20 found
Order:
  1.  70
    Perception of Randomness and Predicting Uncertain Events.Przemysław Sawicki, Raymond Dacey, Piotr Zielonka & Tadeusz Tyszka - 2008 - Thinking and Reasoning 14 (1):83-110.
    Using randomly generated sequences of binary events we asked participants to make predictions about the next event. It turned out that while predicting uncertain events, people do not behave unsystematically. Our research identifies four types of relatively consistent strategies for predicting uncertain binary events: a strategy immune to short-run sequential dependencies consisting of the persistent prediction of long-run majority events, hereafter called the long-run momentum strategy ; a strategy immune to short-run sequential dependencies consisting of the persistent prediction of long-run (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   4 citations  
  2. A Theory of Conclusions.Raymond Dacey - 1978 - Philosophy of Science 45 (4):563-574.
    This paper presents a theory of conclusions based upon the suggestions of Tukey [21]. The logic offered here is based upon two rules of detachment that occur naturally in probabilistic inference, a traditional rule of acceptance, and a rule of rejection. The rules of detachment provide flexibility: the theory of conclusions can account for both statistical and deductive arguments. The rule of acceptance governs the acceptance of new conclusions, is a variant of the rule of high probability, and is a (...)
    Direct download (7 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  3.  74
    Social Norms and the Traditional Deterrence Game.Lisa Carlson & Raymond Dacey - 2010 - Synthese 176 (1):105-123.
    Bicchieri (The grammar of society: The nature and dynamics of norms, 2006, xi) presents a formal analysis of norms that answers the questions of "when, how, and to what degree" norms affect human behavior in the play of games. The purpose of this paper is to apply a variation of the Bicchieri norms analysis to generate a model of norms-based play of the traditional deterrence game (Zagare and Kilgour, Int Stud Q 37: 1-27, 1993; Morrow, Game theory for political scientists, (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  4. Perception of Randomness and Predicting Uncertain Events.Tadeusz Tyszka, Piotr Zielonka, Raymond Dacey & Przemys - 2008 - Thinking and Reasoning 14 (1):83 – 110.
    Using randomly generated sequences of binary events we asked participants to make predictions about the next event. It turned out that while predicting uncertain events, people do not behave unsystematically. Our research identifies four types of relatively consistent strategies for predicting uncertain binary events: a strategy immune to short-run sequential dependencies consisting of the persistent prediction of long-run majority events, hereafter called the long-run momentum strategy ; a strategy immune to short-run sequential dependencies consisting of the persistent prediction of long-run (...)
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  5.  25
    The Role of Ambiguity in Manipulating Voter Behavior.Raymond Dacey - 1979 - Theory and Decision 10 (1-4):265-279.
    No categories
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  6.  17
    Taking Chances: Essays on Rational Choice.Raymond Dacey - 1996 - Philosophical Books 37 (3):214-216.
  7.  25
    A Cognitivist Solution to Newcomb's Problem.Raymond Dacey, Richard E. Simmons, David J. Curry & John W. Kennelly - 1977 - American Philosophical Quarterly 14 (1):79 - 84.
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  8.  40
    Nineteenth Century Britain as a Subtle Commercial Hegemon.Raymond Dacey & Kevin P. Murrin - 1997 - Synthese 113 (2):205-216.
    No categories
    Direct download (7 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  9.  42
    The Probability of War in Then-Crises Problem: Modeling New Alternatives to Wright's Solution.Claudio Cioffi-Revilla & Raymond Dacey - 1988 - Synthese 76 (2):285-305.
    In hisStudy of War, Q. Wright considered a model for the probability of warP during a period ofn crises, and proposed the equationP=1– n, wherep is the probability of war escalating at each individual crisis. This probability measure was formally derived recently by Cioffi -Revilla, using the general theory of political reliability and an interpretation of the n-crises problem as a branching process. Two new, alternate solutions are presented here, one using D. Bernoulli''s St. Petersburg Paradox as an analogue, the (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  10.  46
    Inducing Fair Trade Out of Hegemonic Trade.Raymond Dacey - 1994 - Synthese 100 (3):497 - 504.
    This paper provides a model of the transition from hegemonic trade to contemporary (or fair) trade. Hegemonic trade is an instance of the two player game called Bully (Poundstone 1992) and Called Bluff (Snyder and Diesing 1977); contemporary trade is an instance of Prisoner's Dilemma (Krugman and Obstfeld 1991). In this paper, I show that a nation under the thumb of a hegemon, called the conciliatory nation, can induce fair trade. Further, I show that to induce fair trade, the conciliatory (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  11.  36
    An Interrogative Account of the Dialectical Inquiring System Based Upon the Economic Theory of Information.Raymond Dacey - 1981 - Synthese 47 (1):43 - 55.
    No categories
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  12.  16
    Interrogative Logic and the Economic Theory of Information.Raymond Dacey - 2004 - In D. Kolak & J. Symons (eds.), Quantifiers, Questions and Quantum Physics. Springer. pp. 61--74.
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  13.  37
    Guest Editor's Preface.Raymond Dacey - 1988 - Synthese 76 (2):183-184.
    No categories
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  14.  28
    Introduction.Raymond Dacey - 1994 - Synthese 100 (3):329-332.
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  15.  11
    Detection, Inference and the Arms Race.Raymond Dacey - 1981 - Bowling Green Studies in Applied Philosophy 3:87-100.
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  16.  19
    The Role of Economic Theory in Supporting Counterfactual Arguments.Raymond Dacey - 1975 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 35 (3):402-410.
    No categories
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  17.  4
    Epistemic Honesty.Raymond Dacey - 1994 - In Dag Prawitz & Dag Westerståhl (eds.), Logic and Philosophy of Science in Uppsala. Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 333--343.
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  18.  1
    Inferential Traps in an Escalation Process.Raymond Dacey - 2003 - In A. Rojszczak, J. Cachro & G. Kurczewski (eds.), Philosophical Dimensions of Logic and Science. Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 373--390.
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  19. Formal Analysis in International-Relations.Raymond Dacey - 1994 - Synthese 100 (3):329-332.
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  20. Formal Analysis in International Relations: A Special Issue.Raymond Dacey - 1988 - Synthese 76.
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark