The PhilPapers SurveysPreliminary Metasurvey results (Back to contents)

Population  AOS Normalization (set other=0)(?)
Note: |error| = absolute error

A priori knowledge: yes or no?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Yes51.5%71.1%-19.7%23.4%52%39%
No35.6%18.4%17.3%20.1%39%24%
Other12.9%10.5%2.4%9.2%8%3%

Sample size (non-skipped): 413

Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Nominalism47.5%37.7%9.8%17.0%38%21%
Platonism33.7%39.3%-5.6%15.3%27%9%
Other18.8%23.0%-4.2%14.1%28%5%

Sample size (non-skipped): 399

Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Subjective58.1%34.5%23.6%26.2%63%41%
Objective27.5%41.0%-13.5%18.5%46%22%
Other14.4%24.5%-10.0%15.0%27%2%

Sample size (non-skipped): 403

Analytic-synthetic distinction: yes or no?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Yes43.9%64.9%-21.0%23.9%56%32%
No41.5%27.1%14.4%18.2%37%22%
Other14.7%8.1%6.6%10.8%17%6%

Sample size (non-skipped): 411

Epistemic justification: internalism or externalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Externalism46.6%42.7%3.9%12.9%21%6%
Internalism37.2%26.4%10.8%13.9%22%11%
Other16.2%30.8%-14.6%18.3%52%21%

Sample size (non-skipped): 387

External world: idealism, skepticism, or non-skeptical realism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Non-skeptical realism65.3%81.6%-16.3%18.5%41%23%
Skepticism15.1%4.8%10.3%11.0%18%8%
Other9.9%9.2%0.7%7.6%6%4%
Idealism9.7%4.3%5.4%6.4%5%1%

Sample size (non-skipped): 418

Free will: compatibilism, libertarianism, or no free will?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Compatibilism49.2%59.1%-9.9%15.9%31%11%
Libertarianism22.7%13.7%9.0%11.7%16%6%
No free will18.7%12.2%6.5%10.1%11%5%
Other9.3%14.9%-5.6%10.0%4%1%

Sample size (non-skipped): 409

God: theism or atheism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Atheism65.9%72.8%-7.0%14.6%25%13%
Theism22.0%14.6%7.3%10.6%14%7%
Other12.2%12.6%-0.4%9.7%7%2%

Sample size (non-skipped): 429

Knowledge claims: contextualism, relativism, or invariantism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Invariantism34.4%31.1%3.3%14.7%27%8%
Contextualism32.8%40.1%-7.3%13.3%28%6%
Relativism16.7%2.9%13.8%13.9%23%7%
Other16.2%25.9%-9.7%16.3%37%3%

Sample size (non-skipped): 358

Knowledge: empiricism or rationalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Empiricism52.9%35.0%17.9%21.3%48%27%
Rationalism28.9%27.8%1.1%10.9%15%4%
Other18.2%37.2%-19.0%23.3%61%34%

Sample size (non-skipped): 413

Laws of nature: Humean or non-Humean?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Non-Humean42.0%57.1%-15.1%20.0%49%22%
Humean40.9%24.7%16.2%18.9%41%21%
Other17.0%18.2%-1.1%12.6%11%6%

Sample size (non-skipped): 379

Logic: classical or non-classical?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Classical60.8%51.6%9.3%19.5%49%20%
Non-classical25.6%15.4%10.3%13.7%21%12%
Other13.5%33.1%-19.5%22.0%64%26%

Sample size (non-skipped): 379

Mental content: internalism or externalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Externalism51.3%51.1%0.1%14.0%25%7%
Internalism34.2%20.0%14.2%15.6%37%19%
Other14.5%28.9%-14.4%17.5%35%1%

Sample size (non-skipped): 387

Meta-ethics: moral realism or moral anti-realism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Moral realism44.5%56.4%-11.9%17.1%40%15%
Moral anti-realism41.4%27.7%13.7%16.5%34%18%
Other14.1%15.9%-1.8%10.2%6%2%

Sample size (non-skipped): 410

Metaphilosophy: naturalism or non-naturalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Naturalism58.2%49.8%8.4%17.2%41%18%
Non-naturalism28.3%25.9%2.4%11.6%15%6%
Other13.5%24.3%-10.8%15.4%31%2%

Sample size (non-skipped): 391

Mind: physicalism or non-physicalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Physicalism62.8%56.5%6.3%15.0%29%8%
Non-physicalism25.2%27.1%-1.9%10.3%11%3%
Other12.0%16.4%-4.4%10.4%4%2%

