Results for 'interpretations of probability'

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  1. Group Level Interpretations of Probability: New Directions.Darrell Patrick Rowbottom - 2013 - Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 94 (2):188-203.
    In this article, I present some new group level interpretations of probability, and champion one in particular: a consensus-based variant where group degrees of belief are construed as agreed upon betting quotients rather than shared personal degrees of belief. One notable feature of the account is that it allows us to treat consensus between experts on some matter as being on the union of their relevant background information. In the course of the discussion, I also introduce a novel (...)
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  2. Ergodic Theory, Interpretations of Probability and the Foundations of Statistical Mechanics.Janneke van Lith - 2001 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 32 (4):581-594.
    The traditional use of ergodic theory in the foundations of equilibrium statistical mechanics is that it provides a link between thermodynamic observables and microcanonical probabilities. First of all, the ergodic theorem demonstrates the equality of microcanonical phase averages and infinite time averages (albeit for a special class of systems, and up to a measure zero set of exceptions). Secondly, one argues that actual measurements of thermodynamic quantities yield time averaged quantities, since measurements take a long time. The combination of these (...)
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  3. Interpretations of Probability in Evolutionary Theory.Roberta L. Millstein - 2002 - Philosophy of Science 70 (5):1317-1328.
    Evolutionary theory (ET) is teeming with probabilities. Probabilities exist at all levels: the level of mutation, the level of microevolution, and the level of macroevolution. This uncontroversial claim raises a number of contentious issues. For example, is the evolutionary process (as opposed to the theory) indeterministic, or is it deterministic? Philosophers of biology have taken different sides on this issue. Millstein (1997) has argued that we are not currently able answer this question, and that even scientific realists ought to remain (...)
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  4. Ergodic Theory, Interpretations of Probability and the Foundations of Statistical Mechanics.Janneke van Lith - 2001 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 32 (4):581--94.
    The traditional use of ergodic theory in the foundations of equilibrium statistical mechanics is that it provides a link between thermodynamic observables and microcanonical probabilities. First of all, the ergodic theorem demonstrates the equality of microcanonical phase averages and infinite time averages (albeit for a special class of systems, and up to a measure zero set of exceptions). Secondly, one argues that actual measurements of thermodynamic quantities yield time averaged quantities, since measurements take a long time. The combination of these (...)
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  5.  1
    Group Level Interpretations of Probability : New Directions.Darrell Patrick Rowbottom - unknown
    In this article, I present some new group level interpretations of probability, and champion one in particular: a consensus-based variant where group degrees of belief are construed as agreed upon betting quotients rather than shared personal degrees of belief. One notable feature of the account is that it allows us to treat consensus between experts on some matter as being on the union of their relevant background information. In the course of the discussion, I also introduce a novel (...)
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  6. Probability and Nonlocality in Many Minds Interpretations of Quantum Mechanics.Meir Hemmo & Itamar Pitowsky - 2003 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 54 (2):225-243.
    We argue that certain types of many minds (and many worlds) interpretations of quantum mechanics, e.g. Lockwood ([1996a]), Deutsch ([1985]) do not provide a coherent interpretation of the quantum mechanical probabilistic algorithm. By contrast, in Albert and Loewer's ([1988]) version of the many minds interpretation, there is a coherent interpretation of the quantum mechanical probabilities. We consider Albert and Loewer's probability interpretation in the context of Bell-type and GHZ-type states and argue that it implies a certain (weak) form (...)
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  7.  94
    Probability in Modal Interpretations of Quantum Mechanics.Dennis Dieks - 2007 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38 (2):292-310.
    Modal interpretations have the ambition to construe quantum mechanics as an objective, man-independent description of physical reality. Their second leading idea is probabilism: quantum mechanics does not completely fix physical reality but yields probabilities. In working out these ideas an important motif is to stay close to the standard formalism of quantum mechanics and to refrain from introducing new structure by hand. In this paper we explain how this programme can be made concrete. In particular, we show that the (...)
