Results for 'counterfactual reasoning'

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  1. An Improved Probabilistic Account of Counterfactual Reasoning.Christopher G. Lucas & Charles Kemp - 2015 - Psychological Review 122 (4):700-734.
    When people want to identify the causes of an event, assign credit or blame, or learn from their mistakes, they often reflect on how things could have gone differently. In this kind of reasoning, one considers a counterfactual world in which some events are different from their real-world counterparts and considers what else would have changed. Researchers have recently proposed several probabilistic models that aim to capture how people do (or should) reason about counterfactuals. We present a new (...)
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  2.  36
    Basic Conditional Reasoning: How Children Mimic Counterfactual Reasoning.Brian Leahy, Eva Rafetseder & Josef Perner - 2014 - Studia Logica 102 (4):793-810.
    Children approach counterfactual questions about stories with a reasoning strategy that falls short of adults’ Counterfactual Reasoning (CFR). It was dubbed “Basic Conditional Reasoning” (BCR) in Rafetseder et al. (Child Dev 81(1):376–389, 2010). In this paper we provide a characterisation of the differences between BCR and CFR using a distinction between permanent and nonpermanent features of stories and Lewis/Stalnaker counterfactual logic. The critical difference pertains to how consistency between a story and a conditional antecedent (...)
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    Reinforcement Learning and Counterfactual Reasoning Explain Adaptive Behavior in a Changing Environment.Yunfeng Zhang, Jaehyon Paik & Peter Pirolli - 2015 - Topics in Cognitive Science 7 (2):368-381.
    Animals routinely adapt to changes in the environment in order to survive. Though reinforcement learning may play a role in such adaptation, it is not clear that it is the only mechanism involved, as it is not well suited to producing rapid, relatively immediate changes in strategies in response to environmental changes. This research proposes that counterfactual reasoning might be an additional mechanism that facilitates change detection. An experiment is conducted in which a task state changes over time (...)
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    Counterfactual Reasoning and the Problem of Selecting Antecedent Scenarios.Noel Hendrickson - 2012 - Synthese 185 (3):365-386.
    A recent group of social scientists have argued that counterfactual questions play an essential role in their disciplines, and that it is possible to have rigorous methods to investigate them. Unfortunately, there has been little (if any) interaction between these social scientists and the philosophers who have long held that rigorous counterfactual reasoning is possible. In this paper, I hope to encourage some fresh thinking on both sides by creating new connections between them. I describe what I (...)
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    Inference and Explanation in Counterfactual Reasoning.Lance J. Rips & Brian J. Edwards - 2013 - Cognitive Science 37 (6):1107-1135.
    This article reports results from two studies of how people answer counterfactual questions about simple machines. Participants learned about devices that have a specific configuration of components, and they answered questions of the form “If component X had not operated [failed], would component Y have operated?” The data from these studies indicate that participants were sensitive to the way in which the antecedent state is described—whether component X “had not operated” or “had failed.” Answers also depended on whether the (...)
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  6. Knowledge, Belief and Counterfactual Reasoning in Games.Robert Stalnaker - 1996 - Economics and Philosophy 12 (2):133.
    Deliberation about what to do in any context requires reasoning about what will or would happen in various alternative situations, including situations that the agent knows will never in fact be realized. In contexts that involve two or more agents who have to take account of each others' deliberation, the counterfactual reasoning may become quite complex. When I deliberate, I have to consider not only what the causal effects would be of alternative choices that I might make, (...)
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  7.  49
    Is Reasoning From Counterfactual Antecedents Evidence for Counterfactual Reasoning?Josef Perner & Eva Rafetseder - 2010 - Thinking and Reasoning 16 (2):131-155.
    In most developmental studies the only error children could make on counterfactual tasks was to answer with the current state of affairs. It was concluded that children who did not show this error are able to reason counterfactually. However, children might have avoided this error by using basic conditional reasoning (Rafetseder, Cristi-Vargas, & Perner, 2010). Basic conditional reasoning takes background assumptions represented as conditionals about how the world works. If an antecedent of one of these conditionals is (...)
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  8.  29
    The Interplay Between Counterfactual Reasoning and Feedback Dynamics in Producing Inferences About the Self.Keith D. Markman, Ronald A. Elizaga, Jennifer J. Ratcliff & Matthew N. McMullen - 2007 - Thinking and Reasoning 13 (2):188 – 206.
    Counterfactual reasoning research typically demonstrates contrast effects—nearly winning evokes frustration, whereas nearly losing evokes exhilaration. The present work, however, describes conditions under which assimilative responses (i.e., when judgements are pulled towards a comparison standard) also occur. Participants solved analogies and learned that they had either nearly attained a target score or nearly failed to attain it. Participants in the no trajectory condition received this feedback in the absence of any prior feedback, whereas those in the trajectory condition received (...)
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  9.  62
    Counterfactual Reasoning and Knowledge of Possibilities.Dominic Gregory - 2017 - Philosophical Studies 174 (4):821-835.
    Williamson has argued against scepticism concerning our metaphysically modal knowledge, by arguing that standard patterns of suppositional reasoning to counterfactual conclusions provide reliable sources of correct ascriptions of possibility and necessity. The paper argues that, while Williamson’s claims relating to necessity may well be right, he has not provided adequate reasons for thinking that the familiar modes of counterfactual reasoning to which he points generalise to provide a decent route to ascriptions of possibility. The paper also (...)
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  10. Counterfactual Reasoning (Philosophical Aspects)—Quantitative.Alan Hájek - 2002 - In N. J. Smelser & P. B. Baltes (eds.), International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences. Elsevier. pp. 2872-2874.
    Counterfactuals are a species of conditionals. They are propositions or sentences, expressed by or equivalent to subjunctive conditionals of the form 'if it were the case that A, then it would be the case that B', or 'if it had been the case that A, then it would have been the case that B'; A is called the antecedent, and B the consequent. Counterfactual reasoning typically involves the entertaining of hypothetical states of affairs: the antecedent is believed or (...)
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  11.  40
    Counterfactual Reasoning in Surrogate Decision Making – Another Look.Mats Johansson & Linus Broström - 2011 - Bioethics 25 (5):244-249.
    Incompetent patients need to have someone else make decisions on their behalf. According to the Substituted Judgment Standard the surrogate decision maker ought to make the decision that the patient would have made, had he or she been competent. Objections have been raised against this traditional construal of the standard on the grounds that it involves flawed counterfactual reasoning, and amendments have been suggested within the framework of possible worlds semantics. The paper shows that while this approach may (...)
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  12.  40
    Causal Explanation and Fact Mutability in Counterfactual Reasoning.Morteza Dehghani, Rumen Iliev & Stefan Kaufmann - 2012 - Mind and Language 27 (1):55-85.
    Recent work on the interpretation of counterfactual conditionals has paid much attention to the role of causal independencies. One influential idea from the theory of Causal Bayesian Networks is that counterfactual assumptions are made by intervention on variables, leaving all of their causal non-descendants unaffected. But intervention is not applicable across the board. For instance, backtracking counterfactuals, which involve reasoning from effects to causes, cannot proceed by intervention in the strict sense, for otherwise they would be equivalent (...)
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  13.  95
    Psychological Studies of Causal and Counterfactual Reasoning.James Woodward - 2011 - In Christoph Hoerl, Teresa McCormack & Sarah R. Beck (eds.), Understanding Counterfactuals, Understanding Causation. Oxford University Press. pp. 16.
    Counterfactual theories of causation of the sort presented in Mackie, 1974, and Lewis, 1973 are a familiar part of the philosophical landscape. Such theories are typically advanced primarily as accounts of the metaphysics of causation. But they also raise empirical psychological issues concerning the processes and representations that underlie human causal reasoning. For example, do human subjects internally represent causal claims in terms of counterfactual judgments and when they engage in causal reasoning, does this involves (...) about counterfactual claims? This paper explores several such issues from a broadly interventionist perspective. (shrink)
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  14.  8
    Three Theories of Obligationes: Burley, Kilvington and Swyneshed on Counterfactual Reasoning.Paul Vincent Spade - 1982 - History and Philosophy of Logic 3 (1):1-32.
    This paper defends the thesis that the mediaeval genre of logical treatises De obligatiombus contained a theoretical account of counterfacutal reasoning, perhaps the first such account in the history of philosophy. This interpretation helps to explain some of the theoretical disputes in the obligationes literature in the first half of the fourteenth century. Section 1 is introductory. Section 2 presents Walter Burley's theory, while section 3 argues for the counterfactual interpretation of obligationes and section 4 discusses difficulties with (...)
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  15.  1
    Causal Explanation and Fact Mutability in Counterfactual Reasoning.Rumen Iliev Morteza Dehghani - 2012 - Mind and Language 27 (1):55-85.
    Recent work on the interpretation of counterfactual conditionals has paid much attention to the role of causal independencies. One influential idea from the theory of Causal Bayesian Networks is that counterfactual assumptions are made by intervention on variables, leaving all of their causal non‐descendants unaffected. But intervention is not applicable across the board. For instance, backtracking counterfactuals, which involve reasoning from effects to causes, cannot proceed by intervention in the strict sense, for otherwise they would be equivalent (...)
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  16.  38
    Counterfactual Reasoning in the Bell-Epr Paradox.Malcolm R. Forster - 1986 - Philosophy of Science 53 (1):133-144.
    Skyrms's formulation of the argument against stochastic hidden variables in quantum mechanics using conditionals with chance consequences suffers from an ambiguity in its "conservation" assumption. The strong version, which Skyrms needs, packs in a "no-rapport" assumption in addition to the weaker statement of the "experimental facts." On the positive side, I argue that Skyrms's proof has two unnoted virtues (not shared by previous proofs): (1) it shows that certain difficulties that arise for deterministic hidden variable theories that exploit a nonclassical (...)
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  17.  17
    To Be or Not to Have Been?: Defective Counterfactual Reasoning About One’s Own Existence.David Benatar - 2001 - International Journal of Applied Philosophy 15 (2):255-266.
    Most people think that their coming into existence benefited them. This paper reports on and analyses a study that shows that most people, when making such a judgement, do not really consider the counterfactual case -- the scenario in which they never come into existence. Because proper consideration is not given to both options, the ranking of one over the other is not an appropriately informed judgement. The preference for having come into existence is thus a profoundly unreliable indicator (...)
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  18.  8
    When the Alternative Would Have Been Better: Counterfactual Reasoning and the Emergence of Regret.Eva Rafetseder & Josef Perner - 2012 - Cognition and Emotion 26 (5):800-819.
  19.  24
    On Quantum Non-Locality, Special Relativity, and Counterfactual Reasoning.Abner Shimony & Howard Stein - 2003 - In A. Ashtekar (ed.), Revisiting the Foundations of Relativistic Physics. pp. 499--521.
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  20.  5
    Processing Conversational Implicatures: Alternatives and Counterfactual Reasoning.Bob van Tiel & Walter Schaeken - 2017 - Cognitive Science 41:1119-1154.
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  21.  63
    Reasoning with Deontic and Counterfactual Conditionals.Ana Cristina Quelhas & Ruth Byrne - 2003 - Thinking and Reasoning 9 (1):43 – 65.
    We report two new phenomena of deontic reasoning: (1) For conditionals with deontic content such as, "If the nurse cleaned up the blood then she must have worn rubber gloves", reasoners make more modus tollens inferences (from "she did not wear rubber gloves" to "she did not clean up the blood") compared to conditionals with epistemic content. (2) For conditionals in the subjunctive mood with deontic content, such as, "If the nurse had cleaned up the blood then she must (...)
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  22.  4
    Prioritised Ceteris Paribus Logic for Counterfactual Reasoning.Patrick Girard & Marcus A. Triplett - forthcoming - Synthese:1-23.
    The semantics for counterfactuals due to David Lewis has been challenged by appealing to miracles. Miracles may skew a given similarity order in favour of those possible worlds which exhibit them. Lewis responded with a system of priorities that mitigates the significance of miracles when constructing similarity relations. We propose a prioritised ceteris paribus analysis of counterfactuals inspired by Lewis’ system of priorities. By analysing the couterfactuals with a ceteris paribus clause one forces out, in a natural manner, those possible (...)
