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Resolving some contradictions in the theory of linear opinion pools

(comments on “Learning from others: conditioning versus averaging” by Richard Bradley)

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Abstract

Bradley (Theory Decis 85:5–20, 2018) develops some theory of the linear opinion pool, in apparent contradiction to results of Dawid et al. (Test 4:263–314, 1995). We investigate the sources of these contradictions, and in particular identify a mathematical error in Bradley (2018) that invalidates his main result.

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Notes

  1. There are some typos in the formulae here, with \(\alpha _0\) variously rendered as \(a_3\) and \(\alpha _3\).

References

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

    A. Philip Dawid

  2. Università Roma Tre, Rome, Italy

    Julia Mortera

Authors
  1. A. Philip Dawid
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  2. Julia Mortera
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Correspondence to A. Philip Dawid.

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Dawid, A.P., Mortera, J. Resolving some contradictions in the theory of linear opinion pools. Theory Decis 88, 453–456 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-019-09729-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-019-09729-0

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