Results for 'judgment fallacy'

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  1.  59
    Judgement under uncertainty and conjunction fallacy inhibition training.Sylvain Moutier & Olivier Houdé - 2003 - Thinking and Reasoning 9 (3):185 – 201.
    Intuitive predictions and judgements under uncertainty are often mediated by judgemental heuristics that sometimes lead to biases. Our micro-developmental study suggests that a presumption of rationality is justified for adult subjects, in so far as their systematic judgemental biases appear to be due to a specific executive-inhibition failure in working memory, and not necessarily to a lack of understanding of the fundamental principles of probability. This hypothesis was tested using an experimental procedure in which 60 adult subjects were trained to (...)
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  2.  35
    Empirical Fallacies in the Debate on Substituted Judgment.Mats Johansson & Linus Broström - 2012 - Health Care Analysis (1):1-9.
    According to the Substituted Judgment Standard a surrogate decision maker ought to make the decision that the incompetent patient would have made, had he or she been competent. This standard has received a fair amount of criticism, but the objections raised are often wide of the mark. In this article we discuss three objections based on empirical research, and explain why these do not give us reason to abandon the Substituted Judgment Standard.
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  3. Conditional fallacies in probability judgment.J. M. Miyamoto, J. W. Lundell & Sf Tu - 1988 - Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society 26 (6):516-516.
  4.  39
    Noisy probability judgment, the conjunction fallacy, and rationality: Comment on Costello and Watts (2014).Vincenzo Crupi & Katya Tentori - 2016 - Psychological Review 123 (1):97-102.
  5. Representativeness and fallacies of probability judgment.Maya Bar-Hillel - 1984 - Acta Psychologica 55 (2):91-107.
  6.  39
    Towards a pattern-based logic of probability judgements and logical inclusion “fallacies”.Momme von Sydow - 2016 - Thinking and Reasoning 22 (3):297-335.
    ABSTRACTProbability judgements entail a conjunction fallacy if a conjunction is estimated to be more probable than one of its conjuncts. In the context of predication of alternative logical hypothesis, Bayesian logic provides a formalisation of pattern probabilities that renders a class of pattern-based CFs rational. BL predicts a complete system of other logical inclusion fallacies. A first test of this prediction is investigated here, using transparent tasks with clear set inclusions, varying in observed frequencies only. Experiment 1 uses data (...)
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  7.  5
    Naturalness as a Criterion of Moral Judgment - Nature, Naturalness and Naturalistic Fallacy -. 김남준 - 2009 - Environmental Philosophy 8:225-259.
  8. Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman - 1983 - Psychological Review 90 (4):293-315.
  9.  33
    Are people programmed to commit fallacies? Further thoughts about the interpretation of experimental data on probability judgment.L. Jonathan Cohen - 1982 - Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 12 (3):251–274.
  10.  94
    The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges.Jonathan J. Koehler - 1996 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 19 (1):1-17.
    We have been oversold on the base rate fallacy in probabilistic judgment from an empirical, normative, and methodological standpoint. At the empirical level, a thorough examination of the base rate literature (including the famous lawyer–engineer problem) does not support the conventional wisdom that people routinely ignore base rates. Quite the contrary, the literature shows that base rates are almost always used and that their degree of use depends on task structure and representation. Specifically, base rates play a relatively (...)
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  11.  49
    Informal Fallacies as Cognitive Heuristics in Public Health Reasoning.Louise Cummings - 2014 - Informal Logic 34 (1):1-37.
    The public must make assessments of a range of health-related issues. However, these assessments require scientific know-ledge which is often lacking or ineffectively utilized by the public. Lay people must use whatever cognitive resources are at their disposal to come to judgement on these issues. It will be contended that a group of arguments—so-called informal fallacies—are a valuable cognitive resource in this regard. These arguments serve as cognitive heuristics which facilitate reasoning when knowledge is limited or beyond the grasp of (...)
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  12.  13
    Surrogates’ Decisions Regarding CPR, and the Fallacy of Substituted Judgment.G. M. Sayers, N. Beckett, H. Waters & C. Turner - 2004 - Journal of Clinical Ethics 15 (4):334-345.
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  13.  13
    Commentary: Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment.Peter Lewinski - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
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  14.  7
    Subjectivist Fallacy.Frank Scalambrino - 2018-05-09 - In Robert Arp, Steven Barbone & Michael Bruce (eds.), Bad Arguments. Wiley. pp. 396–398.