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  8.  3
    Probability in Modal Interpretations of Quantum Mechanics.Dennis Dieks - 2007 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38 (2):292-310.
    Modal interpretations have the ambition to construe quantum mechanics as an objective, man-independent description of physical reality. Their second leading idea is probabilism: quantum mechanics does not completely fix physical reality but yields probabilities. In working out these ideas an important motif is to stay close to the standard formalism of quantum mechanics and to refrain from introducing new structure by hand. In this paper we explain how this programme can be made concrete. In particular, we show that the (...)
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  9.  20
    Quantum Chance and Non-Locality: Probability and Non-Locality in the Interpretations of Quantum Mechanics.William Michael Dickson - 1998 - Cambridge University Press.
    This book examines in detail two of the fundamental questions raised by quantum mechanics. First, is the world indeterministic? Second, are there connections between spatially separated objects? In the first part, the author examines several interpretations, focusing on how each proposes to solve the measurement problem and on how each treats probability. In the second part, the relationship between probability (specifically determinism and indeterminism) and non-locality is examined, and it is argued that there is a non-trivial relationship (...)
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  10. On the Proximity of the Logical and ‘Objective Bayesian’ Interpretations of Probability.Darrell Patrick Rowbottom - 2008 - Erkenntnis 69 (3):335-349.
    In his Bayesian Nets and Causality, Jon Williamson presents an ‘Objective Bayesian’ interpretation of probability, which he endeavours to distance from the logical interpretation yet associate with the subjective interpretation. In doing so, he suggests that the logical interpretation suffers from severe epistemological problems that do not affect his alternative. In this paper, I present a challenge to his analysis. First, I closely examine the relationship between the logical and ‘Objective Bayesian’ views, and show how, and why, they are (...)
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  11. Quantum Mechanics and Interpretations of Probability Theory.Neal Grossman - 1972 - Philosophy of Science 39 (4):451-460.
    Several philosophers of science have claimed that the conceptual difficulties of quantum mechanics can be resolved by appealing to a particular interpretation of probability theory. For example, Popper bases his treatment of quantum mechanics on the propensity interpretation of probability, and Margenau bases his treatment of quantum mechanics on the frequency interpretation of probability. The purpose of this paper is (i) to consider and reject such claims, and (ii) to discuss the question of whether the ψ -function (...)
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  12.  13
    Causal Interpretations of Probability.Wolfgang Pietsch - unknown
    The prospects of a causal interpretation of probability are examined. Various accounts both from the history of scientific method and from recent developments in the tradition of the method of arbitrary functions, in particular by Strevens, Rosenthal, and Abrams, are briefly introduced and assessed. I then present a specific account of causal probability with the following features: First, the link between causal probability and a particular account of induction and causation is established, namely eliminative induction and the (...)
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  13. Interpretations of Probability.Alan Hájek - 2008 - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
  14. The Modern Epistemic Interpretations of Probability: Logicism and Subjectivism.Maria Carla Galavotti - 2011 - In Dov M. Gabby & John Woods (eds.), Handbook of the History of Logic: Inductive Logic. North Holland: Amsterdam. pp. 153--203.
     
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  15.  1
    Frequency-Type Interpretations of Probability in Bayesian Inferences. The Case of MCMC Algorithms.Guillaume Rochefort-Maranda - unknown
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  16.  26
    Reductive Relations in Interpretations of Probability.Jan Von Plato - 1981 - Synthese 48 (1):61 - 75.
  17.  28
    Interpretations of Probability in Quantum Mechanics: A Case of “Experimental Metaphysics”.Geoffrey Hellman - 2009 - In Wayne C. Myrvold & Joy Christian (eds.), Quantum Reality, Relativistic Causality, and Closing the Epistemic Circle. Springer. pp. 211--227.
  18.  27
    Comments on Patrick Suppes “Propensity Interpretations of Probability”.Maria Carla Galavotti - 1987 - Erkenntnis 26 (3):359 - 368.
  19.  13
    Reductive Relations in Interpretations of Probability.Jan Plato - 1981 - Synthese 48 (1):61-75.
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  20. On the Putative Incompatibility of the Logical and Subjective Interpretations of Probability.Darrell Patrick Rowbottom - unknown
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  21. Two Interpretations of Objective Probability. On the Ambiguity of Popper's Conception of Propensities.Christina Schneider - 1994 - Philosophia Naturalis 31 (1):107-131.
  22. Two Interpretations of Objective Probability. On the Ambiguity of Popper's Conc..Christina Schneider - 1994 - Philosophia Naturalis 31:107-131.
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  23. Foundations of Probability.Rachael Briggs - forthcoming - Journal of Philosophical Logic:1-16.
    The foundations of probability are viewed through the lens of the subjectivist interpretation. This article surveys conditional probability, arguments for probabilism, probability dynamics, and the evidential and subjective interpretations of probability.
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  24.  6
    What is Logical About the Logical Interpretation of Probability?Torfehnezhad Parzhad - 2016 - Abstracta 9 (1).
    My goal, in this paper, is to critically assess the categorization of “interpretations of probability” as it appears in the literature. In some sources only Carnap’s treatment of probability is understood to be the best example of “logical” probability. This is surprisingly narrow and I will here suggest otherwise. In fact, I believe that certain forms of Baysianism should also be included in the logical camp.
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  25. Self-Locating Uncertainty and the Origin of Probability in Everettian Quantum Mechanics.Charles T. Sebens & Sean M. Carroll - 2016 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science (1):axw004.
    A longstanding issue in attempts to understand the Everett (Many-Worlds) approach to quantum mechanics is the origin of the Born rule: why is the probability given by the square of the amplitude? Following Vaidman, we note that observers are in a position of self-locating uncertainty during the period between the branches of the wave function splitting via decoherence and the observer registering the outcome of the measurement. In this period it is tempting to regard each branch as equiprobable, but (...)
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  26.  12
    The Range Conception of Probability and the Input Problem.John T. Roberts - 2016 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 47 (1):171-188.
    Abrams, Rosenthal, and Strevens have recently presented interpretations of the objective probabilities posited by some scientific theories that build on von Kries’s idea of identifying probabilities with ranges of values in a space of possible states. These interpretations face a problem, forcefully pointed out by Rosenthal, about how to determine ‘input probabilities.’ I argue here that Abrams’s and Strevens’s attempts to solve this problem do not succeed. I also argue that the problem can be solved by recognizing the (...)
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  27.  10
    Real World Interpretations of Quantum Theory.Adrian Kent - 2012 - Foundations of Physics 42 (3):421-435.
    I propose a new class of interpretations, real world interpretations, of the quantum theory of closed systems. These interpretations postulate a preferred factorization of Hilbert space and preferred projective measurements on one factor. They give a mathematical characterisation of the different possible worlds arising in an evolving closed quantum system, in which each possible world corresponds to a (generally mixed) evolving quantum state. In a realistic model, the states corresponding to different worlds should be expected to tend (...)
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  28.  81
    The Nature of Probability.Patrick Suppes - 2010 - Philosophical Studies 147 (1):89 - 102.
    The thesis of this article is that the nature of probability is centered on its formal properties, not on any of its standard interpretations. Section 2 is a survey of Bayesian applications. Section 3 focuses on two examples from physics that seem as completely objective as other physical concepts. Section 4 compares the conflict between subjective Bayesians and objectivists about probability to the earlier strident conflict in physics about the nature of force. Section 5 outlines a pragmatic (...)
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  29.  36
    The Natural-Range Conception of Probability.Jacob Rosenthal - 2009 - In Gerhard Ernst & Andreas Hüttemann (eds.), Time, Chance and Reduction: Philosophical Aspects of Statistical Mechanics. Cambridge University Press. pp. 71--90.
    Objective interpretations of probability are usually discussed in two varieties: frequency and propensity accounts. But there is a third, neglected possibility, namely, probabilities as deriving from ranges in suitably structured initial state spaces. Roughly, the probability of an event is the proportion of initial states that lead to this event in the space of all possible initial states, provided that this proportion is approximately the same in any not too small interval of the initial state space. This (...)
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  30.  11
    A Defense of Propensity Interpretations of Fitness.Robert C. Richardson & Richard M. Burian - 1992 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1992:349 - 362.
    We offer a systematic examination of propensity interpretations of fitness, which emphasizes the role that fitness plays in evolutionary theory and takes seriously the probabilistic character of evolutionary change. We distinguish questions of the probabilistic character of fitness from the particular interpretations of probability which could be incorporated. The roles of selection and drift in evolutionary models support the view that fitness must be understood within a probabilistic framework, and the specific character of organism/environment interactions supports the (...)
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  31.  49
    Some Thoughts on Wesley Salmon’s Contributions to the Philosophy of Probability.Paul Humphreys - 2004 - Philosophy of Science 71 (5):942-949.
    Wesley Salmon provided three classic criteria of adequacy for satisfactory interpretations of probability. A fourth criterion is suggested here. A distinction is drawn between frequency‐driven probability models and theory‐driven probability models and it is argued that single case accounts of chance are superior to frequency accounts at least for the latter. Finally it is suggested that theories of chance should be required only to be contingently true, a position which is a natural extension of Salmon's ontic (...)
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  32.  58
    The Foundations of Probability and Quantum Mechanics.Peter Milne - 1993 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 22 (2):129 - 168.
    Taking as starting point two familiar interpretations of probability, we develop these in a perhaps unfamiliar way to arrive ultimately at an improbable claim concerning the proper axiomatization of probability theory: the domain of definition of a point-valued probability distribution is an orthomodular partially ordered set. Similar claims have been made in the light of quantum mechanics but here the motivation is intrinsically probabilistic. This being so the main task is to investigate what light, if any, (...)
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  33. Philosophies of Probability: Objective Bayesianism and its Challenges.Jon Williamson - manuscript
    This chapter presents an overview of the major interpretations of probability followed by an outline of the objective Bayesian interpretation and a discussion of the key challenges it faces. I discuss the ramifications of interpretations of probability and objective Bayesianism for the philosophy of mathematics in general.
     
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  34.  17
    Philosophies of Probability.Jon Williamson - unknown
    This chapter presents an overview of the major interpretations of probability followed by an outline of the objective Bayesian interpretation and a discussion of the key challenges it faces. I discuss the ramifications of interpretations of probability and objective Bayesianism for the philosophy of mathematics in general.
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  35.  35
    The Propensity Interpretation of Probability: A Re-Evaluation.Joseph Berkovitz - 2015 - Erkenntnis 80 (S3):629-711.
    Single-case and long-run propensity theories are among the main objective interpretations of probability. There have been various objections to these theories, e.g. that it is difficult to explain why propensities should satisfy the probability axioms and, worse, that propensities are at odds with these axioms, that the explication of propensities is circular and accordingly not informative, and that single-case propensities are metaphysical and accordingly non-scientific. We consider various propensity theories of probability and their prospects in light (...)
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  36.  14
    No Interpretation of Probability.Wolfgang Schwarz - forthcoming - Erkenntnis:1-18.
    I argue that none of the usual interpretations of probability provide an adequate interpretation of probabilistic theories in science. Assuming that the aim of such theories is to capture noisy relationships in the world, I suggest that we do not have to give them classical truth-conditional content at all: their probabilities can remain uninterpreted. Indirectly, this account turns out to explain what is right about the frequency interpretation, the best-systems interpretation, and the epistemic interpretation.
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    A Theistic Conception of Probability.Richard Otte - 1987 - Faith and Philosophy 4 (4):427-447.
    Although the doctrines of theism are rich enough to support a distinctively theistic conception of probability, historically there has been little discussion of probability from a theistic perspective. In this article I investigate how a theist might view epistemic probability. A unique conception of probability naturally follows from ideas central to theism, and it is argued that this conception of probability avoids many problems associated with other interpretations of probability.
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  38.  10
    Non-Orthogonal Core Projectors for Modal Interpretations of Quantum Mechanics.R. W. Spekkens & J. E. Sipe - 2001 - Foundations of Physics 31 (10):1403-1430.
    Modal interpretations constitute a particular approach to associating dynamical variables with physical systems in quantum mechanics. Given the “quantum logical” constraints that are typically adopted by such interpretations, only certain sets of variables can be taken to be simultaneously definite-valued, and only certain sets of values can be ascribed to these variables at a given time. Moreover, each allowable set of variables and values can be uniquely specified by a single “core” projector in the Hilbert space associated with (...)
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    On Many-Minds Interpretations of Quantum Theory.Matthew J. Donald - unknown
    This paper is a response to some recent discussions of many-minds interpretations in the philosophical literature. After an introduction to the many-minds idea, the complexity of quantum states for macroscopic objects is stressed. Then it is proposed that a characterization of the physical structure of observers is a proper goal for physical theory. It is argued that an observer cannot be defined merely by the instantaneous structure of a brain, but that the history of the brain's functioning must also (...)
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  40.  21
    The Significance of the Ergodic Decomposition of Stationary Measures for the Interpretation of Probability.Jan Von Plato - 1982 - Synthese 53 (3):419 - 432.
    De Finetti's representation theorem is a special case of the ergodic decomposition of stationary probability measures. The problems of the interpretation of probabilities centred around de Finetti's theorem are extended to this more general situation. The ergodic decomposition theorem has a physical background in the ergodic theory of dynamical systems. Thereby the interpretations of probabilities in the cases of de Finetti's theorem and its generalization and in ergodic theory are systematically connected to each other.
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  41.  37
    The Significance of the Ergodic Decomposition of Stationary Measures for the Interpretation of Probability.Jan Plato - 1982 - Synthese 53 (3):419-432.
    De Finetti's representation theorem is a special case of the ergodic decomposition of stationary probability measures. The problems of the interpretation of probabilities centred around de Finetti's theorem are extended to this more general situation. The ergodic decomposition theorem has a physical background in the ergodic theory of dynamical systems. Thereby the interpretations of probabilities in the cases of de Finetti's theorem and its generalization and in ergodic theory are systematically connected to each other.
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  42.  13
    Johannes von Kries’s Range Conception, the Method of Arbitrary Functions, and Related Modern Approaches to Probability.Jacob Rosenthal - 2016 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 47 (1):151-170.
    A conception of probability that can be traced back to Johannes von Kries is introduced: the “Spielraum” or range conception. Its close connection to the so-called method of arbitrary functions is highlighted. Possible interpretations of it are discussed, and likewise its scope and its relation to certain current interpretations of probability. Taken together, these approaches form a class of interpretations of probability in its own right, but also with its own problems. These, too, are (...)
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  43. The Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy.Alan Hájek & Christopher Hitchcock (eds.) - 2016 - Oxford University Press UK.
    Probability theory is a key tool of the physical, mathematical, and social sciences. It has also been playing an increasingly significant role in philosophy: in epistemology, philosophy of science, ethics, social philosophy, philosophy of religion, and elsewhere. This Handbook encapsulates and furthers the influence of philosophy on probability, and of probability on philosophy. Nearly forty articles summarise the state of play and present new insights in various areas of research at the intersection of these two fields. The (...)
     
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  44. The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too.Alan Hájek - 2007 - Synthese 156 (3):563--585.