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  23. Counterfactual Reasoning: Inferences From Hypothetical Conditionals.Ruth Mj Byrne & Alessandra Tasso - 1994 - In Ashwin Ram & Kurt Eiselt (eds.), Proceedings of the Sixteenth Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Erlbaum.
     
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  24.  15
    Sit Verum Obligationes and Counterfactual Reasoning.Sara L. Uckelman - 2015 - Vivarium 53 (1):90-113.
  25.  6
    Processing Conversational Implicatures: Alternatives and Counterfactual Reasoning.Bob Tiel & Walter Schaeken - 2016 - Cognitive Science 40 (7).
    In a series of experiments, Bott and Noveck found that the computation of scalar inferences, a variety of conversational implicature, caused a delay in response times. In order to determine what aspect of the inferential process that underlies scalar inferences caused this delay, we extended their paradigm to three other kinds of inferences: free choice inferences, conditional perfection, and exhaustivity in “it”-clefts. In contrast to scalar inferences, the computation of these three kinds of inferences facilitated response times. Following a suggestion (...)
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  26.  1
    Counterfactual Reasoning.Roberta Ferrario - 2001 - In P. Bouquet V. Akman (ed.), Modeling and Using Context. Springer. pp. 170--183.
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  27. Counterfactual Reasoning in Non-Psychotic First-Degree Relatives of People with Schizophrenia.Auria Albacete, Fernando Contreras, Clara Bosque, Ester Gilabert, Ángela Albiach, José M. Menchón, Benedicto Crespo-Facorro & Rosa Ayesa-Arriola - 2016 - Frontiers in Psychology 7.
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  28. Knowledge, Belief, and Counterfactual Reasoning in Games.Cristina Bicchieri, Richard Jeffrey & Brian Skyrms - 1999 - In Cristina Bicchieri, Richard C. Jeffrey & Brian Skyrms (eds.), The Logic of Strategy. Oxford University Press.
     
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  29. Cognitive Neuroscience of Human Counterfactual Reasoning.Nicole Van Hoeck - 2015 - Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 9.
  30.  12
    Conditional Reasoning and Emotional Experience: A Review of the Development of Counterfactual Thinking. [REVIEW]Sarah R. Beck, Daniel P. Weisberg, Patrick Burns & Kevin J. Riggs - 2014 - Studia Logica 102 (4):673-689.
    What do human beings use conditional reasoning for? A psychological consequence of counterfactual conditional reasoning is emotional experience, in particular, regret and relief. Adults’ thoughts about what might have been influence their evaluations of reality. We discuss recent psychological experiments that chart the relationship between children’s ability to engage in conditional reasoning and their experience of counterfactual emotions. Relative to conditional reasoning, counterfactual emotions are late developing. This suggests that children need not only (...)
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  31.  8
    The Relation Between Counterfactual and Causal Reasoning.A. Spellman Barbara, P. Kincannon Alexandra & J. Stose Stephen - 2005 - In David R. Mandel, Denis J. Hilton & Patrizia Catellani (eds.), The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking. Routledge. pp. 28--43.
  32.  39
    Children's Use of Counterfactual Thinking in Causal Reasoning.Paul L. Harris, Tim German & Patrick Mills - 1996 - Cognition 61 (3):233-259.
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  33.  9
    Judgment Dissociation Theory: An Analysis of Differences in Causal, Counterfactual and Covariational Reasoning.David R. Mandel - 2003 - Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 132 (3):419.
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  34. Apparent Paradoxes in Moral Reasoning; Or How You Forced Him to Do It, Even Though He Wasn’T Forced to Do It.Jonathan Phillips & Liane Young - 2011 - Proceedings of the Thirty-Third Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society:138-143.
    The importance of situational constraint for moral evaluations is widely accepted in philosophy, psychology, and the law. However, recent work suggests that this relationship is actually bidirectional: moral evaluations can also influence our judgments of situational constraint. For example, if an agent is thought to have acted immorally rather than morally, that agent is often judged to have acted with greater freedom and under less situational constraint. Moreover, when considering interpersonal situations, we judge that an agent who forces another to (...)
