Feeling moved or touched can be accompanied by tears, goosebumps, and sensations of warmth in the centre of the chest. The experience has been described frequently, but psychological science knows little about it. We propose that labelling one’s feeling as being moved or touched is a component of a social-relational emotion that we term kama muta. We hypothesise that it is caused by appraising an intensification of communal sharing relations. Here, we test this by investigating people’s moment-to-moment reports of feeling (...) moved and touched while watching six short videos. We compare these to six other sets of participants’ moment-to-moment responses watching the same videos: respectively, judgements of closeness, reports of weeping, goosebumps, warmth in the centre of the chest, happiness, and sadness. Our eighth timeseries is expert ratings of communal sharing. Timeseries analyses show strong and consistent cross-correlations of feeling moved and touched and closeness with each other and with each of the three physiological variables and expert-rated communal sharing – but distinctiveness from happiness and sadness. These results support our model. (shrink)
Even if one can experiment on relevant factors, learning the causal structure of a dynamical system can be quite difficult if the relevant measurement processes occur at a much slower sampling rate than the “true” underlying dynamics. This problem is exacerbated if the degree of mismatch is unknown. This paper gives a formal characterization of this learning problem, and then provides two sets of results. First, we prove a set of theorems characterizing how causal structures change under undersampling. Second, we (...) develop an algorithm for inferring aspects of the causal structure at the “true” timescale from the causal structure learned from the undersampled data. Research on causal learning in dynamical contexts has largely ignored the challenges of undersampling, but this paper provides a framework and foundation for learning causal structure from this type of complex timeseries data. (shrink)
When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. One psychological characteristic of judgmental forecasting of timeseries, established by research, is that when people make forecasts from series, they tend to underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones, so-called trend-damping. Events in a timeseries can be experienced sequentially, or they can also be retrospectively viewed simultaneously, not experienced individually in real time. In one experiment, (...) we studied the influence of presentation mode on two sorts of judgment: predictions of the next event and estimation of the average value of all the events in the presented series. Participants' responses in dynamic mode were anchored on more recent events than in static mode for all types of judgment but with different consequences; hence, dynamic presentation improved prediction accuracy, but not estimation. These results are not anticipated by existing theoretical accounts; we develop and present an agent-based model—the adaptive anchoring model —to account for the difference between processing sequences of dynamically and statically presented stimuli. ADAM captures how variation in presentation mode produces variation in responses in both forecasting and judgment tasks. ADAM's model predictions for the forecasting and judgment tasks fit better with the response data than a linear-regression timeseries model. Moreover, ADAM outperformed autoregressive-integrated-moving-average and exponential-smoothing models, while neither of these models accounts for people's responses on the average estimation task. (shrink)
Legislative scholars have debated what factors (e.g. divided government) account for the number of important laws a legislative body passes per year. This paper presents a monopoly model for explaining legislative production. It assumes that a legislature adjusts its law production so as to maximize its utility. The model predicts that socio-economic and political changes increase the marginal benefit of law production, whereas low negotiation costs and ample legislative resources decrease the marginal cost of law production. The model is tested (...) in two ways. The first approach compares the legislatures of 42 developed and developing countries. The second analyzes Japanese lawmaking from 1949 to 1990, using an appropriate method for event count timeseries data. Both empirical investigations support the model's predictions for legislative production. (shrink)
This study investigated the stationarity of electrodermal timeseries collected in situations where turn taking in human interactions are involved. In this context, the stationarity of the timeseries is the extent to which a simple model can be used to fit the entire timeseries. The experiment involved seven participants in an emergency response simulation against one opponent. They generated 48 timeseries across six simulations, which were split and re-spliced to (...) separate the team’s turns and the opponent’s turns. Significant differences in R2 coefficients were found for both linear and nonlinear statistical models between experimental conditions, but the difference only amounted to 3% of the accuracy of those models relative to the original data. It was thus concluded that the impact of turn taking on stationarity was a small effect at most. A comparison of synchronization coefficients for the team data, which rely on the collective accuracy of the individual timeseries models, indicated stronger synchronization during periods when the team was watching the opponent’s actions compared to when they took their own turns. It was thus concluded, furthermore, that the common focus of attention prevailed against any non-stationarity that was introduced by turn taking. (shrink)
Source: Author: Ahamed Lebbe Mohamed Aslam, S.M. Ahamed Lebbe There is a relationship between the fiscal deficit and inflation, which was confirmed empirically in several studies conducted in many countries. Sri Lanka has been encountering the problem of inflation for the recent years. But in Sri Lanka, this proposition has not yet been studied scientifically. Therefore, this study was going to fill this gap. The objective of this study was to test the impact of fiscal deficit on inflation in Sri (...) Lanka. For this study, the annual timeseries data were used during the period of 1959 to 2013. The fiscal deficit, exchange rate, government expenditures and import outflow were used as independent variables while the Colombo consumer price index was considered as dependent variable. In addition, the multiple regressions model was used to test the impact of fiscal deficit on inflation. Based on the regression results, the fiscal deficit preserved the positive relationship with inflation in Sri Lanka at one percent significant level. Therefore, this study confirmed that the fiscal deficit accelerates the inflation in Sri Lanka. ]]>. (shrink)
This paper examines the accounts of limit decision advanced by Hervaeus Natalis and Durand of St. Pourçain in their respective discussions of the sanctification of the Blessed Virgin. Hervaeus and Durand argue, against Aristotle, that the temporal limits of certain changes, including Mary’s sanctification, should be assigned in discrete rather than continuous time. The paper first considers Hervaeus’ discussion of limit decision and argues that, for Hervaeus, a solution of temporal limits in terms of discrete time can coexist (...) with an Aristotelian continuous time solution because Hervaeus takes continuous and discrete time to be two non-intersecting, but correlated time-series. The paper next examines Durand’s account of limit decision and argues that Durand rejects Hervaeus’ correlation assumption as well as Aristotle’s continuous time solution. (shrink)
We suggest that the network approach to comorbidity (Cramer et al.) is best examined by using longitudinal, multi-measurement, intra-individual data. Employment of time-series analysis to the examination of the generalized anxiety disorder and major depressive disorder comorbidity enables a detailed appreciation of fluctuations and causal trajectories in terms of both symptoms and cognitive vulnerability.
