The PhilPapers SurveysPreliminary Metasurvey results (Back to contents)

Population  AOS Normalization (set other=0)(?)
Note: |error| = absolute error

A priori knowledge: yes or no?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Yes54.5%71.1%-16.6%22%50%25%
No29.3%18.4%10.9%14.5%25%13%
Other16.3%10.5%5.7%10.6%8%4%

Sample size (non-skipped): 24

Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Nominalism46.6%37.7%8.9%19.4%37%26%
Platonism32.3%39.3%-7%15.7%42%5%
Other21.2%23%-1.8%15.6%21%5%

Sample size (non-skipped): 19

Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Subjective60.7%34.5%26.2%29.9%71%57%
Objective20.7%41%-20.4%20.4%52%33%
Other18.6%24.5%-5.9%17.5%29%5%

Sample size (non-skipped): 21

Analytic-synthetic distinction: yes or no?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Yes47.4%64.9%-17.5%20.6%48%22%
No35.2%27.1%8.1%13.3%26%17%
Other17.4%8.1%9.3%12.1%13%13%

Sample size (non-skipped): 23

Epistemic justification: internalism or externalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Externalism42.7%42.7%0%12.6%16%0%
Internalism36.8%26.4%10.4%13.3%26%11%
Other20.4%30.8%-10.4%18.2%53%16%

Sample size (non-skipped): 19

External world: idealism, skepticism, or non-skeptical realism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Non-skeptical realism68.5%81.6%-13.1%15.2%32%9%
Other12.4%9.2%3.2%8.7%9%9%
Skepticism11.5%4.8%6.6%7.4%5%0%
Idealism7.6%4.3%3.3%4.5%0%0%

Sample size (non-skipped): 22

Free will: compatibilism, libertarianism, or no free will?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Compatibilism49.1%59.1%-10%17.1%43%5%
No free will19.2%12.2%7%11.1%14%5%
Libertarianism17.1%13.7%3.4%9.1%10%5%
Other14.5%14.9%-0.4%10.8%10%5%

Sample size (non-skipped): 21

God: theism or atheism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Atheism72.9%72.8%0.1%10.8%12%4%
Theism19.3%14.6%4.7%8.7%8%4%
Other7.8%12.6%-4.7%8.9%0%0%

Sample size (non-skipped): 25

Knowledge claims: contextualism, relativism, or invariantism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Contextualism34.2%40.1%-5.8%13%22%6%
Invariantism31.2%31.1%0.1%11.4%11%6%
Other19.7%25.9%-6.2%17.8%39%6%
Relativism14.8%2.9%11.9%11.9%17%6%

Sample size (non-skipped): 18

Knowledge: empiricism or rationalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Empiricism52.8%35%17.8%19.1%35%17%
Rationalism29.7%27.8%1.9%8.9%9%4%
Other17.5%37.2%-19.7%21.7%57%17%

Sample size (non-skipped): 23

Laws of nature: Humean or non-Humean?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Non-Humean38.9%57.1%-18.2%20.3%41%29%
Humean38.4%24.7%13.7%15.4%29%12%
Other22.6%18.2%4.5%16.1%29%6%

Sample size (non-skipped): 17

Logic: classical or non-classical?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Classical58.2%51.6%6.7%19.2%47%16%
Non-classical27.5%15.4%12.1%14.4%32%11%
Other14.3%33.1%-18.8%21.6%63%21%

Sample size (non-skipped): 19

Mental content: internalism or externalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Externalism53.9%51.1%2.7%14%19%10%
Internalism27.1%20%7.1%9.4%19%0%
Other19.0%28.9%-9.8%17.8%33%10%

Sample size (non-skipped): 21

Meta-ethics: moral realism or moral anti-realism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Moral realism42.5%56.4%-13.9%15.7%44%8%
Moral anti-realism38.2%27.7%10.4%14.3%28%12%
Other19.3%15.9%3.4%9.1%12%4%

Sample size (non-skipped): 25

Metaphilosophy: naturalism or non-naturalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Naturalism58.0%49.8%8.2%18.2%43%22%
Non-naturalism27.1%25.9%1.2%12.3%13%9%
Other14.9%24.3%-9.4%15.3%26%4%

Sample size (non-skipped): 23

Mind: physicalism or non-physicalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Physicalism58.9%56.5%2.4%16.2%29%14%
Non-physicalism27.0%27.1%-0.1%11.3%10%5%
Other14.2%16.4%-2.2%10.9%10%0%