    This chapter focuses on one of the common fallacies in Western philosophy called the subjectivist fallacy (SbF). The SbF occurs when one concludes that something is true for one person (a subject) but not true for another person (another subject), when, in fact, it is true objectively for all persons. SbF is a fallacy of relativism. Relativism, in general, means the truth‐value of a judgment is neither necessary nor universal; however, there are multiple kinds of relativism. SbF (...)
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  15.  72
    Perspectival representation and fallacies in metaethics.Max Kölbel - 2018 - Canadian Journal of Philosophy 48 (3-4):379-404.
    The prevailing theoretical framework for theorising about representation construes all representation as involving objective representational contents. This classic framework has tended to drive philosophers either to claim that evaluative judgements are representations and therefore objective, or else to claim that evaluative judgements are not really representations, because they are not objective. However, a more general, already well-explored framework is available, which will allow theorists to treat evaluative judgements as full-fledged representations while leaving open whether they are objective. Such a more (...)
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  16.  15
    A fallacious argument against moral absolutes.Philip E. Devine - 1995 - Argumentation 9 (4):611-616.
    The denial of moral absolutes rests, I think, on a seductive but fallacious argument, which I shall attempt both to expound and to refute here. Human beings are highly complex creatures living in a highly complex world. Every human being is different from every other, every interaction or relationship between or among human beings is unique. Hence also every occasion for moral choice is also unique, and all those action kinds - be theyadultery, murder, rape, theft, ortorture on which moralists (...)
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  17.  28
    The inverse conjunction fallacy.Martin Jönsson & James A. Hampton - unknown
    If people believe that some property is true of all members of a class such as sofas, then they should also believe that the same property is true of all members of a conjunctively defined subset of that class such as uncomfortable handmade sofas. A series of experiments demonstrated a failure to observe this constraint, leading to what is termed the inverse conjunction fallacy. Not only did people often express a belief in the more general statement but not in (...)
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  18.  27
    Fallacy and controversy about base rates.Isaac Levi - 1996 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 19 (1):31-32.
    Koehler's target article attempts a balanced view of the relevance of knowledge of base rates to judgments of subjective or credal probability, but he is not sensitive enough to the difference between requiring and permitting the equation of probability judgments with base rates, the interaction between precision of base rate and reference class information, and the possibility of indeterminate probability judgment.
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  19.  52
    Explaining the gambler's fallacy: Testing a gestalt explanation versus the “law of small numbers”.Christopher J. R. Roney & Natalie Sansone - 2015 - Thinking and Reasoning 21 (2):193-205.
    The present study tests a gestalt explanation for the gambler's fallacy which posits that runs in random events will be expected to reverse only when the run is open or ongoing. This is contrasted with the law of small numbers explanation suggesting that people expect random outcomes to balance out generally. Sixty-one university students placed hypothetical guesses and bets on a series of coin tosses. Either heads or tails were dominant . In a closed run condition the run ended (...)
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  20.  60
    Probability Judgements about Indicative Conditionals: An Erotetic Theory.Sam Carter - 2016 - Logic Journal of the IGPL 24 (4).
    Research into the cognition of conditionals has predominantly focused on conditional reasoning, producing a range of theories which explain associated phenomena with considerable success. However, such theories have been less successful in accommodating experimental data concerning how agents assess the probability of indicative conditionals. Since an acceptable account of conditional reasoning should be compatible with evidence regarding how we evaluate conditionals’ likelihoods, this constitutes a failing of such theories. Section 1 introduces the most dominant established approach to conditional reasoning: mental (...)
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  21. Evolving Null hypotheses and the base rate fallacy: A functional interpretation of scientific myth.Brian J. Gibbs - 1997 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):776-777.
    The meaning of an experimental result depends on the experiment's conceptual backdrop, particularly its null hypothesis. This observation provides the basis for a functional interpretation of belief in the base rate fallacy. On this interpretation, if the base rate fallacy is to be labelled a “myth,” then it should be recognized that this label is not necessarily a disparaging one.
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  22.  24
    Putting reasoning and judgement in their proper argumentative place.Mike Oaksford - 2011 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 34 (2):84-85.
    This commentary agrees with Mercier and Sperber's (M&S's) thesis on the argumentative function of reasoning but suggests that an account of argument strength is required. A Bayesian account of argument strength (Hahn & Oaksford 2007) shows how the deployment of deductive fallacies, weak inductive arguments, and judgment fallacies such as base-rate neglect, can all be rationally defended in the right argumentative context.
