The PhilPapers SurveysPreliminary Metasurvey results (Back to contents)
Note: |error| = absolute error
A priori knowledge: yes or no?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Yes | 54.2% | 71.1% | -16.9% | 21.3% | 48% | 34% |
| No | 32.5% | 18.4% | 14.1% | 17.2% | 32% | 18% |
| Other | 13.3% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 9.0% | 7% | 2% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 204
Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Nominalism | 45.5% | 37.7% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 34% | 16% |
| Platonism | 34.8% | 39.3% | -4.5% | 14.7% | 25% | 8% |
| Other | 19.7% | 23.0% | -3.3% | 14.1% | 28% | 6% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 196
Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Subjective | 57.9% | 34.5% | 23.4% | 25.8% | 61% | 41% |
| Objective | 26.9% | 41.0% | -14.1% | 17.8% | 44% | 20% |
| Other | 15.2% | 24.5% | -9.3% | 15.2% | 26% | 3% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 193
Analytic-synthetic distinction: yes or no?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Yes | 42.8% | 64.9% | -22.1% | 24.6% | 60% | 35% |
| No | 42.2% | 27.1% | 15.1% | 18.2% | 36% | 24% |
| Other | 15.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 17% | 6% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 201
Epistemic justification: internalism or externalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Externalism | 44.8% | 42.7% | 2.1% | 11.7% | 17% | 4% |
| Internalism | 36.9% | 26.4% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 21% | 10% |
| Other | 18.3% | 30.8% | -12.5% | 16.8% | 43% | 18% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 191
External world: idealism, skepticism, or non-skeptical realism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Non-skeptical realism | 69.4% | 81.6% | -12.2% | 15.1% | 31% | 15% |
| Skepticism | 12.1% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 12% | 3% |
| Other | 9.9% | 9.2% | 0.7% | 7.2% | 5% | 3% |
| Idealism | 8.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3% | 0% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 204
Free will: compatibilism, libertarianism, or no free will?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Compatibilism | 51.0% | 59.1% | -8.1% | 14.5% | 28% | 8% |
| Libertarianism | 22.3% | 13.7% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 15% | 5% |
| No free will | 16.5% | 12.2% | 4.3% | 8.3% | 7% | 2% |
| Other | 10.1% | 14.9% | -4.8% | 10.1% | 4% | 2% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 196
God: theism or atheism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Atheism | 68.1% | 72.8% | -4.7% | 12.8% | 18% | 9% |
| Theism | 20.8% | 14.6% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 10% | 5% |
| Other | 11.1% | 12.6% | -1.5% | 9.4% | 6% | 2% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 209
Knowledge claims: contextualism, relativism, or invariantism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Invariantism | 36.7% | 31.1% | 5.6% | 14.5% | 25% | 8% |
| Contextualism | 32.5% | 40.1% | -7.5% | 13.5% | 29% | 5% |
| Other | 16.9% | 25.9% | -9.0% | 16.1% | 38% | 3% |
| Relativism | 13.9% | 2.9% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 13% | 2% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 178
Knowledge: empiricism or rationalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Empiricism | 54.4% | 35.0% | 19.4% | 22.1% | 48% | 31% |
| Rationalism | 26.6% | 27.8% | -1.3% | 10.8% | 15% | 3% |
| Other | 19.1% | 37.2% | -18.1% | 22.6% | 59% | 31% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 200
Laws of nature: Humean or non-Humean?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Non-Humean | 42.4% | 57.1% | -14.7% | 19.9% | 46% | 23% |
| Humean | 38.7% | 24.7% | 14.0% | 16.8% | 36% | 17% |
| Other | 18.9% | 18.2% | 0.7% | 13.2% | 14% | 7% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 183
Logic: classical or non-classical?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Classical | 62.5% | 51.6% | 11.0% | 19.5% | 51% | 20% |
| Non-classical | 23.1% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 16% | 9% |
| Other | 14.4% | 33.1% | -18.7% | 21.0% | 59% | 24% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 188
Mental content: internalism or externalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Externalism | 53.6% | 51.1% | 2.5% | 13.4% | 23% | 5% |
| Internalism | 31.5% | 20.0% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 30% | 13% |
| Other | 14.9% | 28.9% | -14.0% | 17.1% | 33% | 2% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 189
Meta-ethics: moral realism or moral anti-realism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Moral realism | 45.0% | 56.4% | -11.4% | 16.3% | 37% | 10% |
| Moral anti-realism | 39.7% | 27.7% | 12.0% | 14.7% | 28% | 12% |
| Other | 15.3% | 15.9% | -0.6% | 10.0% | 6% | 3% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 201
Metaphilosophy: naturalism or non-naturalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Naturalism | 57.3% | 49.8% | 7.4% | 17.2% | 40% | 16% |
| Non-naturalism | 27.7% | 25.9% | 1.8% | 11.3% | 12% | 6% |
| Other | 15.0% | 24.3% | -9.2% | 15.0% | 28% | 2% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 187
Mind: physicalism or non-physicalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Physicalism | 64.2% | 56.5% | 7.7% | 14.8% | 31% | 6% |
| Non-physicalism | 23.9% | 27.1% | -3.2% | 9.4% | 8% | 1% |
| Other | 11.9% | 16.4% | -4.5% | 9.9% | 5% | 1% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 200
