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The impossibility of experimental elicitation of subjective probabilities

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Abstract

We show that if decision makers may have stakes in certain events then the experimental elicitation of their subjective probabilities of these events is impossible.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA

    Edi Karni

  2. Faculty of Management, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel

    Zvi Safra

Authors
  1. Edi Karni
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  2. Zvi Safra
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Additional information

We thank Eyal Sulganik for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.

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Karni, E., Safra, Z. The impossibility of experimental elicitation of subjective probabilities. Theor Decis 38, 313–320 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01362238

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01362238

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