Induction by Direct Inference Meets the Goodman Problem

Abstract

I here aim to show that a particular approach to the problem of induction, which I will call "induction by direct inference", comfortably handles Goodman's problem of induction. I begin the article by describing induction by direct inference. After introducing induction by direct inference, I briefly introduce the Goodman problem, and explain why it is, prima facie, an obstacle to the proposed approach. I then show how one may address the Goodman problem, assuming one adopts induction by direct inference as an approach to the problem of induction. In particular, I show that a relatively standard treatment of what some have called the \Reference Class Problem" addresses the Goodman Problem. Indeed, plausible and relatively standard principles of direct inference yield the conclusion that the Goodman inference (involving the grue predicate) is defeated, so it is unnecessary to invoke considerations of `projectibility' in order to address the Goodman problem. I conclude the article by discussing the generality of the proposed approach, in dealing with variants of Goodman's example.