Linked bibliography for the SEP article "Legal Probabilism" by Rafal Urbaniak and Marcello Di Bello

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Aitken, Colin, Paul Roberts, and Graham Jackson, 2010, “Fundamentals of Probability and Statistical Evidence in Criminal Proceedings: Guidance for Judges, Lawyers, Forensic Scientists and Expert Witnesses” (Practitioners Guide No 1), Royal Statistical Society’s Working Group on Statistics and the Law. [Aitken, Roberts, and Jackson 2010 available online] (Scholar)
Aitken, Colin G.G. and Franco Taroni, 1995 [2004], Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists, Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons. Second edition, 2004. doi:10.1002/0470011238
Allen, Ronald J., 1986, “A Reconceptualization of Civil Trials”, Boston University Law Review, 66: 401–437.
–––, 2013, “Complexity, the Generation of Legal Knowledge, and the Future of Litigation”, UCLA Law Review, 60: 1384–1411.
–––, 2014, “Burdens of Proof”, Law, Probability and Risk, 13(3–4): 195–219. doi:10.1093/lpr/mgu005
–––, 2017, “The Nature of Juridical Proof: Probability as a Tool in Plausible Reasoning”. International Journal of Evidence and Proof, 21(2): 133-142.
–––, 2020, “Legal Probabilism–––A Qualified Rejection: A Response to Hedden and Colyvan”. Journal of Political Philosophy, 28(1): 117-128.
–––, 2021, “Naturalized Epistemology and the Law of Evidence Revisited”, Quaestio Facti, 2: 253–283.
Allen, Ronald J., David J. Balding, Peter Donnelly, Richard Friedman, David H. Kaye, Lewis Henry LaRue, Roger C. Park, Bernard Robertson, and Alexander Stein, 1995, “Probability and Proof in State v. Skipper: An Internet Exchange”, Jurimetrics, 35(3): 277–310.
Allen, Ronald J. and Brian Leiter, 2001, “Naturalized Epistemology and the Law of Evidence”, Virginia Law Review, 87(8): 1491–1550.
Allen, Ronald J. and Alex Stein, 2013, “Evidence, Probability and the Burden of Proof”, Arizona Law Journal, 55(3): 557–602.
Allen, Ronald J. and Michael S. Pardo, 2007, “The Problematic Value of Mathematical Models of Evidence”, The Journal of Legal Studies, 36(1): 107–140. doi:10.1086/508269
–––, 2019, “Relative Plausibility and Its Critics”, The International Journal of Evidence & Proof, 23(1–2): 5–59. doi:10.1177/1365712718813781
Amaya, Amalia, 2015, The Tapestry of Reason: An Inquiry into the Nature of Coherence and its Role in Legal Argument, Oxford: Hart Publishing.
Arkes, Hal R., Brittany Shoots-Reinhard, and Ryan S. Mayes, 2012, “Disjunction Between Probability and Verdict in Juror Decision Making”, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 25(3): 276–294. doi:10.1002/bdm.734
Balding, David J., 2002, “The DNA Database Search Controversy”, Biometrics, 58(1): 241–244. doi:10.1111/j.0006-341X.2002.00241.x
–––, 2005, Weight-of-Evidence for Forensic DNA Profiles, Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
Balding, David J. and Peter Donnelly, 1996, “Evaluating DNA Profile Evidence When the Suspect Is Identified Through a Database Search”, Journal of Forensic Sciences, 41(4): 13961J. doi:10.1520/JFS13961J
Barker, Matthew J., 2017, “Connecting Applied and Theoretical Bayesian Epistemology: Data Relevance, Pragmatics, and the Legal Case of Sally Clark”, Journal of Applied Philosophy, 34(2): 242–262. doi:10.1111/japp.12181
Becker, Gary S., 1968, “Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach”, Journal of Political Economy, 76(2): 169–217. doi:10.1086/259394
Bernoulli, Jacobi, 1713, Ars Conjectandi, Basileae : Impensis Thurnisiorum, fratrum. Translated as The Art of Conjecture, 2005, Edith Dudley Sylla (trans), Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.
