Abstract
This paper begins with the hypothesis that Mikea, participants in a mixed foraging–fishing–farming–herding economy of southwestern Madagascar, may attempt to reduce interannual variance in food supply caused by unpredictable rainfall by following a simple rule-of-thumb: Practice an even mix of activities that covary positively with rainfall and activities that covary negatively with rainfall. Results from a historical matrix participatory exercise confirm that Mikea perceive that foraging and farming outcomes covary positively or negatively with rainfall. This paper further considers whether Mikea learn about covariation through personal observation and memory recall (individual learning) or through socially transmitted ethnotheory (social learning). Dual inheritance theory models by Boyd and Richerson (1988) predict that individual learning is more effective in spatially and temporally variable environments such as the Mikea Forest. In contrast, the psychological literature suggests that individuals judge covariation poorly when memory of past events is required, unless they share a socially learned theory that a covariation should exist (Nisbett and Ross 1980). Results suggest that Mikea rely heavily on shared ethnotheory when judging covariation, but individuals continually strive to improve their judgment through individual observation.
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Acknowledgement
Several individuals deserve thanks for the roles they played in the conception of this paper. As part of his dissertation research, James Yount arranged for Karen Freudenberger to train our Malagasy colleagues Tsiazonera and Jaovola Tombo in participatory methods including the historical matrix in Fianarantsoa, Madagascar, in 1998. During my dissertation follow-up project in 1999, Tsiazonera and Jaovola taught me the historical matrix exercise, and we decided that it could be used to reveal covariation perception. They, along with Gervais Tantely and Tsimitamby, assisted with data collection. Special thanks to all our research participants for their patience. HASYMA kindly provided data from their weather stations and official permission to publish these data. Thanks to the following for comments on previous drafts: James Yount, Larry Kuznar, Joe Henrich, Lexine Trask, Tammy Watkins, Lisa Chaudhari, and the anonymous reviewers. Field research was funded by a National Science Foundation Dissertation Improvement Grant.
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Tucker, B. Perception of Interannual Covariation and Strategies for Risk Reduction among Mikea of Madagascar. Hum Nat 18, 162–180 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12110-007-9007-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12110-007-9007-z