Results for 'Science Forecasting'

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  1.  40
    D-Separation, Forecasting, and Economic Science: A Conjecture. [REVIEW]David A. Bessler & Zijun Wang - 2012 - Theory and Decision 73 (2):295-314.
    The paper considers the conjecture that forecasts from preferred economic models or theories d-separate forecasts from less preferred models or theories from the Actual realization of the variable for which a scientific explanation is sought. D-separation provides a succinct notion to represent forecast dominance of one set of forecasts over another; it provides, as well, a criterion for model preference as a fundamental device for progress in economic science. We demonstrate these ideas with examples from three areas of economic (...)
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  2. Harnessing the Genie: Science and Technology Forecasting for the Air Force, 1944-1986Michael H. Gorn.Walter A. McDougall - 1989 - Isis 80 (4):730-731.
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  3. Visions: How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century.Michio Kaku - 1997 - Anchor Books.
    In a spellbinding narrative that skillfully weaves together cutting-edge research among today's foremost scientists, theoretical physicist Michio Kaku--author of the bestselling book Hyperspace --presents a bold, exhilarating adventure into the science of tomorrow. In Visions, Dr. Kaku examines in vivid detail how the three scientific revolutions that profoundly reshaped the twentieth century--the quantum, biogenetic, and computer revolutions--will transform the way we live in the twenty-first century. The fundamental elements of matter and life--the particles of the atom and the nucleus (...)
     
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  4.  22
    From Cosmos to Chaos: The Science of Unpredictability.Peter Coles - 2006 - Oxford University Press.
    Cosmology has undergone a revolution in recent years. The exciting interplay between astronomy and fundamental physics has led to dramatic revelations, including the existence of the dark matter and the dark energy that appear to dominate our cosmos. But these discoveries only reveal themselves through small effects in noisy experimental data. Dealing with such observations requires the careful application of probability and statistics. But it is not only in the arcane world of fundamental physics that probability theory plays such an (...)
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  5. The Proceedings of the Plenary Session on Predictability in Science: Accuracy and Limitations: 3-6 November 2006.Werner Arber, N. Cabibbo & Marcelo Sánchez Sorondo (eds.) - 2008 - Pontifical Academy of Sciences.
     
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  6. Is Science Nearing its Limits?George Steiner & Emílio Rui Vilar (eds.) - 2008 - Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian.
  7. Scientific Forecasting and Human Needs: Trends, Methods, and Message: Proceedings of a Symposium Held in Tbilisi, Ussr, 6-11 December 1981. [REVIEW]Augusto Forti (ed.) - 1984 - Pergamon Press.
     
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  8. Predictability in Science and Society: A Joint Symposium of the Royal Society and the British Academy Held on 20 and 21 March 1986. [REVIEW]B. J. Mason, Peter Mathias & J. H. Westcott (eds.) - 1986 - Scholium International.
     
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  9. Methodology of Forecasting Complex Development Processes of the Scientific and Technological Revolution.Ota Sulc - 1977 - Centre for the Study of Science, Technology, and Develop[Ment], Council of Scientific and Industrial Research.
     