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  35.  5
    On the Relation Between Counterfactual and Causal Reasoning.Barbara A. Spellman & Dieynaba G. Ndiaye - 2007 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (5-6):466-467.
    We critique the distinction Byrne makes between strong causes and enabling conditions, and its implications, on both theoretical and empirical grounds. First, we believe that the difference is psychological, not logical. Second, we disagree that there is a strict Third, we disagree that it is easier for people to generate causes than counterfactuals.
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  36. Counterfactual and Other Forms of Conditional Reasoning: Children Lost in the Nearest Possible World.J. Perner & E. Rafetseder - 2011 - In Christoph Hoerl, Teresa McCormack & Sarah R. Beck (eds.), Understanding Counterfactuals, Understanding Causation. Oxford University Press.
     
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  37.  42
    Cue Competition Effects and Young Children's Causal and Counterfactual Inferences.Teresa McCormack, Stephen Andrew Butterfill, Christoph Hoerl & Patrick Burns - 2009 - Developmental Psychology 45 (6):1563-1575.
    The authors examined cue competition effects in young children using the blicket detector paradigm, in which objects are placed either singly or in pairs on a novel machine and children must judge which objects have the causal power to make the machine work. Cue competition effects were found in a 5- to 6-year-old group but not in a 4-year-old group. Equivalent levels of forward and backward blocking were found in the former group. Children's counterfactual judgments were subsequently examined by (...)
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  38. Comparative Syllogism and Counterfactual Knowledge.Linton Wang & Wei-Fen Ma - 2014 - Synthese 191 (6):1327-1348.
    Comparative syllogism is a type of scientific reasoning widely used, explicitly or implicitly, for inferences from observations to conclusions about effectiveness, but its philosophical significance has not been fully elaborated or appreciated. In its simplest form, the comparative syllogism derives a conclusion about the effectiveness of a factor (e.g. a treatment or an exposure) on a certain property via an experiment design using a test (experimental) group and a comparison (control) group. Our objective is to show that the comparative (...)
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  39.  35
    Pretense, Counterfactuals, and Bayesian Causal Models: Why What Is Not Real Really Matters.Deena S. Weisberg & Alison Gopnik - 2013 - Cognitive Science 37 (7):1368-1381.
    Young children spend a large portion of their time pretending about non-real situations. Why? We answer this question by using the framework of Bayesian causal models to argue that pretending and counterfactual reasoning engage the same component cognitive abilities: disengaging with current reality, making inferences about an alternative representation of reality, and keeping this representation separate from reality. In turn, according to causal models accounts, counterfactual reasoning is a crucial tool that children need to plan for (...)
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  40.  46
    Counterfactuals and the Law.Simon Beck - 1993 - South African Journal of Philosophy 12 (3).
    This article is concerned with the place counterfactual reasoning occupies in South African law, and how philosophy might be able to help the law. I point out some of the more important and unavoidable uses of counterfactual reasoning in our law. Following this I make some suggestions as to how philosophy, and especially informal logic, can be of help to the law. Finally, I make some suggestions as to how the law in turn can help philosophy.
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  41.  43
    Belief Ascription and the Ramsey Test.Karolina Krzyżanowska - 2013 - Synthese 190 (1):21-36.
    In this paper, I analyse a finding by Riggs and colleagues that there is a close connection between people’s ability to reason with counterfactual conditionals and their capacity to attribute false beliefs to others. The result indicates that both processes may be governed by one cognitive mechanism, though false belief attribution seems to be slightly more cognitively demanding. Given that the common denominator for both processes is suggested to be a form of the Ramsey test, I investigate whether Stalnaker’s (...)
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    Remodeling the Past.Tim De Mey - 2005 - Foundations of Science 10 (1):47-66.
    In some of the papers in which she develops and defends the mental modelview of thought experiments in physics, Nersessian expresses the belief that her account has implications for thought experiments in other domains as well. In this paper, I argue, firstly, that counterfactual reasoning has a legitimate place in historical inquiry, and secondly, that the mental model view can account for such "alternative histories". I proceed as follows. Firstly, I review the main accounts of thought experiments in (...)
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  43.  76
    A Lewisian Logic of Causal Counterfactuals.Jiji Zhang - 2013 - Minds and Machines 23 (1):77-93.
