are best thought of not as having degrees of belief in various propositions but as having beliefs in probabilistic contents, or probabilistic beliefs. Probabilistic contents are sets of probability functions. Probabilistic belief states, in turn, are modeled by sets of probabilistic contents, or sets of sets of probability functions. We argue that this Mossean framework is of considerable interest quite independently of its role in Moss’ account of probabilistic knowledge or her semantics for epistemic (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  45. Evolutionary Theory and the Reality of Macro Probabilities.Elliott Sober - 2010 - In Ellery Eells & James H. Fetzer (eds.), The Place of Probability in Science. Springer. pp. 133--60.
    Evolutionary theory is awash with probabilities. For example, natural selection is said to occur when there is variation in fitness, and fitness is standardly decomposed into two components, viability and fertility, each of which is understood probabilistically. With respect to viability, a fertilized egg is said to have a certain chance of surviving to reproductive age; with respect to fertility, an adult is said to have an expected number of offspring.1 There is more to evolutionary theory than the theory (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   33 citations  
  46.  52
    Infinitesimal Probabilities.Vieri Benci, Leon Horsten & Sylvia Wenmackers - 2018 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 69 (2):509-552.
    Non-Archimedean probability functions allow us to combine regularity with perfect additivity. We discuss the philosophical motivation for a particular choice of axioms for a non-Archimedean probability theory and answer some philosophical objections that have been raised against infinitesimal probabilities in general. _1_ Introduction _2_ The Limits of Classical Probability Theory _2.1_ Classical probability functions _2.2_ Limitations _2.3_ Infinitesimals to the rescue? _3_ NAP Theory _3.1_ First four axioms of NAP _3.2_ Continuity and conditional probability _3.3_ The final axiom of (...)
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   10 citations  
  47.  17
    Proof with and Without Probabilities.Bart Verheij - 2017 - Artificial Intelligence and Law 25 (1):127-154.
    Evidential reasoning is hard, and errors can lead to miscarriages of justice with serious consequences. Analytic methods for the correct handling of evidence come in different styles, typically focusing on one of three tools: arguments, scenarios or probabilities. Recent research used Bayesian networks for connecting arguments, scenarios, and probabilities. Well-known issues with Bayesian networks were encountered: More numbers are needed than are available, and there is a risk of misinterpretation of the graph underlying the Bayesian network, for instance (...)
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   8 citations  
  48. Should Subjective Probabilities Be Sharp?Seamus Bradley & Katie Siobhan Steele - unknown
    There has been much recent interest in imprecise probabilities, models of belief that allow unsharp or fuzzy credence. There have also been some influential criticisms of this position. Here we argue, chiefly against Elga, that subjective probabilities need not be sharp. The key question is whether the imprecise probabilist can make reasonable sequences of decisions. We argue that she can. We outline Elga's argument and clarify the assumptions he makes and the principles of rationality he is implicitly committed (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   13 citations  
  49. Time's Arrow in a Quantum Universe: On the Status of Statistical Mechanical Probabilities.Eddy Keming Chen - forthcoming - In Valia Allori (ed.), Statistical Mechanics and Scientific Explanation: Determinism, Indeterminism and Laws of Nature. World Scientific.
    In a quantum universe with a strong arrow of time, it is standard to postulate that the initial wave function started in a particular macrostate---the special low-entropy macrostate selected by the Past Hypothesis. Moreover, there is an additional postulate about statistical mechanical probabilities according to which the initial wave function is a ''typical'' choice in the macrostate. Together, they support a probabilistic version of the Second Law of Thermodynamics: typical initial wave functions will increase in entropy. Hence, there are (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  50. Probabilities in Statistical Mechanics.Wayne C. Myrvold - 2016 - In Christopher Hitchcock & Alan Hájek (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy. Oxford: Oxford University Press. pp. 573-600.
    This chapter will review selected aspects of the terrain of discussions about probabilities in statistical mechanics (with no pretensions to exhaustiveness, though the major issues will be touched upon), and will argue for a number of claims. None of the claims to be defended is entirely original, but all deserve emphasis. The first, and least controversial, is that probabilistic notions are needed to make sense of statistical mechanics. The reason for this is the same reason that convinced Maxwell, Gibbs, (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   6 citations  
1 — 50 / 999