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  10.  66
    Agnostic Science. Towards a Philosophy of Data Analysis.D. C. Struppa - 2011 - Foundations of Science 16 (1):1-20.
    In this paper we will offer a few examples to illustrate the orientation of contemporary research in data analysis and we will investigate the corresponding role of mathematics. We argue that the modus operandi of data analysis is implicitly based on the belief that if we have collected enough and sufficiently diverse data, we will be able to answer most relevant questions concerning the phenomenon itself. This is a methodological paradigm strongly related, but not limited to, biology, and we label (...)
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  11. Fact, Fiction, and Forecast.Nelson Goodman - 1955 - Harvard University Press.
    In his new foreword to this edition, Hilary Putnam forcefully rejects these nativist claims.
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  12.  79
    The Paradox of Predictivism.Eric Christian Barnes - 2008 - Cambridge University Press.
    An enduring question in the philosophy of science is the question of whether a scientific theory deserves more credit for its successful predictions than it does for accommodating data that was already known when the theory was developed. In The Paradox of Predictivism, Eric Barnes argues that the successful prediction of evidence testifies to the general credibility of the predictor in a way that evidence does not when the evidence is used in the process of endorsing the theory. He (...)
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  13.  28
    If War Comes Tomorrow?: The Contours of Future Armed Conflict.M. A. Gareev - 1998 - Frank Cass.
    Military affairs have been affected by major changes in the 19902. The bipolar world of two superpowers has gone. The Cold War and the global military confrontation that accompanied it have ended. A new military and political order has emerged, but the world has not become more stable, indeed, wars and armed conflict have become much more common. Forecasting the contours of future armed conflict is the primary object of this work. Focusing on the impact of new technologies, General (...)
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  14.  8
    Formal Descriptions of Developing Systems.J. B. Nation (ed.) - 2003 - Kluwer Academic Publishers.
    A cutting-edge survey of formal methods directed specifically at dealing with the deep mathematical problems engendered by the study of developing systems, in particular dealing with developing phase spaces, changing components, structures and functionalities, and the problem of emergence. Several papers deal with the modelling of particular experimental situations in population biology, economics and plant and muscle developments in addition to purely theoretical approaches. Novel approaches include differential inclusions and viability theory, growth tensors, archetypal dynamics, ensembles with variable structures, and (...)
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  15. 2100 Ke Ji da Wei Lai: Cong Xian Zai Dao 2100 Nian, Ke Ji Jiang Ru He Gai Bian Wo Men de Sheng Huo.Michio Kaku - 2012 - Shi Bao Wen Hua Chu Ban Qi Ye Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si.
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  16.  6
    Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet, and Threatens Our Lives.Michael Specter - 2009 - Penguin Press.
    Vioxx and the fear of science -- Vaccines and the great denial -- The organic fetish -- The era of echinacea -- Race and the language of life -- Surfing the exponential.
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  17.  14
    Forecasting, Prediction and Precision: A Commentary.Jamie Morgan - 2012 - Economic Thought 1 (2).
    Forecasting involves an underlying conceptualization of probability. It is this that gives sense to the notion of precision in number that makes us think of economic forecasting as more than simply complicated guesswork. We think of it as well-founded statement, a science and not an art of numbers. However, this understanding is at odds with the nature of social reality and the attributes of the forecaster. We should think differently about how we both anticipate and make the (...)
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  18.  18
    Retracted Article: Improving Case-Based Ethics Training: How Modeling Behaviors and Forecasting Influence Effectiveness.Lauren N. Harkrider, Alexandra E. MacDougall, Zhanna Bagdasarov, James F. Johnson, Michael D. Mumford, Shane Connelly & Lynn D. Devenport - 2014 - Science and Engineering Ethics 20 (1):299-299.
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  19. Co-Creating a Public Philosophy for Future Generations.Tʻae-chʻang Kim & James Allen Dator (eds.) - 1999 - Praeger.
  20. Guan Zhan Bi Ji: Yi Ge Zhongguo Jiang Jun Yan Zhong de Wei Lai Zhan Zheng.Zengquan Zhu - 2005 - Chang Jiang Wen Yi Chu Ban She.
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  21.  49
    Climate Science, Character, and the "Hard-Won" Consensus.Brent Ranalli - 2012 - Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal 22 (2):183-210.
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  22.  16
    Social Networks and Private Spaces in Economic Forecasting.Robert Evans - 2007 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 38 (4):686-697.
    The outputs of economic forecasting—predictions for national economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment rates and inflation—are all highly visible. The production of these forecasts is a much more private affair, however, typically being thought of as the work of individual forecasters or forecast teams using their economic model to produce a forecast that is then made public. This conception over-emphasises the individual and the technical whilst silencing the broader social context through which economic forecasters develop the expertise that is (...)
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  23. Social Networks And Private Spaces In Economic Forecasting.Robert Evans - 2007 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science 38 (4):686-697.
    The outputs of economic forecasting—predictions for national economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment rates and inflation—are all highly visible. The production of these forecasts is a much more private affair, however, typically being thought of as the work of individual forecasters or forecast teams using their economic model to produce a forecast that is then made public. This conception over-emphasises the individual and the technical whilst silencing the broader social context through which economic forecasters develop the expertise that is (...)
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  24. The Economic Philosophy of History & the Science of Maximal Prediction.Carlo Maria Flumiani - 1978 - American Classical College Press.
     