Bex, Floris J., 2011, Arguments, Stories and Criminal Evidence: A Formal Hybrid Theory (Law and Philosophy Library 92), Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands. doi:10.1007/978-94-007-0140-3
–––, 2015, “An Integrated Theory of Causal Stories and Evidential Arguments”, in Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Law (ICAIL ’15), San Diego CA: ACM Press, 13–22. doi:10.1145/2746090.2746094
Biedermann, Alex, Tacha Hicks, Franco Taroni, Christophe Champod, and Colin Aitken, 2014, “On the Use of the Likelihood Ratio for Forensic Evaluation: Response to Fenton et al.”, Science & Justice, 54(4): 316–318. doi:10.1016/j.scijus.2014.04.001
Blome-Tillmann, Michael, 2017, “‘More Likely Than Not’—Knowledge First and the Role of Bare Statistical Evidence in Courts of Law”, in Adam Carter, Emma Gordon, & Benjamin Jarvi (eds.), Knowledge First—Approaches in Epistemology and Mind, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 278–292. doi:10.1093/oso/9780198716310.003.0014
Bolinger, Renèe Jorgensen, 2021, “Explaining the Justificatory Asymmetry Between Statistical and Individualized Evidence”, in The Social Epistemology of Legal Trials, Zachary Hoskins and Jon Robson (eds.), New York: Routledge, pages 60–76.
Boole, George, 1857, “On the Application of the Theory of Probabilities to the Question of the Combination of Testimonies or Judgments”, Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, 21(4): 597–653. doi:10.1017/S0080456800032312
Bovens, Luc and Stephan Hartmann, 2004, Bayesian Epistemology, Oxford: Oxford University Press. doi:10.1093/0199269750.001.0001
Bradley, Darren, 2015, A Critical Introduction to Formal Epistemology, London: Bloomsbury Publishing.
Calabresi, Guido, 1961, “Some Thoughts on Risk Distribution and the Law of Torts”, Yale Law Journal, 70(4): 499–553.
Cheng, Edward K., 2009, “A Practical Solution to the Reference Class Problem”, Columbia Law Review, 109: 2081–2105.
–––, 2012, “Reconceptualizing the Burden of Proof”, Yale Law Journal, 122(5): 1254–1279.
Cheng, Edward K. and G. Alexander Nunn, 2016, “DNA, Blue Bus, and Phase Changes”, The International Journal of Evidence & Proof, 20(2): 112–120. doi:10.1177/1365712715623556
Cheng, Edward K. and Michael S. Pardo, 2015, “Accuracy, Optimality and the Preponderance Standard”, Law, Probability and Risk, 14(3): 193–212. doi:10.1093/lpr/mgv001
Childers, Timothy, 2013, Philosophy and Probability, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Cohen, L. Jonathan, 1977, The Probable and The Provable, Oxford: Oxford University Press. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198244127.001.0001
–––, 1981, “Subjective Probability and the Paradox of the Gatecrasher”, Arizona State Law Journal, 1981: 627–634.
Colyvan, Mark and Helen M. Regan, 2007, “Legal Decisions and the Reference Class Problem”, The International Journal of Evidence & Proof, 11(4): 274–285. doi:10.1350/ijep.2007.11.4.274
Colyvan, Mark, Helen M. Regan, and Scott Ferson, 2001, “Is It a Crime to Belong to a Reference Class”, Journal of Political Philosophy, 9(2): 168–181. doi:10.1111/1467-9760.00123
Condorcet, Marquis de, 1785, Essai sur l’application de l’analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix, Paris.
Cook, R., I.W. Evett, G. Jackson, P.J. Jones, and J.A. Lambert, 1998, “A Hierarchy of Propositions: Deciding Which Level to Address in Casework”, Science & Justice, 38(4): 231–239. doi:10.1016/S1355-0306(98)72117-3
Cullison, Alan D., 1969, “Probability Analysis of Judicial Fact-Finding: A Preliminary Outline of the Subjective Approach”, Toledo Law Review, 1: 538–598.
Dahlman, Christian, 2017, “Unacceptable Generalizations in Arguments on Legal Evidence”, Argumentation, 31(1): 83–99. doi:10.1007/s10503-016-9399-1
–––, 2018, “Determining the Base Rate for Guilt”, Law, Probability and Risk, 17(1): 15–28. doi:10.1093/lpr/mgx009
–––, 2020, “Naked Statistical Evidence and Incentives for Lawful Conduct”, The International Journal of Evidence & Proof, 24(2): 162–179. doi:10.1177/1365712720913333
Dant, Mary, 1988, “Gambling on the Truth: The Use of Purely Statistical Evidence as a Basis for Civil Liability”, Columbia Journal of Law and Social Problems, 22: 31–70.
