Abstract
Mistakes during criminal investigations are costly, leading to wrongful convictions, so it is helpful to employ rigorous analytic methods to help mitigate errors and biases. This paper introduces a new method to help make sense of a set of information, allowing thought processes to be externalised in a systematic and transparent manner. While this method is presented in a criminal investigation context, it can be applied to any situation where analysis of several hypotheses and evidence is required. Open source software was created and used to test the method empirically. A simulated criminal investigation was carried out by seventy-five trainee investigators, the results showed better conclusions were reached when using the method.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
These terms mean the same as in MA, a parameter is a container for values that represent a particular facet of the world.
The testimony could be a fabrication, the driver could have bad eyesight, the driver could have mental health issues, etc...
There are many examples of this. Once such example: Lubanga judgement, supra note 2, x94; Judgement on the Appeal of Mr. Thomas Lubanga Dyilo against his Conviction, Lubanga (ICC-01/04-01/06-3121).
References
Akgun I (2015) Likelihood estimation of intentional events in risk management: Evidence based intelligent morphological analysis approach. In: Intelligent techniques in engineering management, Springer, pp 45–75
Dubois D, Prade H (2009) Formal representations of uncertainty. In: Decision-making process: concepts and methods pp 85–156
Gilead M, Sela M, Maril A (2018) That’s my truth: evidence for involuntary opinion confirmation. Soc Psychol Personal Sci. https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550618762300
Greller W, Drachsler H (2012) Translating learning into numbers: a generic framework for learning analytics. Educ Technol Soc 15(3):42–57
Heuer RJ (1999) Psychology of intelligence analysis. Echo Point Books & Media, Brattleboro
Heuer RJ (2016) ACH, step by step. competinghypotheses.org. Accessed 10 Jan 2016
Janis IL (1982) Groupthink: psychological studies of policy decisions and fiascoes, vol 349. Houghton Mifflin, Boston
Jimenez H, Mavris D (2010) An evolution of morphological analysis applications in systems engineering. In: 48th AIAA aerospace sciences meeting including the new horizons forum and aerospace exposition, p 972
Klayman J, Ha YW (1987) Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing. Psychol Rev 94(2):211
Lagnado DA, Fenton N, Neil M (2013) Legal idioms: a framework for evidential reasoning. Argum Comput 4(1):46–63
Martin DL (2001) Lessons about justice from the laboratory of wrongful convictions: tunnel vision, the construction of guilt and informer evidence. UMKC L Rev 70:847
Pherson R (2008) Handbook of analytic tools and techniques. Pherson Associates, Reston
Pope S, Josang A (2005) Analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic. Tech. rep., Queensland University (Australia)
Primer AT (2009) Structured analytic techniques for improving intelligence analysis. CIA Center for the study of intelligence
Richards HJ, Pherson RH (2010) Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis. CQ Press, Washington
Ritchey T (1998) General morphological analysis. In: 16th EURO conference on operational analysis
Rossmo DK (2008) Criminal investigative failures. CRC Press, Boca Raton
Tobin L (2018) Consistent pathway analysis software. Demo: http://dfire.ucd.ie/cpa, Source: https://github.com/leetobin/cpa. Accessed 10 June 2018
Valtorta M, Dang J, Goradia H, Huang J, Huhns M (2005) Extending heuer’s analysis of competing hypotheses method to support complex decision analysis. In: Proceedings of the 2005 international conference on intelligence analysis (IA-05)(CDROM), extended version available at http://www.cse.sc.edu/~mgv/reports/IA-05.pdf, Citeseer
Verheij B, Bex F, Timmer ST, Vlek CS, Meyer JJC, Renooij S, Prakken H (2015) Arguments, scenarios and probabilities: connections between three normative frameworks for evidential reasoning. Law Probab Risk 15(1):35–70
Woods K, Lee C, Garfinkel S, Dittrich D, Russel A, Kearton K (2011) Creating realistic corpora for forensic and security education. In: Proceedings of the ADFSL conference on digital forensics, security and law, pp 123–134
Zwicky F (1969) Morphology of justice in the space age and the boundaries of outer space (legal aspects concerning outer space and boundaries, discussing treaty aspects considered by various international congresses). Astronaut Acta 14:615–626
Zwicky F (2012) Morphological astronomy. Springer, Berlin
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Tobin, L., Gladyshev, P. Consistent pathway analysis: a structured analytic method. Artif Intell Law 27, 1–14 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10506-018-9230-4
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10506-018-9230-4