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  25. Simply Complexity: A Clear Guide to Complexity Theory.Neil F. Johnson - 2009 - Oneworld.
    What exactly is complexity science? Two's company, three is complexity ; Disorder rules, OK? ; Chaos and all that jazz ; Mob mentality ; Getting connected -- What can complexity science do for me? Forecasting financial markets ; Tackling traffic networks and climbing the corporate ladder ; Looking for Mr./Mrs. Right ; Coping with conflict : next-generation wars and global terrorism -- Catching a cold, avoiding super-flu and curing cancer ; The mother of all complexities : our (...)
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  26.  16
    Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection is a Poison Pill.Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Reason L. Machete & Leonard A. Smith - unknown
    This volume is a serious attempt to open up the subject of European philosophy of science to real thought, and provide the structural basis for the interdisciplinary development of its specialist fields, but also to provoke reflection on the idea of ‘European philosophy of science’. This efforts should foster a contemporaneous reflection on what might be meant by philosophy of science in Europe and European philosophy of science, and how in fact awareness of it could assist (...)
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  27.  14
    Opportunity, Opportunism, and Progress:Kairos in the Rhetoric of Technology. [REVIEW]Carolyn R. Miller - 1994 - Argumentation 8 (1):81-96.
    As the principle of timing or opportunity,kairos serves both as a powerful theme within technological discourse and as an analytical concept that explains some of the suasory force by which such discourse maintains itself and its position in our culture. This essay makes a case for a rhetoric of technology that is distinct from the rhetoric of science and illustrates the value of the classical vocabulary for understanding contemporary rhetoric. This case is made by examining images and models of (...)
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  28.  5
    Genetic Counseling in Historical Perspective: Understanding Our Hereditary Past and Forecasting Our Genomic Future.Devon Stillwell - 2013 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 44 (4):618-622.
  29.  3
    The Epistemologies of Non-Forecasting Simulations, Part I: Industrial Dynamics and Management Pedagogy at MIT.William Thomas & Lambert Williams - 2009 - Science in Context 22 (2):245.
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  30.  3
    The Epistemologies of Non-Forecasting Simulations, Part II: Climate, Chaos, Computing Style, and the Contextual Plasticity of Error.Lambert Williams & William Thomas - 2009 - Science in Context 22 (2):271.
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  31.  1
    Consistent Forecasting Vs. Anchoring of Market Stories: Two Cultures of Modeling and Model Use in a Bank.Leon Wansleben - 2014 - Science in Context 27 (4):605-630.
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  32. Knowing Their Place: The Blue Hill Observatory and the Value of Local Knowledge in an Era of Synoptic Weather Forecasting, 1884–1894.James Bergman - 2016 - Science in Context 29 (3):305-346.
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  33. Computational Finance and Business Intelligence-Comparisons of the Different Frequencies of Input Data for Neural Networks in Foreign Exchange Rates Forecasting.Wei Huang, Lean Yu, Shouyang Wang, Yukun Bao & Lin Wang - 2006 - In O. Stock & M. Schaerf (eds.), Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Springer Verlag. pp. 517-524.
     
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  34. Today and Tomorrow Volume 9 Science and Medicine: Eos or the Wider Aspects of Cosmogony Hermes, or the Future of Chemistry Sybilla, or the Revival of Prophecy Archimedes or the Future of Physics.Jones Jeans - 2008 - Routledge.
    Eos or the Wider Aspects of Cosmogony J H Jeans Originally published in 1928 "A fascinating summary of his tremendous conclusions…" Times Literary Supplement "No book in the series surpasses Eos in brilliance and profundity…" Is this universe permanent or transitory? If transitory, is it near its end or just beginning? Is life common or rare? Where does life stand in relation t the stupendous mass of inert matter? These and other issues are lucidly dealt with in this book. 80pp, (...)
     
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  35. Scanning the Skies: A History of Tornado Forecasting[REVIEW]William Meyer - 2003 - Isis: A Journal of the History of Science 94:779-780.
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  36. The Ancients''Meteorology': Forecasting and Cosmic Natural History.Alexander Mourelatos - 2005 - Rhizai. A Journal for Ancient Philosophy and Science 2:279-291.
    A Critical Notice of Liba Taub, Ancient Meteorology, Routledge, London and New York, 2003.
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  37. Consciousness in Contemporary Science.Anthony J. Marcel & E. Bisiach (eds.) - 1988 - Oxford University Press.
    The significance of consciousness in modern science is discussed by leading authorities from a variety of disciplines. Presenting a wide-ranging survey of current thinking on this important topic, the contributors address such issues as the status of different aspects of consciousness; the criteria for using the concept of consciousness and identifying instances of it; the basis of consciousness in functional brain organization; the relationship between different levels of theoretical discourse; and the functions of consciousness.
     