Davidson, Barbara and Robert Pargetter, 1987, “Guilt beyond Reasonable Doubt”, Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 65(2): 182–187. doi:10.1080/00048408712342861
Dawid, Alexander Philip, 1987, “The Difficulty About Conjunction”, The Statistician, 36(2/3): 91–97. doi:10.2307/2348501
–––, 1994, “The Island Problem: Coherent Use of Identification Evidence”, in Aspects of Uncertainty: A Tribute to D. V. Lindley, P. R. Freeman and A. F. M. Smith (eds.), Chichester/New York: Wiley, pp. 159–170.
–––, 2002, “Bayes’s Theorem and Weighing Evidence by Juries”, in Bayes’s Theorem, Richard Swinburne (ed.), Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 71–90.
Dawid, A. Philip and Julia Mortera, 1996, “Coherent Analysis of Forensic Identification Evidence”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 58(2): 425–443. doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02091.x
–––, 2018, “Graphical Models for Forensic Analysis”, in Handbook of Graphical Models, Marloes Maathuis, Mathias Drton, Steffen Lauritzen, and Martin Wainwright (eds.), Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, pp. 491–514.
DeKay, Michael L., 1996, “The Difference between Blackstone-Like Error Ratios and Probabilistic Standards of Proof”, Law & Social Inquiry, 21(1): 95–132. doi:10.1111/j.1747-4469.1996.tb00013.x
Dempster, A. P., 1968, “A Generalization of Bayesian Inference”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 30(2): 205–232. doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1968.tb00722.x
Devitt, Edward J., Charles B. Blackmar and Michael A .Wolff, 1987, Federal Jury Practice and Instructions, (4th ed), St. Paul: West Publishing Company.
de Zoete, Jacob, Marjan Sjerps, and Ronald Meester, 2017, “Evaluating Evidence in Linked Crimes with Multiple Offenders”, Science & Justice, 57(3): 228–238. doi:10.1016/j.scijus.2017.01.003
de Zoete, Jacob, Norman Fenton, Takao Noguchi, and David Lagnado, 2019, “Resolving the So-Called ‘Probabilistic Paradoxes in Legal Reasoning’ with Bayesian Networks”, Science & Justice, 59(4): 367–379. doi:10.1016/j.scijus.2019.03.003
de Zoete, Jacob and Marjan Sjerps, 2018, “Combining Multiple Pieces of Evidence Using a Lower Bound for the LR”, Law, Probability and Risk, 17(2): 163–178. doi:10.1093/lpr/mgy006
Diamond, Henry A., 1990, “Reasonable Doubt: To Define, or Not to Define”, Columbia Law Review, 90(6): 1716–1736.
Di Bello, Marcello, 2019, “Trial by Statistics: Is a High Probability of Guilt Enough to Convict?”, Mind, 128(512): 1045–1084. doi:10.1093/mind/fzy026
Di Bello, Marcello and Collin O’Neil, 2020, “Profile Evidence, Fairness, and the Risks of Mistaken Convictions”, Ethics, 130(2): 147–178. doi:10.1086/705764
Di Bello, Marcello and Bart Verheij, 2018, “Evidential Reasoning”, in Handbook of Legal Reasoning and Argumentation, Giorgio Bongiovanni, Gerald Postema, Antonino Rotolo, Giovanni Sartor, Chiara Valentini, and Douglas Walton (eds.), Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 447–493. doi:10.1007/978-90-481-9452-0_16
Donnelly, Peter, 1995, “Nonindependence of Matches at Different Loci in DNA Profiles: Quantifying the Effect of Close Relatives on the Match Probability”, Heredity, 75(1): 26–34. doi:10.1038/hdy.1995.100
Donnelly, Peter and Richard D. Friedman, 1999, “DNA Database Searches and the Legal Consumption of Scientific Evidence”, Michigan Law Review, 97(4): 931–984. doi:10.2307/1290377
Dror, Itiel E., David Charlton, and Ailsa E. Péron, 2006, “Contextual Information Renders Experts Vulnerable to Making Erroneous Identifications”, Forensic Science International, 156(1): 74–78. doi:10.1016/j.forsciint.2005.10.017
Duff, Antony, Lindsay Farmer, Sandra Marshall, and Victor Tadros, 2007, The Trial on Trial (Volume 3): Towards a Normative Theory of the Criminal Trial, Oxford: Hart Publishing.
Earman, John, 1992, Bayes or Bust? A Critical Examination of Bayesian Confirmation Theory, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Ebert, Philip A., Martin Smith, and Ian Durbach, 2018, “Lottery Judgments: A Philosophical and Experimental Study”, Philosophical Psychology, 31(1): 110–138. doi:10.1080/09515089.2017.1367767
Edwards, Ward, 1991, “Influence Diagrams, Bayesian Imperialism, and the Collins Case: An Appeal to Reason”, Cardozo Law Review, 13: 1025–1074.
