Abstract
A mathematical model for Vibrio Cholerae (V. Cholerae) in a closed environment is considered, with the aim of investigating the impact of climatic factors which exerts a direct influence on the bacterial metabolism and on the bacterial reservoir capacity. We first propose a V. Cholerae mathematical model in a closed environment. A sensitivity analysis using the eFast method was performed to show the most important parameters of the model. After, we extend this V. cholerae model by taking account climatic factors that influence the bacterial reservoir capacity. We present the theoretical analysis of the model. More precisely, we compute equilibria and study their stabilities. The stability of equilibria was investigated using the theory of periodic cooperative systems with a concave nonlinearity. Theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations which further suggest the necessity to implement sanitation campaigns of aquatic environments by using suitable products against the bacteria during the periods of growth of aquatic reservoirs.
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Notes
Is a variance decomposition method (analogous to ANOVA): input parameters are varied, causing variation in model output. This variation is quantified using the statistical notion of variance \(s^2=\sum _{i=1}^{N}(y_i-\bar{y}){/}N-1\). where N = sample size (or equivalently, total number of model runs), \(y_i\) ith model output, and \(\bar{y}\) sample mean. The algorithm then partitions the output variance, determining what fraction of the variance can be explained by variation in each input parameter (i.e. partial variance).
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Kolaye, G., Damakoa, I., Bowong, S. et al. Theoretical Assessment of the Impact of Climatic Factors in a Vibrio Cholerae Model. Acta Biotheor 66, 279–291 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10441-018-9322-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10441-018-9322-2