Sample size (non-skipped): 417

Moral judgment: cognitivism or non-cognitivism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Cognitivism50.3%65.7%-15.4%18.6%41%21%
Non-cognitivism35.4%17.0%18.4%19.8%44%24%
Other14.3%17.3%-3.0%10.6%6%2%

Sample size (non-skipped): 404

Moral motivation: internalism or externalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Internalism43.4%34.9%8.5%15.1%30%14%
Externalism38.4%29.8%8.6%13.6%28%13%
Other18.2%35.3%-17.1%21.5%56%27%

Sample size (non-skipped): 351

Newcomb's problem: one box or two boxes?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Two boxes46.3%31.4%15.0%21.2%43%23%
One box32.1%21.3%10.8%15.6%28%9%
Other21.6%47.4%-25.8%31.6%77%58%

Sample size (non-skipped): 287

Normative ethics: deontology, consequentialism, or virtue ethics?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Consequentialism36.8%23.6%13.2%15.1%25%11%
Deontology30.0%25.9%4.1%9.8%11%3%
Virtue ethics21.0%18.2%2.8%7.7%5%1%
Other12.2%32.3%-20.1%21.9%65%27%

Sample size (non-skipped): 403

Perceptual experience: disjunctivism, qualia theory, representationalism, or sense-datum theory?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Representationalism33.8%31.5%2.4%12.4%18%5%
Qualia theory20.9%12.2%8.6%11.1%11%3%
Other17.8%42.2%-24.4%27.2%74%50%
Disjunctivism15.7%11.0%4.8%8.0%6%1%
Sense-datum theory11.8%3.1%8.7%9.2%10%3%

Sample size (non-skipped): 324

Personal identity: biological view, psychological view, or further-fact view?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Psychological view41.1%33.6%7.5%13.8%25%8%
Biological view27.6%16.9%10.7%13.4%22%9%
Further-fact view17.0%12.2%4.8%8.3%7%1%
Other14.3%37.3%-23.0%24.8%68%36%

Sample size (non-skipped): 370

Politics: communitarianism, egalitarianism, or libertarianism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Egalitarianism40.4%34.8%5.6%14.8%30%11%
Libertarianism21.9%9.9%12.0%12.9%27%12%
Communitarianism21.7%14.3%7.5%10.1%14%5%
Other15.9%41.0%-25.1%27.3%76%55%

Sample size (non-skipped): 361

Proper names: Fregean or Millian?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Millian44.4%34.5%9.9%17.5%38%17%
Fregean36.1%28.7%7.4%14.2%26%14%
Other19.6%36.8%-17.3%22.7%58%30%

Sample size (non-skipped): 351

Science: scientific realism or scientific anti-realism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Scientific realism57.5%75.1%-17.6%19.3%42%24%
Scientific anti-realism28.7%11.6%17.1%17.6%31%13%
Other13.8%13.3%0.5%9.6%8%4%

Sample size (non-skipped): 416

Teletransporter (new matter): survival or death?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Survival41.7%36.2%5.5%16.1%34%15%
Death37.9%31.1%6.8%16.4%30%14%
Other20.3%32.7%-12.3%19.2%48%23%

Sample size (non-skipped): 371

Time: A-theory or B-theory?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
B-theory43.2%26.3%16.9%20.5%46%24%
A-theory31.5%15.5%16.0%17.5%34%17%
Other25.3%58.2%-32.9%35.7%77%63%

Sample size (non-skipped): 288

Trolley problem (five straight ahead, one on side track, turn requires switching, what ought one do?): switch or don't switch?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Switch59.9%68.2%-8.3%18.0%37%16%
Don't switch25.2%7.6%17.6%18.4%38%21%
Other14.9%24.2%-9.2%15.9%31%4%

Sample size (non-skipped): 383

Truth: correspondence, deflationary, or epistemic?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Correspondence40.6%50.8%-10.2%16.2%40%15%
Deflationary29.1%24.8%4.3%10.8%16%5%
Epistemic17.4%6.9%10.6%11.4%19%7%
Other12.8%17.5%-4.7%11.7%6%3%

Sample size (non-skipped): 391

Zombies: inconceivable, conceivable but not metaphysically possible, or metaphysically possible?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Conceivable but not metaphysically possible35.8%35.6%0.2%14.7%29%11%
Metaphysically possible29.7%23.3%6.4%13.5%21%10%
Inconceivable19.8%16.0%3.8%9.4%9%4%
Other14.7%25.1%-10.5%15.6%41%1%

Sample size (non-skipped): 360

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