Mining timeseries data is of great significance in various areas. To efficiently find representative patterns in these data, this article focuses on the definition of a valid dissimilarity measure and the acceleration of partitioning clustering, a common group of techniques used to discover typical shapes of timeseries. Dissimilarity measure is a crucial component in clustering. It is required, by some particular applications, to be invariant to specific transformations. The rationale for using the angle between (...) two timeseries to define a dissimilarity is analyzed. Moreover, our proposed measure satisfies the triangle inequality with specific restrictions. This property can be employed to accelerate clustering. An integrated algorithm is proposed. The experiments show that angle-based dissimilarity captures the essence of timeseries patterns that are invariant to amplitude scaling. In addition, the accelerated algorithm outperforms the standard one as redundancies are pruned. Our approach has been applied to discover typical patterns of information diffusion in an online social network. Analyses revealed the formation mechanisms of different patterns. (shrink)
In an approach to quantify the locomotor response to environmental stimuli in fishes and its central control mechanisms, initially stochastic models of spontaneous locomotor behavior are being formulated. In the present paper, the locomotor patterns of three active nurse shark,Ginglymostoma cirratum, in six experiments are converted into 17 locomotor variables and found to have definite timeseries structure. Sixty-seven of the 102 first order serial correlation coefficients are statistically significant, the incidence rate of which differs between experiments and (...) between locomotor variables. The percent residual variation about an autoregressive equation is transformed by a Fisher's z statistic and the means are found to differ significantly among experiments and among variables. The experiment by variable interaction is very low implying a consistency in the ranks of the variables despite the wide differences in their absolute levels over the experiments. This suggests the existence of a relatively rigid albeit occasionally latent locomotor control mechanism in the central nervous system. (shrink)
In a timeseries study of the USA from 1933 to 1984, fertility rates were associated with the suicide rates of those aged 15–44. The higher the fertility rate the lower the suicide rate for these age groups, for both whites and non-whites, and for both men and women. The results were seen as supporting Durkheim's theory of suicide.
In this paper, I investigate the nature of the metaphysical possibility of disunified time. A possibility that I argue presents unique problems for those who adhere to a strict A-theory of time, particularly those A-theorists who propose a presentist view. The first part of the paper discusses various arguments against the coherence of the concept of disunified time. I attempt to discount each of these objections and show that disunified time is indeed a possible and consistent (...) topology of time. Then, I attempt to show that disunified time is a problem for a semantics based on the A-series since A-truthmakers are hard to come by in a universe of temporally disconnected time-series. Finally, I provide a novel argument showing that presentists should be particularly fearful of such a universe. (shrink)
Elliot Sober () forcefully restates his well-known counterexample to Reichenbach's principle of the common cause: bread prices in Britain and sea levels in Venice both rise over time and are, therefore, correlated; yet they are ex hypothesi not causally connected, which violates the principle of the common cause. The counterexample employs nonstationary data—i.e., data with time-dependent population moments. Common measures of statistical association do not generally reflect probabilistic dependence among nonstationary data. I demonstrate the inadequacy of the counterexample (...) and of some previous responses to it, as well as illustrating more appropriate measures of probabilistic dependence in the nonstationary case. A challenge to the principle of the common causeSober's argument and the attempts to rescue the principleProbabilistic dependenceNonstationary time seriesProbabilistic dependence in nonstationary time seriesDo Venetian sea levels and British bread prices violate the principle of the common cause? (shrink)
In this study we analyze daily data on television viewing in the Netherlands. We postulate hypotheses on supply and demand factors that could impact the amount of daily viewing time. Although the general assumption is that supply and demand often correlate, we see that for television this is only marginally the case. Especially diversity of program supply, often deemed very important in media markets, does not affect television viewing behavior. Most variation in television viewing can be attributed to habit (...) and to regular events and to unexpected events. We also find that weather conditions interact with program types, so that, for example, in winter times people favor entertainment programs even more, suggesting that people use television for mood management. (shrink)
In the absence of continuing selves or persons, Buddhist philosophers are under pressure to provide a systematic account of phenomenological and other features of conscious experience. Any such Buddhist account of experience, however, faces further problems because of another cardinal tenet of Buddhist revisionary metaphysics: the doctrine of impermanence, which during the Abhidharma period is transformed into the doctrine of momentariness. Setting aside the problems that plague the Buddhist Abhidharma theory of experience because of lack of persons, I shall focus (...) on problems that arise because of its allegiance to momentariness and explore some responses on behalf of the Abhidharma Buddhist philosophers. I address two challenges to the Buddhist view in this paper. The first, which I will call the “Phenomenological Challenge”, primarily concerns the temporal properties of what is represented in conscious experience. The second, which I will call the “Metaphysical Challenge”, concerns the temporal properties of conscious representation itself. (shrink)