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The Temporal Stage Fallacy: A novel Statistical Fallacy in the medical literature

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Abstract

Celebrated for disproving the traditional view that lack of oxygen at birth (perinatal asphyxia) contributes significantly to cerebral palsy, a 1986 New England Journal of Medicine article by Karin Nelson and Jonas Ellenberg engineered a new consensus in the medical community: that lack of oxygen at birth rarely causes cerebral palsy. We demonstrate that the article's central argument relies on straightforwardly fallacious statistical reasoning, and we discuss significant implications -- e.g. how carefully fetuses are monitored during labor and delivery, expert testimony in malpractice cases, and public policy decisions.

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References

  • American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists: 2003a, Obstetrician-Gynecologists and Pediatricians Say Most Newborn Brain Injuries Do Not Occur During Childbirth. ACOG publication

  • American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists: 2003b, Neonatal Encephalopathy and Cerebral Palsy: Defining the Pathogenesis and Pathophysiology. ACOG publication

  • Huber, P.: 1991, Galileo’s Revenge: Junk Science in the Courtroom. Basic Books

  • K. Nelson J. Ellenberg (1986) ArticleTitle‘Antecedents of Cerebral Palsy – Multivariate Analysis of Risk’ New England Journal of Medicine 315 IssueID2 81–86 Occurrence Handle3724803 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaL283lslaqug%3D%3D Occurrence Handle10.1056/NEJM198607103150202

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Philosophy, Washington State University, P.O. Box 645130, Pullman, WA, 99164-5130, USA

    David Shier

  2. Sommers, Schwartz, Silver & Schwartz, 2000 Town Center, Suite 900, Southfield, MI, 48075

    J. Lee Tilson

Authors
  1. David Shier
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  2. J. Lee Tilson
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Correspondence to J. Lee Tilson.

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Shier, D., Tilson, J.L. The Temporal Stage Fallacy: A novel Statistical Fallacy in the medical literature. Med Health Care Philos 9, 243–247 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11019-005-3349-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11019-005-3349-2

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