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  38.  46
    Science and Values: The Aims of Science and Their Role in Scientific Debate.Larry Laudan - 1984 - University of California Press.
    Laudan constructs a fresh approach to a longtime problem for the philosopher of science: how to explain the simultaneous and widespread presence of both agreement and disagreement in science. Laudan critiques the logical empiricists and the post-positivists as he stresses the need for centrality and values and the interdependence of values, methods, and facts as prerequisites to solving the problems of consensus and dissent in science.
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  39. Concepts: Where Cognitive Science Went Wrong.Jerry A. Fodor - 1998 - Oxford University Press.
    The renowned philosopher Jerry Fodor, a leading figure in the study of the mind for more than twenty years, presents a strikingly original theory on the basic constituents of thought. He suggests that the heart of cognitive science is its theory of concepts, and that cognitive scientists have gone badly wrong in many areas because their assumptions about concepts have been mistaken. Fodor argues compellingly for an atomistic theory of concepts, deals out witty and pugnacious demolitions of rival theories, (...)
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  40. Representations: Philosophical Essays on the Foundations of Cognitive Science.Jerry A. Fodor - 1981 - MIT Press.
  41.  30
    Reflections on Gender and Science.Evelyn Fox Keller - 1996 - Yale University Press.
    "-Barbara Ehrenreich, Mother Jones "This book represents the expression of a particular feminist perspective made all the more compelling by Keller's evident commitment to and understanding of science.
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  42. The Advancement of Science: Science Without Legend, Objectivity Without Illusions.Philip Kitcher - 1993 - Oxford University Press.
    During the last three decades, reflections on the growth of scientific knowledge have inspired historians, sociologists, and some philosophers to contend that scientific objectivity is a myth. In this book, Kitcher attempts to resurrect the notions of objectivity and progress in science by identifying both the limitations of idealized treatments of growth of knowledge and the overreactions to philosophical idealizations. Recognizing that science is done not by logically omniscient subjects working in isolation, but by people with a variety (...)
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  43.  87
    Science in Action: How to Follow Scientists and Engineers Through Society.Bruno Latour - 1987 - Harvard University Press.
    In this book Bruno Latour brings together these different approaches to provide a lively and challenging analysis of science, demonstrating how social context..
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  44. Scientific Realism: How Science Tracks Truth.Stathis Psillos - 1999 - Routledge.
    Scientific Realism is the optimistic view that modern science is on the right track: that the world really is the way our best scientific theories describe it to be. In his book, Stathis Psillos gives us a detailed and comprehensive study, which restores the intuitive plausibility of scientific realism. We see that throughout the twentieth century, scientific realism has been challenged by philosophical positions from all angles: from reductive empiricism, to instrumentalism and modern skeptical empiricism. Scientific Realism explains that (...)
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  45. The Four-Category Ontology: A Metaphysical Foundation for Natural Science.E. J. Lowe - 2005 - Oxford University Press.
    E. J. Lowe, a prominent figure in contemporary metaphysics, sets out and defends his theory of what there is. His four-category ontology is a metaphysical system which recognizes four fundamental categories of beings: substantial and non-substantial particulars and substantial and non-substantial universals. Lowe argues that this system has an explanatory power which is unrivaled by more parsimonious theories and that this counts decisively in its favor. He shows that it provides a powerful explanatory framework for a unified account of causation, (...)
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  46.  39
    The New Production of Knowledge: The Dynamics of Science and Research in Contemporary Societies.Michael Gibbons (ed.) - 1994 - Sage Publications.
    As we approach the end of the twentieth century, the ways in which knowledge--scientific, social, and cultural--is produced are undergoing fundamental changes. In The New Production of Knowledge, a distinguished group of authors analyze these changes as marking the transition from established institutions, disciplines, practices, and policies to a new mode of knowledge production. Identifying such elements as reflexivity, transdisciplinarity, and heterogeneity within this new mode, the authors consider their impact and interplay with the role of knowledge in social relations. (...)
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  47.  58
    Science, Truth, and Democracy.Philip Kitcher - 2001 - Oxford University Press.
    Striving to boldly redirect the philosophy of science, this book by renowned philosopher Philip Kitcher examines the heated debate surrounding the role of science in shaping our lives. Kitcher explores the sharp divide between those who believe that the pursuit of scientific knowledge is always valuable and necessary--the purists--and those who believe that it invariably serves the interests of people in positions of power. In a daring turn, he rejects both perspectives, working out a more realistic image of (...)
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  48. The Sociology of Science: Theoretical and Empirical Investigations.Robert King Merton - 1973 - University of Chicago Press.
     
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  49.  71
    Colour Vision: A Study in Cognitive Science and Philosophy of Science.Evan Thompson - 1994 - Routledge.
    Colour fascinates all of us, and scientists and philosophers have sought to understand the true nature of colour vision for many years. In recent times, investigations into colour vision have been one of the main success stories of cognitive science, for each discipline within the field - neuroscience, psychology, linguistics, computer science and artificial intelligence, and philosophy - has contributed significantly to our understanding of colour. Evan Thompson's book is a major contribution to this interdisciplinary project. Colour Vision (...)
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  50. Values in Science Beyond Underdetermination and Inductive Risk.Matthew J. Brown - 2013 - Philosophy of Science 80 (5):829-839.
    Proponents of the value ladenness of science rely primarily on arguments from underdetermination or inductive risk, which share the premise that we should only consider values where the evidence runs out or leaves uncertainty; they adopt a criterion of lexical priority of evidence over values. The motivation behind lexical priority is to avoid reaching conclusions on the basis of wishful thinking rather than good evidence. This is a real concern, however, that giving lexical priority to evidential considerations over values (...)
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