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  23. Probability, confirmation, and the conjunction fallacy.Vincenzo Crupi, Branden Fitelson & Katya Tentori - 2007 - Thinking and Reasoning 14 (2):182 – 199.
    The conjunction fallacy has been a key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations. Despite extensive inquiry, however, the attempt to provide a satisfactory account of the phenomenon has proved challenging. Here we elaborate the suggestion (first discussed by Sides, Osherson, Bonini, & Viale, 2002) that in standard conjunction problems the fallacious probability judgements observed experimentally are typically guided by sound assessments of _confirmation_ relations, meant in terms of contemporary Bayesian confirmation theory. Our main (...)
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  24.  53
    Source Reliability and the Conjunction Fallacy.Andreas Jarvstad & Ulrike Hahn - 2011 - Cognitive Science 35 (4):682-711.
    Information generally comes from less than fully reliable sources. Rationality, it seems, requires that one take source reliability into account when reasoning on the basis of such information. Recently, Bovens and Hartmann (2003) proposed an account of the conjunction fallacy based on this idea. They show that, when statements in conjunction fallacy scenarios are perceived as coming from such sources, probability theory prescribes that the “fallacy” be committed in certain situations. Here, the empirical validity of their model (...)
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  25.  41
    If the base rate fallacy is a fallacy, does it matter how frequently it is committed?Jonathan E. Adler - 1997 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):774-775.
    In many base rate studies, a judgment is required for which the base rates are relevant, and subjects do not use them. It is inferred that the base rates are ignored; I question this inference. Second, I argue that the base rate fallacy is not less significant for what it reveals about human reasoning, if it occurs less frequently than has been alleged.
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  26. Mistakes of reason: Practical reasoning and the fallacy of accident.Allan Bäck - 2009 - Phronesis 54 (2):101-135.
    For Aristotle the fallacy of accident arises from mistakes about being per accidens and not from accidental predication. Mistakes in perceiving per accidens come from our judgements about being per accidens and so commit that fallacy. Practical syllogisms have the same formal structure as being and perceiving per accidens . Moreover perceiving per accidens typically provides the minor premise for the practical syllogism as it makes it possible for us to know singular propositions, especially those about substances. Thus (...)
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  27.  17
    The Naturalistic Fallacy and the Question of the Existence of God.J. Brenton Stearns - 1972 - Religious Studies 8 (3):207 - 220.
    One of the widely held philosophical doctrines of this century in the English speaking world is that there is no logical bridge between fact and value, between the ‘is’ and the ‘ought’. Human nature may be such that all or most of us approve common states of affairs. That is, there seem to be experiential or psychological ways of bridging the gap. But, on this view, no value judgment is ever inconsistent with any description of the world or of (...)
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  28.  15
    Predicting Outcomes in a Sequence of Binary Events: Belief Updating and Gambler's Fallacy Reasoning.Kariyushi Rao & Reid Hastie - 2023 - Cognitive Science 47 (1):e13211.
    Beliefs like the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot Hand have interested cognitive scientists, economists, and philosophers for centuries. We propose that these judgment patterns arise from the observer's mental models of the sequence-generating mechanism, moderated by the strength of belief in an a priori base rate. In six behavioral experiments, participants observed one of three mechanisms generating sequences of eight binary events: a random mechanical device, an intentional goal-directed actor, and a financial market. We systematically manipulated participants’ beliefs (...)
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  29.  8
    Processing Probability Information in Nonnumerical Settings – Teachers’ Bayesian and Non-bayesian Strategies During Diagnostic Judgment.Timo Leuders & Katharina Loibl - 2020 - Frontiers in Psychology 11.
    A diagnostic judgment of a teacher can be seen as an inference from manifest observable evidence on a student’s behavior to his or her latent traits. This can be described by a Bayesian model of in-ference: The teacher starts from a set of assumptions on the student (hypotheses), with subjective probabilities for each hypothesis (priors). Subsequently, he or she uses observed evidence (stu-dents’ responses to tasks) and knowledge on conditional probabilities of this evidence (likelihoods) to revise these assumptions. Many (...)