    The reference class problem arises when we want to assign a probability to a proposition (or sentence, or event) X, which may be classified in various ways, yet its probability can change depending on how it is classified. The problem is usually regarded as one specifically for the frequentist interpretation of probability and is often considered fatal to it. I argue that versions of the classical, logical, propensity and subjectivist interpretations also fall prey to their own (...)
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  45.  38
    Keynes After Ramsey: In Defence of a Treatise on Probability.Jochen Runde - 1994 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 25 (1):97-121.
    Ramsey's critique of Keynes's ‘logical’ approach to probability is widely regarded as decisive, and his own ‘subjective’ approach and SEU framework are now familiar tools in economics. This paper challenges the standard view of Ramsey's critique and assesses the SEU model from a Keynesian viewpoint on probability. It consists of a summary of the two theories and an evaluation of Ramsey's criticisms and alternative. The two main conclusions are that although Keynes yields to Ramsey on the question of (...)
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  46.  3
    Keynes After Ramsey: In Defence of a Treatise on Probability.Jochen Runde - 1994 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 25 (1):97-121.
    Ramsey's critique of Keynes's ‘logical’ approach to probability is widely regarded as decisive, and his own ‘subjective’ approach and SEU framework are now familiar tools in economics. This paper challenges the standard view of Ramsey's critique and assesses the SEU model from a Keynesian viewpoint on probability. It consists of a summary of the two theories and an evaluation of Ramsey's criticisms and alternative. The two main conclusions are that although Keynes yields to Ramsey on the question of (...)
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  47.  9
    The Infinite Ballot Box of Nature: De Morgan, Boole, and Jevons on Probability and the Logic of Induction.John V. Strong - 1976 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1976:197 - 211.
    The project of constructing a logic of scientific inference on the basis of mathematical probability theory was first undertaken in a systematic way by the mid-nineteenth-century British logicians Augustus De Morgan, George Boole and William Stanley Jevons. This paper sketches the origins and motivation of that effort, the emergence of the inverse probability (IP) model of theory assessment, and the vicissitudes which that model suffered at the hands of its critics. Particular emphasis is given to the influence which (...)
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  48.  88
    Quantum Mechanics and the Concept of Joint Probability.Michael J. W. Hall - 1989 - Foundations of Physics 19 (2):189-207.
    The concepts of joint probability as implied by the Copenhagen and realist interpretations of quantum mechanics are examined in relation to (a) the rules for manipulation of probabilistic quantities, and (b) the role of the Bell inequalities in assessing the completeness of standard quantum theory. Proponents of completeness of the Copenhagen interpretation are required to accept a modification of the classical laws of probability to provide a mechanism for complementarity. A new formulation of the locality postulate is (...)
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  49.  43
    The Foundations of Epistemological Probability.Paul K. Moser - 1988 - Erkenntnis 28 (2):231 - 251.
    Epistemological probability is the kind of probability relative to a body of evidence. Many philosophers, including Henry Kyburg and Roderick Chisholm, hold that all epistemological probabilities reflect a relation between an evidential body of propositions and other propositions. But this article argues that some epistemological probabilities for empirical propositions must be relative to non-propositional evidence, specifically the contents of non-propositional perceptual states. In doing so, the article distinguishes between internalism and externalism regarding epistemological probability, and argues for (...)
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  50.  27
    Maria Carla Galavotti. Philosophical Introduction to Probability. Stanford: Center for the Study of Language and Information Publications, 2005. Pp. X + 265. ISBN 1-57586-490-8 (Pbk), 1-57586-489-4 (Hardback). [REVIEW]D. Gillies - 2007 - Philosophia Mathematica 15 (1):129-132.
    Galavotti begins her book by stressing the centrality of probability to a whole range of philosophical problems. She writes 1: "Probability invests all branches of philosophical investigation, from epistemology to moral and political philosophy, and impinges upon major controversies, like that between determinism and indeterminism, or between free will and moral obligation, and problems such as: ‘What degree of certainty can human knowledge attain?’ ‘What is the relationship between probability and certainty?’" She then explains that her book (...)
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