Eggleston, Richard, 1978, Evidence, Proof and Probability, London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson.
Ekelöf, Per Olof, 1964, “Free Evaluation of Evidence”, Scandinavian Studies in Law, 8: 47–66.
[ENFSI] European Network of Forensic Science Institutes, 2015, ENFSI Guidelines for Evaluative Reporting in Forensic Sciences. [ENFSI 2015 available online]
Engel, Christoph, 2012, “Neglect the Base Rate: It’s the Law!”, Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Research on Collective Goods Preprint, 2012/23. doi:10.2139/ssrn.2192423
Enoch, David and Talia Fisher, 2015, “Sense and ‘Sensitivity’: Epistemic and Instrumental Approaches to Statistical Evidence”, Stanford Law Review, 67: 557–611.
Enoch, David, Levi Spectre, and Talia Fisher, 2012, “Statistical Evidence, Sensitivity, and the Legal Value of Knowledge”, Philosophy & Public Affairs, 40(3): 197–224. doi:10.1111/papa.12000
Evett, I.W., 1987, “On Meaningful Questions: A Two-Trace Transfer Problem”, Journal of the Forensic Science Society, 27(6): 375–381. doi:10.1016/S0015-7368(87)72785-6
Evett, I.W., G. Jackson, and J.A. Lambert, 2000, “More on the Hierarchy of Propositions: Exploring the Distinction between Explanations and Propositions”, Science & Justice, 40(1): 3–10. doi:10.1016/S1355-0306(00)71926-5
Fenton, Norman, Daniel Berger, David Lagnado, Martin Neil, and Anne Hsu, 2014, “When ‘Neutral’ Evidence Still Has Probative Value (with Implications from the Barry George Case)”, Science & Justice, 54(4): 274–287. doi:10.1016/j.scijus.2013.07.002
Fenton, Norman, David Lagnado, Christian Dahlman, and Martin Neil, 2019, “The Opportunity Prior: A Proof-Based Prior for Criminal Cases”, Law, Probability and Risk, 15(4): 237–253. doi:10.1093/lpr/mgz007
Fenton, Norman and Martin Neil, 2013 [2018], Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks, Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/ CRC Press. Second edition, 2018.
Fenton, Norman, Martin Neil, and David A. Lagnado, 2013, “A General Structure for Legal Arguments About Evidence Using Bayesian Networks”, Cognitive Science, 37(1): 61–102. doi:10.1111/cogs.12004
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Friedman, Richard D., 1986, “A Diagrammatic Approach to Evidence”, Boston University Law Review, 66(4): 571–622.
–––, 1987, “Route Analysis of Credibility and Hearsay”, The Yale Law Journal, 97(4): 667–742.
–––, 1996, “Assessing Evidence”, (Review of Aitken & Taroni 1995 and Robertson & Vignaux 1995) Michigan Law Review, 94(6): 1810–1838.
–––, 2000, “A Presumption of Innocence, Not of Even Odds”, Stanford Law Review, 52(4): 873–887.
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–––, 2019, “The Reasonable and the Relevant: Legal Standards of Proof”, Philosophy & Public Affairs, 47(3): 288–318. doi:10.1111/papa.12149
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Gastwirth, Joseph L., Boris Freidlin, and Weiwen Miao, 2000, “The Shonubi Case as an Example of the Legal System’s Failure to Appreciate Statistical Evidence”, in Gastwirth 2000: 405–413. doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-1216-4_21
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–––, 1979b, “The Laws of Probability and the Law of the Land”, The University of Chicago Law Review, 47(1): 34–56.
–––, 1979c, “The Paradox of the Gatecrasher and Other Stories”, The Arizona State Law Journal, 1979: 101–110.
–––, 1980, “Mathematical Models and Legal Realities: Some Comments on the Poisson Model of Jury Behavior”, Connecticut Law Review, 13(1): 1–15.
–––, 1982, “The Limits of the Preponderance of the Evidence Standard: Justifiably Naked Statistical Evidence and Multiple Causation”, American Bar Foundation Research Journal, 7(2): 487–516. doi:10.1111/j.1747-4469.1982.tb00464.x
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–––, 2016, The Burdens of Proof: Discriminatory Power, Weight of Evidence, and Tenacity of Belief, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/CBO9781316415771
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