Abstract
Decision-making under partial ignorance and partial knowledge of risk is discussed. The presented approach is unlike traditional approaches, but is not novel. It retains the MEU rule and advocates further determination of probabilities. However, the further determination does not require personal introspection or additional empirical data.
The approach is possible under any inductive theory of rational belief with a parameterized rule of acceptance, wherein the choice of parameter value trades informativeness against freedom from error. With such a rule, it may be possible to identify justifiable determinate probabilities with a judicious choice of parameter value.
I argue that rationality obliges the use of determinate probabilities, if identifiable, and I make a claim about the epistemological priority of some determinate probabilities over others when there is a choice.
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Loui, R.P. Decisions with indeterminate probabilities. Theor Decis 21, 283–309 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00134099
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00134099