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  30.  18
    Or, even, what the law can teach the philosophy of language: a response to Green's Dworkin's Fallacy.Andrew Halpin - unknown
    This essay is a response to the important central theme of Michael Green's recent article, Dworkin's Fallacy, or What the Philosophy of Language Can't Teach Us about the Law, 89 Va. L. Rev. 1897 (2003), which considers the relationship between the philosophy of language and the philosophy of law. Green argues forcefully that a number of theorists with quite different viewpoints commonly maintain a connection between the two which turns out to be unfounded. It is accepted that it is (...)
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  31.  49
    Resiliency, robustness and rationality of probability judgements.James Logue - 1997 - International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 11 (1):21 – 34.
    This paper addresses and rejects claims that one can demonstrate experimentally that most untutored subjects are systematically and incurably irrational in their probability judgements and in some deductive reasoning tasks. From within a strongly subjectivist theory of probability, it develops the notions of resiliency —a measure of stability of judgements—and robustness —a measure of expected stability. It then becomes possible to understand subjects' behaviour in the Wason selection task, in examples which have been claimed to involve a 'base-rate fallacy', (...)
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  32.  2
    The truth will set you free (ceteris paribus): incorporating prescriptive power in the rational judgement of theory.Ryan Armstrong - forthcoming - Journal of Critical Realism:1-18.
    This paper argues that in the search for explanatory power, critical realist research has neglected, trivialized, or dismissed prescriptive power, the capacity for an explanation to offer insights for informing practical ameliorative action. In addition to explanatory power and multitheoretic-linguality, the effective exercise of judgmental rationality also requires a consideration of prescriptive power, else it fails to realize its emancipatory commitment. Building on previous discussions of the criteria for judgmental rationality, the paper considers a prescriptive fallacy in critical realist (...)
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  33. Piatek Zdzislawa.Moralistic Fallacy - unknown - Global Bioethics 15 (3-2002).
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  34.  8
    Category of simplicial objects 461, 469.Binary Fallacy - 1997 - In S. O'Nuillain, Paul McKevitt & E. MacAogain (eds.), Two Sciences of Mind. John Benjamins. pp. 9--262.
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  35. Jonathan E. Adler.Aims-Curricula Fallacy - 1993 - Journal of Philosophy of Education 27 (2):223.
     
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  36.  20
    A Semiotic Framework Kelly A. Parker.Normative Judgment In Jazz - 2012 - In Cornelis De Waal & Krzysztof Piotr Skowroński (eds.), The normative thought of Charles S. Peirce. New York: Fordham University Press.
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  37.  12
    F raming effects typically occur when an alternative or outcome is described using competing perspectives (see Levin, Schneider, & Gaeth, 1998).Human Judgment - 2011 - In Gideon Keren (ed.), Perspectives on Framing. Psychology Press. pp. 93.
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  38.  13
    Retrospective and Prospective Timing: Memory, Attention, and Consciousness.Serial Position & Recency Judgements - 2001 - In Christoph Hoerl & Teresa Mccormack (eds.), Time and Memory: Issues in Philosophy and Psychology. Oxford University Press. pp. 1--59.
  39. Organ donation and transplantation.Human Organs & Substituted Judgement Doctrine - 1984 - Bioethics Reporter 1 (1).
     
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  40. Index to Volume X.Vincent Colapietro, Being as Dialectic, Kenneth Stikkers, Dale Jacquette, Adversus Adversus Regressum Against Infinite Regress Objections, Santosh Makkuni, Moral Luck, Practical Judgment, Leo J. Penta & On Power - 1996 - Journal of Speculative Philosophy 10 (4).
     
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  41. Moral Judgments as Descriptions of Institutional Facts.Rafael Ferber - 1994 - In Georg Meggle & Ulla Wessels (eds.), Analyomen 1, Proceedings of the 1st Conference ”Perspectives in Analytical Philosophy. Berlin: de Gruyter. pp. 719-729.
    Abstract: It deals with the question of what a moral judgment is. On the one hand, a satisfactory theory of moral judgments must take into account the descriptive character of moral judgments and the realistic language of morals. On the other hand, it must also meet the non-descriptive character of moral judgments that consists in the recommending or condemning element and in the fact that normative statements are derived from moral judgments. However, cognitivism and emotivism or “normativism” are contradictory (...)
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  42. Moral Judgments as Descriptions of Institutional Facts.Rafael Ferber - 1994 - In Analyōmen 1 =. De Gruyter. pp. 719-729.
