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MOBILITY OF SCIENTISTS: HOW RELIABLE ARE THE AVAILABLE DATA TOJUDGE TRENDS? MAX M. BURGER* There is a widespread feeling that worldwide budget cuts have led to a concomitant if not overproportional reduction in mobility of scientists. Data available seem to indicate, however, that exchange programs have not been drastically cut. First, I want to present two examples where actual data indeed show a tendency toward a decrease in mobility, and then I would like to question to what degree we have good enough data to come to reliable conclusions about the total movement of scientists. Since 1980, the Swiss parliament has cut most government expenditures by 10 percent. Federally supported research was cut by 10% as well (in 1980, the Swiss Science Foundation had available about US$70 million ; in 1982, about $62.5 million). Federally supported research personnel were reduced during the same time by exactly 10 percent. The exchange programs between the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) and its Swiss counterpart, the National Research Council for Biology and Medicine of the National Science Foundation, began to drop earlier (see table 1) for various reasons. These numbers, however, do not reflect the real traffic of fellows between the two countries. Many of the Swiss scientists who want to go abroad are supported directly by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). They numbered around 100 in the biomedical sciences up to a year ago and then the number dropped drastically, by 30 percent (table 2). Another 20 clinically oriented fellows abroad are supported by a foundation that gets its funds from the SNSF also; because this contribution has not decreased, the drop in federally supported fellows abroad may be reduced to about 25 percent. It is interesting to note that the number of scientists who choose to go to the United States, about three out of every four fellows, remains an amazingly stable number even after the dramatic total drop (table 2). *Biocenter of the University of Basel, Basel, CH-4056, Switzerland.© 1986 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved. 0031-5982/86/2932/$0 1 .00 S66 I Max M. Burger ¦ Mobility of Scientists TABLE 1 International Research Fellowship Program between the Swiss National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) 1979* 1980 1981 1982 1983 Americans coming to Switzerlandt ............... 8 7 4 5 4 Swiss going to the United Statesi ................ 3 5 4 2 2 Source.—[4]. *ln earlier years, there were often more Swiss going to the United States than Americans going to Switzerland. tSupported by the Swiss NSF !Supported by the U.S. NIH. The decrease in mobility of scientists is also demonstrated by the experience of a private international institution, the International Union against Cancer (UICC). Similar to the European Molecular Biology Organization (EMBO), it created a short-term fellowship program called International Cancer Research Technology Transfer (ICRETT) program in 1976. It was entirely funded by the National Cancer Institute (NCI) of the United States until 1980, at which point NCI reduced its contribution by about 80 percent and several other, mostly European, countries picked up part of the tab. The program had proven to be a highly efficient, well-administered program with an unexpected impact on the cancer research community. This year about $100,000 for this program came from NCI and $150,000 from other nations and UICC. TABLE 2 Swiss postdoctorals working outside Switzerland and supported directly by the National Research Council for Biology and Medicine Period in Career1979 1980 1981 Immediately after M.D. or Ph.D.: Overall .................... 8280788455 To the United States ........ 6060605541 2-3 years after M.D. or Ph.D.: Overall .................... 2314212016 To the United States ........ 1512181312 Junior and senior postdocs together: Overall .................. 105949910471 To the United States (percent) ................. 75(71) 72(76) 78(79) 68(65) 53(75) Source.—[4]. Perspectives in Biology and Medicine, 29, 3, Part 2 · Spring 1986 \ S67 TABLE 3 International Cancer Research Technology Transfer Fellowships Awarded by the International Union against Cancer (UICC) Year ................ 19761977 19781979 1980 19811982 No. of fellowships awarded ............. 401021031261396560 Note.—Until 1980, funds came exclusively from the National Cancer Institute (NCI); from 1981, about one-halfcame from the NCI, the...

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