Abstract
According to the Dutch Book Argument (DBA), if an agent's subjective probabilities fail to satisfy the axioms of the probability calculus and so make the agent vulnerable to a Dutch Book, the agent's subjective probabilities are incoherent and the agent is therefore irrational. Critics of DBA have argued, however, that probabilistic incoherence is compatible with various kinds of rationality – logico-semantic, epistemic, instrumental and prudential. In this paper, I provide an interpretation of DBA on which it is true that probabilistic incoherence entails agent irrationality. Articulating this interpretation requires the specification of some of the connections among the varieties of rationality. Once this is done, it becomes possible to vindicate a modest version of DBA.
Similar content being viewed by others
REFERENCES
Carnap, R. (1962), Logical Foundations of Probability, 2nd edn. Chicago: University of Chicago.
DeFinetti, B. (1937), La prevision: ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives, Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincare 7: 1–68. English translation: Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources, in H.E. Kyburg and H.E. Smokler, eds (1980), Studies in Subjective Probability, 2nd edn. Huntingdon, NY: Krieger.
Kaplan, M. (1996), Decision Theory as Philosophy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Keynes, J.M. (1921), A Treatise on Probability. London: Macmillan.
Kyburg, H.E. and Smokler, H.E., eds. (1980), Studies in Subjective Probability, 2nd edn. Huntingdon, NY: Robert E. Krieger.
Plantinga, A. (1993),Warrant: The Current Debate. New York: OxfordUniversity Press.
Pollock, J.L. (1986), Contemporary Theories of Knowledge. Totowa, NJ: Rowman & Littlefield.
Resnik, M.D. (1987), Choices: An Introduction to Decision Theory.Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press.
Savage, L.J. (1972), The Foundations of Statistics, 2nd edn. New York: Dover.
Sobel, J.H. (1987), Self-doubts and Dutch strategies, Australasian Journal of Phiolsophy 65: 56–81.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Silber, D. Dutch books and agent rationality. Theory and Decision 47, 247–266 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005154608426
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005154608426