Inference to the Best Theory, Rather than Inference to the Best Explanation — Kinds of Abduction and Induction

An interesting consequence of the structuralist theory of truth approximation, as developed in my From Instrumentalism to Constructive Realism (2000), henceforth ICR, concerns so-called ‘inference to the best explanation’ (IBE). It will be argued that this popular rule among scientific realists can better be replaced by, various kinds of, ‘inference to the best theory’ (IBT).

I would like to thank in particular Adam Grobler, Ladislav Kvasz, Joke Meheus, Ilkka Niiniluoto, Wolgang Spohn and Igor Douven for their stimulating comments on the draft version. The idea of ‘Inference to the best theory’ is also discussed by Ilkka Niiniluoto (to appear) and by Igor Douven (to appear) in a ‘volume in debate’. Niiniluoto’s paper mainly deals with the unstratified kind and Douven’s paper with the theoretical kind. In both Douvcn’s paper and Kuipers (2002) arguments are given for including non-empirical, e.g. aesthetic, criteria in the comparative assessment of theories, with consequences for the precise formulation of IBT. See further my replies to Douven and Niiniluoto in the volume in debate referred to and my reply to Grobler and Wisniewski (to appear) in the companion volume.