    It deals with the question of what a moral judgment is. On the one hand, a satisfactory theory of moral judgments must take into account the descriptive character of moral judgments and the realistic language of morals. On the other hand, it must also meet the non-descriptive character of moral judgments that consists in the recommending or condemning element and in the fact that normative statements are derived from moral judgments. However, cognitivism and emotivism or “normativism” are contradictory theories: (...)
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  43.  33
    Issues for the next generation of base rate research.Jonathan J. Koehler - 1996 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 19 (1):41-53.
    Commentators agree that simple conclusions about a general base rate fallacy are not appropriate. It is more constructive to identify conditions under which base rates are differentially weighted. Commentators also agree that improving the ecological validity of the research is desirable, although this is less important to those interested exclusively in psychological processes. The philosophers and ecologists among the commentators offer a kinder perspective on base rate reasoning than the psychologists. My own perspective is that the interesting questions (both (...)
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  44. Inquiry: A New Paradigm for Critical Thinking.Mark Battersby (ed.) - 2018 - Windsor, Canada: Windsor Studies in Argumentation.
    This volume reflects the development and theoretical foundation of a new paradigm for critical thinking based on inquiry. The field of critical thinking, as manifested in the Informal Logic movement, developed primarily as a response to the inadequacies of formalism to represent actual argumentative practice and to provide useful argumentative skills to students. Because of this, the primary focus of the field has been on informal arguments rather than formal reasoning. Yet the formalist history of the field is still evident (...)
     
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  45.  37
    Subtracting “ought” from “is”: Descriptivism versus normativism in the study of human thinking.Shira Elqayam & Jonathan St B. T. Evans - 2011 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 34 (5):233-248.
    We propose a critique ofnormativism, defined as the idea that human thinking reflects a normative system against which it should be measured and judged. We analyze the methodological problems associated with normativism, proposing that it invites the controversial “is-ought” inference, much contested in the philosophical literature. This problem is triggered when there are competing normative accounts (the arbitration problem), as empirical evidence can help arbitrate between descriptive theories, but not between normative systems. Drawing on linguistics as a model, we propose (...)
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  46.  12
    Towards moral teleology — a comparative study of Kant and Zhu Xi.Ouyang Xiao & Xiao Ouyang - 2019 - Rivista di Estetica 72:99-124.
    Kant’s coining of «reflective judgment» in the third Critique by a conceptual clarification of the third higher cognitive faculty has long been criticized as redundant for his philosophical system and deemed a typical Kantian architectonic failure. Zhu Xi’s vital development of the doctrine «gewu» in his commentary on The Great Learning has been attacked for centuries for committing a hermeneutic fallacy. I argue that a comparative study shows that both conceptions steered a metaphysical transition towards «the supersensible» in (...)
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  47.  75
    Breve storia dell'etica.Sergio Cremaschi - 2012 - Roma RM, Italia: Carocci.
    The book reconstructs the history of Western ethics. The approach chosen focuses the endless dialectic of moral codes, or different kinds of ethos, moral doctrines that are preached in order to bring about a reform of existing ethos, and ethical theories that have taken shape in the context of controversies about the ethos and moral doctrines as means of justifying or reforming moral doctrines. Such dialectic is what is meant here by the phrase ‘moral traditions’, taken as a name for (...)
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  48.  21
    Logic and Contemporary Rhetoric.Frank Boardman, Nancy M. Cavender & Howard Kahane - 2017 - [Boston, MA]: Cengage. Edited by Nancy Cavender & Howard Kahane.
    An introduction to informal logic, critical thinking and rhetoric utilizing actual public discourse .
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  49. On the psychology of prediction.Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky - 1973 - Psychological Review 80 (4):237-251.
    Considers that intuitive predictions follow a judgmental heuristic-representativeness. By this heuristic, people predict the outcome that appears most representative of the evidence. Consequently, intuitive predictions are insensitive to the reliability of the evidence or to the prior probability of the outcome, in violation of the logic of statistical prediction. The hypothesis that people predict by representativeness was supported in a series of studies with both naive and sophisticated university students. The ranking of outcomes by likelihood coincided with the ranking by (...)
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  50.  98
    Logic and contemporary rhetoric: the use of reason in everyday life.Howard Kahane - 1971 - Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Thomson Learning. Edited by Nancy Cavender.
    [This book offers] compilation of examples from TV, newspapers, magazines, advertisements, and our nation's political dialogue.
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