Abstract
Many innovations, such as the introduction of a new fertilizer by a farmer, or the use of a new raw material by a manufacturer, or the adoption of a new hairstyle by a lady of fashion, can be tested on a ‘try-before-buy’ basis. The user (or anyone) can experiment with the proposed innovation in almost precisely the same form and circumstances that it intends to be used, before a firm commitment. Some innovations do not have this happy property. Decisions to go into a new business venture or to overhaul a management system (or to change the length of a lady's nose or to enter the state of holy matrimony) cannot be conveniently replicated before a largely irreversible commitment is made. The methodology of pre-testing such innovations must inevitably depend on evaluation by analogy. It is not well developed, much less theoretically validated.
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The research on which this paper is based was sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the Office of Naval Research, Contracts N00014-76-C-0074 and N00014-74-C-0263.
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Brown, R.V., Watson, S.R. Pre-testing innovation: Methodology for testing the design of management systems. Theor Decis 8, 315–336 (1977). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00141530
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00141530