Moral judgment: cognitivism or non-cognitivism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Cognitivism | 50.8% | 65.7% | -14.9% | 18.0% | 40% | 19% |
| Non-cognitivism | 34.0% | 17.0% | 17.1% | 18.7% | 42% | 21% |
| Other | 15.1% | 17.3% | -2.2% | 10.8% | 7% | 3% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 195
Moral motivation: internalism or externalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Internalism | 43.6% | 34.9% | 8.7% | 15.3% | 31% | 14% |
| Externalism | 36.4% | 29.8% | 6.7% | 12.1% | 23% | 9% |
| Other | 19.9% | 35.3% | -15.4% | 20.9% | 51% | 27% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 172
Newcomb's problem: one box or two boxes?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Two boxes | 48.3% | 31.4% | 17.0% | 22.2% | 46% | 27% |
| One box | 31.4% | 21.3% | 10.2% | 15.3% | 28% | 9% |
| Other | 20.2% | 47.4% | -27.1% | 31.7% | 77% | 58% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 158
Normative ethics: deontology, consequentialism, or virtue ethics?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Consequentialism | 35.9% | 23.6% | 12.3% | 15.0% | 25% | 9% |
| Deontology | 29.6% | 25.9% | 3.8% | 10.1% | 12% | 5% |
| Virtue ethics | 20.7% | 18.2% | 2.6% | 7.3% | 4% | 2% |
| Other | 13.7% | 32.3% | -18.6% | 21.5% | 61% | 25% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 197
Perceptual experience: disjunctivism, qualia theory, representationalism, or sense-datum theory?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Representationalism | 32.9% | 31.5% | 1.4% | 11.7% | 15% | 3% |
| Qualia theory | 21.2% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 14% | 4% |
| Other | 19.5% | 42.2% | -22.7% | 26.1% | 73% | 44% |
| Disjunctivism | 16.2% | 11.0% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 7% | 1% |
| Sense-datum theory | 10.2% | 3.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 4% | 1% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 158
Personal identity: biological view, psychological view, or further-fact view?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Psychological view | 41.3% | 33.6% | 7.7% | 13.8% | 23% | 8% |
| Biological view | 27.0% | 16.9% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 19% | 9% |
| Further-fact view | 16.5% | 12.2% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 5% | 1% |
| Other | 15.2% | 37.3% | -22.1% | 24.1% | 65% | 33% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 182
Politics: communitarianism, egalitarianism, or libertarianism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Egalitarianism | 41.5% | 34.8% | 6.7% | 14.4% | 27% | 12% |
| Communitarianism | 21.0% | 14.3% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 12% | 2% |
| Libertarianism | 18.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 19% | 8% |
| Other | 18.6% | 41.0% | -22.4% | 25.5% | 73% | 47% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 172
Proper names: Fregean or Millian?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Millian | 44.6% | 34.5% | 10.1% | 17.6% | 41% | 16% |
| Fregean | 34.8% | 28.7% | 6.1% | 13.2% | 24% | 12% |
| Other | 20.6% | 36.8% | -16.2% | 22.2% | 57% | 30% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 182
Science: scientific realism or scientific anti-realism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Scientific realism | 57.9% | 75.1% | -17.2% | 19.1% | 39% | 22% |
| Scientific anti-realism | 27.9% | 11.6% | 16.3% | 16.9% | 30% | 10% |
| Other | 14.2% | 13.3% | 0.9% | 9.4% | 8% | 4% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 204
Teletransporter (new matter): survival or death?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Survival | 42.6% | 36.2% | 6.4% | 15.6% | 32% | 12% |
| Death | 36.4% | 31.1% | 5.3% | 15.4% | 28% | 12% |
| Other | 21.0% | 32.7% | -11.7% | 18.3% | 44% | 22% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 183
Time: A-theory or B-theory?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| B-theory | 44.0% | 26.3% | 17.7% | 20.5% | 48% | 26% |
| A-theory | 30.0% | 15.5% | 14.5% | 15.9% | 29% | 12% |
| Other | 26.0% | 58.2% | -32.2% | 34.3% | 74% | 59% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 141
Trolley problem (five straight ahead, one on side track, turn requires switching, what ought one do?): switch or don't switch?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Switch | 60.5% | 68.2% | -7.7% | 17.7% | 37% | 15% |
| Don't switch | 24.6% | 7.6% | 16.9% | 17.8% | 35% | 20% |
| Other | 14.9% | 24.2% | -9.3% | 15.6% | 31% | 3% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 191
Truth: correspondence, deflationary, or epistemic?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Correspondence | 40.8% | 50.8% | -10.0% | 15.3% | 39% | 14% |
| Deflationary | 29.6% | 24.8% | 4.8% | 10.6% | 17% | 5% |
| Epistemic | 15.5% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 13% | 4% |
| Other | 14.0% | 17.5% | -3.5% | 11.9% | 7% | 4% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 196
Zombies: inconceivable, conceivable but not metaphysically possible, or metaphysically possible?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Conceivable but not metaphysically possible | 35.0% | 35.6% | -0.5% | 13.8% | 25% | 8% |
| Metaphysically possible | 30.6% | 23.3% | 7.3% | 12.9% | 21% | 10% |
| Inconceivable | 18.9% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 8.2% | 6% | 2% |
| Other | 15.5% | 25.1% | -9.6% | 14.7% | 38% | 1% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 177
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