25 found
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  1.  29
    How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats.Gerd Gigerenzer & Ulrich Hoffrage - 1995 - Psychological Review 102 (4):684-704.
  2.  15
    Probabilistic Mental Models: A Brunswikian Theory of Confidence.Gerd Gigerenzer, Ulrich Hoffrage & Heinz Kleinbölting - 1991 - Psychological Review 98 (4):506-528.
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  3.  86
    Ethical Blindness.Guido Palazzo, Franciska Krings & Ulrich Hoffrage - 2012 - Journal of Business Ethics 109 (3):323-338.
    Many models of (un)ethical decision making assume that people decide rationally and are in principle able to evaluate their decisions from a moral point of view. However, people might behave unethically without being aware of it. They are ethically blind. Adopting a sensemaking approach, we argue that ethical blindness results from a complex interplay between individual sensemaking activities and context factors.
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  4.  43
    Neither Bad Apple nor Bad Barrel: How the Societal Context Impacts Unethical Behavior in Organizations.Michael Gonin, Guido Palazzo & Ulrich Hoffrage - 2012 - Business Ethics 21 (1):31-46.
    Every time another corporate scandal captures media headlines, the ‘bad apple vs. bad barrel’ discussion starts anew. Yet this debate overlooks the influence of the broader societal context on organizational behavior. In this article, we argue that misbehaviors of organizations (the ‘barrels’) and their members (the ‘apples’) cannot be addressed properly without a clear understanding of their broader context (the ‘larder’). Whereas previously, a strong societal framework dampened the practical application of the Homo economicus concept (business actors as perfectly rational (...)
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  5.  6
    Overcoming Difficulties in Bayesian Reasoning: A Reply to Lewis and Keren and Mellers and McGraw.Gerd Gigerenzer & Ulrich Hoffrage - 1999 - Psychological Review 106 (2):425-430.
  6.  12
    Natural Frequencies Improve Bayesian Reasoning in Simple and Complex Inference Tasks.Ulrich Hoffrage, Stefan Krauss, Laura Martignon & Gerd Gigerenzer - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
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  7.  13
    Neither Bad Apple nor Bad Barrel: How the Societal Context Impacts Unethical Behavior in Organizations.Michael Gonin, Guido Palazzo & Ulrich Hoffrage - 2012 - Business Ethics: A European Review 21 (1):31-46.
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  8.  4
    Toward an Ecological Analysis of Bayesian Inferences: How Task Characteristics Influence Responses.Sebastian Hafenbrädl & Ulrich Hoffrage - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
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  9.  63
    Fast, Frugal, and Fit: Simple Heuristics for Paired Comparison.Laura Martignon & Ulrich Hoffrage - 2002 - Theory and Decision 52 (1):29-71.
    This article provides an overview of recent results on lexicographic, linear, and Bayesian models for paired comparison from a cognitive psychology perspective. Within each class, we distinguish subclasses according to the computational complexity required for parameter setting. We identify the optimal model in each class, where optimality is defined with respect to performance when fitting known data. Although not optimal when fitting data, simple models can be astonishingly accurate when generalizing to new data. A simple heuristic belonging to the class (...)
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  10.  20
    Visual Aids Improve Diagnostic Inferences and Metacognitive Judgment Calibration.Rocio Garcia-Retamero, Edward T. Cokely & Ulrich Hoffrage - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
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  11.  57
    The Role of Representation in Bayesian Reasoning: Correcting Common Misconceptions.Gerd Gigerenzer & Ulrich Hoffrage - 2007 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (3):264-267.
    The terms nested sets, partitive frequencies, inside-outside view, and dual processes add little but confusion to our original analysis (Gigerenzer & Hoffrage 1995; 1999). The idea of nested set was introduced because of an oversight; it simply rephrases two of our equations. Representation in terms of chances, in contrast, is a novel contribution yet consistent with our computational analysis System 1.dual process theory” is: Unless the two processes are defined, this distinction can account post hoc for almost everything. In contrast, (...)
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  12.  5
    Fast and Frugal Heuristics Are Plausible Models of Cognition: Reply to Dougherty, Franco-Watkins, and Thomas.Gerd Gigerenzer, Ulrich Hoffrage & Daniel G. Goldstein - 2008 - Psychological Review 115 (1):230-239.