    In the artificial intelligence literature a promising approach to counterfactual reasoning is to interpret counterfactual conditionals based on causal models. Different logics of such causal counterfactuals have been developed with respect to different classes of causal models. In this paper I characterize the class of causal models that are Lewisian in the sense that they validate the principles in Lewis’s well-known logic of counterfactuals. I then develop a system sound and complete with respect to this class. The (...)
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  44. On the Supposed Temporal Asymmetry of Counterfactual Dependence; Or: It Wouldn't Have Taken a Miracle!Gabriele Contessa - 2006 - Dialectica 60 (4):461–473.
    The thesis that a temporal asymmetry of counterfactual dependence characterizes our world plays a central role in Lewis’s philosophy, as. among other things, it underpins one of Lewis most renowned theses—that causation can be analyzed in terms of counterfactual dependence. To maintain that a temporal asymmetry of counterfactual dependence characterizes our world, Lewis committed himself to two other theses. The first is that the closest possible worlds at which the antecedent of a counterfactual conditional is true (...)
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  45.  37
    Are Causal Structure and Intervention Judgments Inextricably Linked? A Developmental Study.Caren A. Frosch, Teresa McCormack, David A. Lagnado & Patrick Burns - 2012 - Cognitive Science 36 (2):261-285.
    The application of the formal framework of causal Bayesian Networks to children’s causal learning provides the motivation to examine the link between judgments about the causal structure of a system, and the ability to make inferences about interventions on components of the system. Three experiments examined whether children are able to make correct inferences about interventions on different causal structures. The first two experiments examined whether children’s causal structure and intervention judgments were consistent with one another. In Experiment 1, children (...)
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  46. Reasoning: Studies of Human Inference and its Foundations.Jonathan E. Adler & Lance J. Rips (eds.) - 2008 - Cambridge University Press.
    This interdisciplinary work is a collection of major essays on reasoning: deductive, inductive, abductive, belief revision, defeasible, cross cultural, conversational, and argumentative. They are each oriented toward contemporary empirical studies. The book focuses on foundational issues, including paradoxes, fallacies, and debates about the nature of rationality, the traditional modes of reasoning, as well as counterfactual and causal reasoning. It also includes chapters on the interface between reasoning and other forms of thought. In general, this last (...)
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  47. Modality and Explanatory Reasoning.Boris Kment - 2014 - Oxford University Press.
    Boris Kment takes a new approach to the study of modality that emphasises the origin of modal notions in everyday thought. He argues that the concepts of necessity and possibility originate in counterfactual reasoning, which allows us to investigate explanatory connections. Contrary to accepted views, explanation is more fundamental than modality.
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  48.  29
    The Psychological Representation of Modality.Jonathan Phillips & Joshua Knobe - forthcoming - Mind & Language.
    A series of recent studies have explored the impact of people’s judgments regarding physical law, morality, and probability. Surprisingly, such studies indicate that these three apparently unrelated types of judgments often have precisely the same impact. We argue that these findings provide evidence for a more general hypothesis about the kind of cognition people use to think about possibilities. Specifically, we suggest that this aspect of people’s cognition is best understood using an idea developed within work in the formal semantics (...)
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  49. Hale on Some Arguments for the Necessity of Necessity.Arif Ahmed - 2000 - Mind 109 (433):81-91.
    The paper argues against Bob Hale's (1999) argument that enquirers must regard some truths as necessary truths. Hale's argument against Quinean skepticism. like many similar arguments due to McFetridge, Wright and others, involves a quantifier shift fallacy.
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  50.  26
    Modelling and Simulating Early Stopping of RCTs: A Case Study of Early Stop Due to Harm.Roger Stanev - 2012 - Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Artificial Intelligence 24 (4):513-526.
    Despite efforts from regulatory agencies (e.g. NIH, FDA), recent systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) show that top medical journals continue to publish trials without requiring authors to report details for readers to evaluate early stopping decisions carefully. This article presents a systematic way of modelling and simulating interim monitoring decisions of RCTs. By taking an approach that is both general and rigorous, the proposed framework models and evaluates early stopping decisions of RCTs based on a clear and consistent (...)
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