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From “multiple simultaneous independent discoveries” to the theory of “multiple simultaneous independent errors”: a conduit in science

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Abstract

Multiple simultaneous independent discoveries (MIDs), so well enunciated by Robert K. Merton in the early 1960s but already discussed for several hundreds of years, is a classic concept in the sociology of science. In this paper, the concept of multiple simultaneous independent errors (MIEs) is proposed, analyzed, and discussed. The concept of Selective Pessimistic Induction is proposed and used to connect MIDs with MIEs. Five types of MIEs are discussed: multiple errors in the interpretation of experimental data or computational results; multiple misjudgments of the value of another’s research results or conclusions; multiple cases of false anticipation of achieving a certain experimental result; multiples of ignoring or omitting relevant precedents; and multiple instances of failure due to a not-yet-conceived scientific concept or principle. Causal MIDs and MIEs are those that can be traced directly to antecedent knowledge. Acausal MIDs and MIEs are those involving a consequential and identifiable leap from antecedent knowledge. Examples of causal and acausal MIEs are provided, mostly but not exclusively from the discipline of chemistry. Comparisons are made between MIDs and MIEs. Topics for future research are discussed and implications of these concepts are proposed.

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Fig. 1

Photograph courtesy of and © Jill Krementz and courtesy of the estate of Robert K. Merton, Harriet Zuckerman, Executor

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Notes

  1. It may be that the term “errors” is poorly chosen for this concept. Philosophers speak of theories being false or closer or more distant from the truth (Kitcher 1993). In this paper, the choice of the word “error” was made based on nomenclature simplicity, not on any sophisticated analysis of concepts.

  2. It may be noted that the majority of examples cited herein come from chemistry, the author’s original educational and research discipline. It is not unusual that in discussions of history and philosophy of science, examples from one discipline will very much outweigh those from other disciplines. For example, all of the examples in Paul Feyerabend’s classic Against Method (Feyerabend 1975) come from physics and Gilbert and Mulkay’s classic Opening Pandora’s Box (Gilbert and Mulkay 1984) come from biology.

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Acknowledgements

The author thanks Robert Anderson, Carin Berkowitz, Geoffrey Blumenthal (whose lengthy and scholarly analysis and suggestions arrived only after the paper was in production and thus his input could only partially though usefully be incorporated), Stuart Cantrill, Richard Carchman, Anjan Chakravartty, Amihud Gilead, Roald Hoffmann, Jay Labinger, Seymour Mauskopf, Brannon McDaniel, Lissa Roberts, Eric Scerri, Harriet Zuckerman and one anonymous reviewer for very helpful discussions.

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    Jeffrey I. Seeman

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Correspondence to Jeffrey I. Seeman.

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Dedicated to Harriet Zuckerman in honor of her 80th birthday, July 19, 2017 and to Roald Hoffmann in honor of his 80th birthday, July 18, 2017. This paper also celebrates the career of Robert K. Merton (July 4, 1901–February 23, 2003).

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Seeman, J.I. From “multiple simultaneous independent discoveries” to the theory of “multiple simultaneous independent errors”: a conduit in science. Found Chem 20, 219–249 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10698-018-9304-0

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