  13.  3
    The Reiteration Effect in Hindsight Bias.Ralph Hertwig, Gerd Gigerenzer & Ulrich Hoffrage - 1997 - Psychological Review 104 (1):194-202.
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  14.  28
    Why the Analyses of Cognitive Processes Matter.Ulrich Hoffrage - 2000 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (5):679-680.
    Stanovich & West analyze individual differences with respect to response output (e.g., participants' numerical estimates). They do not analyze the underlying cognitive processes that led to the outputs; they thereby probably misclassify some non-normative responses as normative. Using base rate neglect and overconfidence as examples, I demonstrate the advantages of analyzing cognitive processes further.
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  15. Compressed Environments: Unbounded Optimizers Should Sometimes Ignore Information. [REVIEW]Nathan Berg & Ulrich Hoffrage - 2010 - Minds and Machines 20 (2):259-275.
    Given free information and unlimited processing power, should decision algorithms use as much information as possible? A formal model of the decision-making environment is developed to address this question and provide conditions under which informationally frugal algorithms, without any information or processing costs whatsoever, are optimal. One cause of compression that allows optimal algorithms to rationally ignore information is inverse movement of payoffs and probabilities (e.g., high payoffs occur with low probably and low payoffs occur with high probability). If inversely (...)
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  16.  28
    Processes Models, Environmental Analyses, and Cognitive Architectures: Quo Vadis Quantum Probability Theory?Julian N. Marewski & Ulrich Hoffrage - 2013 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 36 (3):297 - 298.
    A lot of research in cognition and decision making suffers from a lack of formalism. The quantum probability program could help to improve this situation, but we wonder whether it would provide even more added value if its presumed focus on outcome models were complemented by process models that are, ideally, informed by ecological analyses and integrated into cognitive architectures.
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  17.  46
    The Ecological Rationality of Simple Group Heuristics: Effects of Group Member Strategies on Decision Accuracy.Torsten Reimer & Ulrich Hoffrage - 2006 - Theory and Decision 60 (4):403-438.
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  18.  4
    Simplifying Bayesian Inference: The General Case.Stefan Krauβ, Laura Martignon & Ulrich Hoffrage - 1999 - In L. Magnani, N. J. Nersessian & P. Thagard (eds.), Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery. Kluwer/Plenum. pp. 165.
  19.  15
    How to Keep Children Safe in Traffic: Find the Daredevils Early.Ulrich Hoffrage, Angelika Weber, Ralph Hertwig & Valerie M. Chase - 2003 - Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 9 (4):249.
  20.  13
    Understanding the Results of Medical Tests: Why the Representation of Statistical Information Matters.Ulrich Hoffrage, Stephanie Kurzenhäuser & Gerd Gigerenzer - 2005 - In Roger Bibace (ed.), Science and Medicine in Dialogue: Thinking Through Particulars and Universals. Praeger. pp. 83--98.
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  21.  2
    Postscript: Fast and Frugal Heuristics.Gerd Gigerenzer, Ulrich Hoffrage & Daniel G. Goldstein - 2008 - Psychological Review 115 (1):238-239.
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  22.  15
    Processes Models, Environmental Analyses, and Cognitive Architectures: Quo Vadis Quantum Probability Theory?—ERRATUM.Julian N. Marewski & Ulrich Hoffrage - 2013 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 36 (4):463-463.
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  23.  33
    How Causal Knowledge Simplifies Decision-Making.Rocio Garcia-Retamero & Ulrich Hoffrage - 2006 - Minds and Machines 16 (3):365-380.
    Making decisions can be hard, but it can also be facilitated. Simple heuristics are fast and frugal but nevertheless fairly accurate decision rules that people can use to compensate for their limitations in computational capacity, time, and knowledge when they make decisions [Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. M., & the ABC Research Group (1999). Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. New York: Oxford University Press.]. These heuristics are effective to the extent that they can exploit the structure of information in the (...)
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  24.  5
    The Impact of Information Representation on Bayesian Reasoning.Ulrich Hoffrage & Gerd Gigerenzer - 1996 - In Garrison W. Cottrell (ed.), Proceedings of the Eighteenth Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Lawrence Erlbaum. pp. 126--130.
  25.  2
    Choice Deferral Can Arise From Absolute Evaluations or Relative Comparisons.Chris M. White, Ulrich Hoffrage & Nils Reisen - 2015 - Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 21 (2):140-157.
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