Sample size (non-skipped): 21

Moral judgment: cognitivism or non-cognitivism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Cognitivism53.6%65.7%-12.2%14.7%28%12%
Non-cognitivism29.3%17%12.3%14.4%12%8%
Other17.2%17.3%-0.1%9.7%8%4%

Sample size (non-skipped): 25

Moral motivation: internalism or externalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Internalism42.4%34.9%7.5%13.4%26%13%
Externalism36.2%29.8%6.5%10.6%26%4%
Other21.4%35.3%-13.9%19.1%48%17%

Sample size (non-skipped): 23

Newcomb's problem: one box or two boxes?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Two boxes46.5%31.4%15.1%18%28%17%
One box32.3%21.3%11%13%28%11%
Other21.2%47.4%-26.1%28.7%78%39%

Sample size (non-skipped): 18

Normative ethics: deontology, consequentialism, or virtue ethics?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Consequentialism38.5%23.6%14.8%16.4%28%8%
Deontology28.9%25.9%3%9.7%4%0%
Virtue ethics16.5%18.2%-1.7%6%0%0%
Other16.1%32.3%-16.2%21%64%16%

Sample size (non-skipped): 25

Perceptual experience: disjunctivism, qualia theory, representationalism, or sense-datum theory?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Representationalism28.9%31.5%-2.5%13.1%25%6%
Other22.8%42.2%-19.4%23%75%25%
Qualia theory19.4%12.2%7.2%12.2%13%13%
Disjunctivism17.2%11%6.2%8.8%6%0%
Sense-datum theory11.6%3.1%8.5%8.7%13%0%

Sample size (non-skipped): 16

Personal identity: biological view, psychological view, or further-fact view?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Psychological view39.4%33.6%5.8%13.2%29%10%
Biological view25.1%16.9%8.3%11%10%5%
Other20.9%37.3%-16.4%23.7%62%33%
Further-fact view14.6%12.2%2.3%7.1%0%0%

Sample size (non-skipped): 21

Politics: communitarianism, egalitarianism, or libertarianism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Egalitarianism44.9%34.8%10.1%15.2%36%9%
Communitarianism20.0%14.3%5.7%8.5%14%5%
Libertarianism18.1%9.9%8.3%9.4%18%5%
Other17.0%41%-24%24.4%73%41%

Sample size (non-skipped): 22

Proper names: Fregean or Millian?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Millian43.1%34.5%8.6%17.2%32%16%
Fregean32.6%28.7%3.9%14.5%37%21%
Other24.3%36.8%-12.5%21.7%53%37%

Sample size (non-skipped): 19

Science: scientific realism or scientific anti-realism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Scientific realism57.1%75.1%-18%20.2%41%32%
Scientific anti-realism25.7%11.6%14.1%15.2%27%5%
Other17.2%13.3%3.9%10.5%14%5%

Sample size (non-skipped): 22

Teletransporter (new matter): survival or death?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Survival43.2%36.2%7%15.4%30%15%
Death40.2%31.1%9%12.9%25%10%
Other16.7%32.7%-16%18.4%45%15%

Sample size (non-skipped): 20

Time: A-theory or B-theory?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
B-theory37.7%26.3%11.4%13.9%30%20%
A-theory32.6%15.5%17.1%17.2%30%10%
Other29.7%58.2%-28.5%30.9%60%50%

Sample size (non-skipped): 10

Trolley problem (five straight ahead, one on side track, turn requires switching, what ought one do?): switch or don't switch?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Switch58.4%68.2%-9.8%20.1%48%28%
Other21.0%24.2%-3.1%14.4%28%4%
Don't switch20.5%7.6%12.9%14.5%28%8%

Sample size (non-skipped): 25

Truth: correspondence, deflationary, or epistemic?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Correspondence38.4%50.8%-12.4%15.4%48%13%
Deflationary29.7%24.8%4.9%11.6%22%0%
Other17.4%17.5%-0.1%10.7%9%9%
Epistemic14.4%6.9%7.6%9%17%4%

Sample size (non-skipped): 23

Zombies: inconceivable, conceivable but not metaphysically possible, or metaphysically possible?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Conceivable but not metaphysically possible30.7%35.6%-4.8%15.8%24%12%
Metaphysically possible29.2%23.3%5.9%12.7%24%0%
Inconceivable20.7%16%4.7%10%6%6%
Other19.4%25.1%-5.7%13.6%29%0%

Sample size (non-skipped): 17

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