Abstract
Strictly proper scoring rules have been studied widely in statistical decision theory and recently in experimental economics because of their ability to encourage assessors to honestly provide their true subjective probabilities. In this article, we study the spherical scoring rule by analytically examining some of its properties and providing some new geometric interpretations for this rule. Moreover, we state a theorem which provides an axiomatic characterization for the spherical scoring rule. The objective of this analysis is to provide a better understanding of one of the most commonly available scoring rules, which could aid decision makers in the selection of an appropriate tool for evaluating and assessing probabilistic forecasts.
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Jose, V.R. A Characterization for the Spherical Scoring Rule. Theory Decis 66, 263–281 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-007-9067-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-007-9067-x
Keywords
- decision theory
- probability assessment
- probability elicitation
- proportionality
- strictly proper scoring rule