Abstract
The evaluation of probabilities, or the art of forecasting (in the judicious sense of weighing the chances of possible outcomes: not as sheer prophecy), is neither a question of taste (descriptive attitude) nor a mathematically determined question (normative attitude). All evaluations are (logically) admissible, provided only that coherence is satisfied; among these, everybody may judge one or the other more or less ‘reasonable’ (that is, in short, more or less in agreement with his own evaluation, or with the most popular one). The major aspect of coherence consists in conforming “learning from experience” to Bayes’ theorem.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
Bibliography
de Finetti, B., ‘Foresight: Its Logical Laws, Its Subjective Sources’, in H. F,. Kyburg and H. E., Smokler (eds.), Studies on Subjective Probability, Wiley, New York, 1964, pp 93–158.
de Finetti, B., Teoria delle Probabilità, Finaudi, Torino 1970; English translation: Theory of Probability Wiley, London, Vol. 1, 1974; Vol. II in press
de Finetti, B., Probability, Induction and Statistics, Wiley, New York, 1972.
Edwards, W., ‘Conservatism in Human Information Processing’, in B Kleinmuntz (ed), Format Representation of Human Judgment, Wiley, New York, pp. 17–52.
Good, I.J., Probability and the Weighing of Evidence, Griffin, London, 1950.
McCarthy, J., ‘Measures of the Value of Information’, Proceedings of the Mattonai Academy of Sciences, 42 (1956), 654–655.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1974 D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht-Holland
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
de Finetti, B. (1974). The Value of Studying Subjective Evaluations of Probability. In: Staël Von Holstein, CA.S. (eds) The Concept of Probability in Psychological Experiments. Theory and Decision Library, vol 8. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-2288-0_1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-2288-0_1
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-010-2290-3
Online ISBN: 978-94-010-2288-0
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive