Abstract
In this article, we explore the micro-foundations of elite politics by focusing on changes in network structures that emerge from informal conversations. Empirically, we offer a novel “situational conflict” explanation to account for the puzzle of why reformist leaders were periodically ousted during China’s reform era (1977–1992), emphasizing the unexpected power collision that catalyzed the violent crackdown on the Tiananmen movement in 1989. To do so, we employ network analysis and narrative to utilize an original dataset of elite conversations and primary sources that have only recently been made available. We find that ideological cleavage and manipulative brokerage produced each conflict to varying degrees but were contingent on the relational structure arising from elite conversational interactions. Furthermore, the actual unfolding of those conflicts often resulted from key actors’ discrepant understandings of the changing relationships via ongoing interactions at vital moments, such as during the Tiananmen movement. Integrating micro-sociological theories and network analysis, our work has methodological and theoretical implications for unpacking the black box of elite politics and its role in macro-historical change.
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Notes
All Chinese politicians in this article are indicated by family name, followed by their given name.
This echoes the reflection of Bao Tong, Zhao Ziyang’s secretary: “He [Deng] went back and forth like a pendulum. Sometimes he favored the reforms, sometimes he asserted the Four Principles of Socialism. He was both a sincere supporter of the reforms and a determined defender of the things we had to reform” (Lim, 2014:162).
For example, a “Simmelian” broker caught between the conflicting demands of two adversarial but internally cohesive groups may face suspicion about their loyalties from both sides and be harmed by the brokerage role (Krackhardt, 1999).
From a more structural view, Bourdieu (2014:112-113) notably reached a similar conclusion when commenting on “network analysis” in the US: he believed “that interactions are very important, that they are often the only way in which we are able to grasp things, and that it is only by way of interactions that structures reveal themselves.
Following Gould and Fernandez, we define coordinator as an agent who coordinates members of the same group, itinerant as an outside intermediary who connects two members of another group, and gatekeeper/representative as a fellow party member that connects outsiders. Our purpose is to materialize these existing brokerage types, quantitatively and qualitatively, in the study of elite politics.
As Broćić and Silver note (2021:93–94, 97–99), social network analysis and symbolic interactionism, though both stemmed from Simmel, have become two divergent subfields with little overlaps, because they adopt contrasting social ontologies and, probably more importantly, employ different kinds of data and methods.
This kind of conversation record is not new or unique to China. In imperial China, the daily activities of emperors were compiled in volumes called Veritable Records after their death. In the Soviet Union, visits to Stalin’s office by party officials were logged in notebooks (Khlevniuk, 2009:66–71). Nevertheless, in both cases only supreme leaders had this privilege, whereas several top leaders in contemporary China received it.
There was also an unofficial, less complete chronicle for Zhao Ziyang during his Beijing years, 1980–1989 (ZZYZNHSNJS, 2005). We did not code it because it contains few records of Zhao’s conversations. There are no publicly available chronicles for two other top leaders: Hua Guofeng (who was ousted and thus did not receive this privilege) and Jiang Zemin (who passed away only recently and whose chronicles will thus be published in a few years). The lack of their data limits our network analysis for the corresponding years.
There are also two chronicles for Marshals Xu Xiangqian and Nie Rongzhen, who were in their eighties during the reform era and did not participate in many key conversations. They were also far less politically salient. We thus use their records only in the narrative, rather than include these chronicles in the database.
Unedited records of conversations among major actors are arguably the best vehicles for studying the interactional nature of politics (McLean, 2007:26). However, such high-quality data are very unusual, even in democracies. Records of the conversations of Chinese leaders include basic information but not the entire transcripts, thus precluding conversation analysis (Gibson, 2012; Sacks et al., 1974).
For this research, we only included conversation participants from the Chinese Communist Party, state apparatus, and the military and excluded meetings with foreign leaders, private businessmen, scientists, artists, and ordinary citizens.
Other kinds of informal (and often “invisible”) communicative networks are also at work in elite politics. Most notably in the case of 1980s China, princelings (the children of the revolutionary elders) served as messengers for top leaders. However, evidence of such interactions is too fragmented to be integrated into quantitative network analysis. We instead make use of it in our narrative and case study.
Each of these methods will be specified when it is used in the next section.
Period I also began with the arrest of the “Gang of Four” in October 1976: the first major power struggle of the post-Mao era.
Since the conversation companions of the ‘ego’ leaders were often also top leaders, these conversations account for more than 50% of each of these focal leaders’ total conversations with all political elites.
This label corresponds to political strategies for controlling and coopting influential non-CCP groups and elites such as religious society and leaders.
Some conversations included more than one topic and therefore are coded for each.
The value we can ascribe to this importance is limited, however, by the fact that about 40% of the conversation records do not include information about topics.
Military authority alone cannot determine the result of power struggles in China. This is why Marshal Ye Jianying—Hua’s prince regent and the de facto military commander—surrendered his leadership to Deng during the Hua-Deng struggle. It is clear to almost everyone that Ye lacked the civilian power base necessary to continue in the prince regent role unless he turned the party-state into a military dictatorship.
More advanced centrality measures exist, but degree centrality has shown to be a good indicator in many empirical studies, and more advanced centrality measures have been found to follow similar qualitative behavior: for example, we used pagerank as another measure of centrality and found similar patterns (Freeman, 1978). Betweenness does not work here because the top leaders all interacted with each other to some extent in a dynamic communicative network.
It is possible that Deng—a robust actor—deliberately kept “silent” (and thus ambiguous) to maximize his scope of actions during crises such as the Tiananmen movement. To adjudicate the rival explanations, we will offer fine-grained narrative and interpretations of this case.
Conversation intensity measures the number of conversations between two actors compared to what would be expected as random under a weighted configuration model (Newman, 2010). It is positive if two actors interact more often than what would be expected when the conversation network is a random network, and negative if two actors interact less frequently.
According to Zhao Ziyang’s memoir, “Deng then asked [another elder] Bo Yibo to mediate with these elders. It wasn’t easy at first. It was not until July 3 that Chen Yun expressed his consent to Bo Yibo, saying that he would follow the arrangements made by the Party. Once Chen Yun conceded, the others were easier to persuade” (Zhao, 2009:209). Bo’s itinerant role boosted his own power: “he continued to overreach. He often asked the Director of Organization [Song Ping] to report to him” (Zhao, 2009:212).
We apply the Louvain method to calculate the maximal modularity of the corresponding communities in each period. Formally, modularity is defined as \(\frac{1}{2M}{\sum }\left({A}_{ij}-{d}_{i}{d}_{j}/2M\right)\sigma \left({c}_{i}, {c}_{j}\right)\) where \({c}_{i}\) (\({c}_{j}\)) is the community to which actor i (j) belongs and \(\sigma \left({c}_{i}, {c}_{j}\right)=1\) if \({c}_{i}={c}_{j}\); otherwise, \(\sigma \left({c}_{i}, {c}_{j}\right)=0\). \({d}_{i}\) (\({d}_{j}\)) is the sum of the edge weights attached to actor i (j). M is the sum of all edge weights in the graph.
Notably, centrality and modularity are complementary rather than completely independent measures of the network. As the conversation network became more modularized (i.e., showed high modularity), it was rarer to have highly connected actors linking communities.
Due to his ouster, Hua Guofeng’s full conversational records have not been compiled for publication.
Chen Yun had far fewer conversations than Deng and the lowest normalized degree centrality (≈0.05), mainly because he did not return to the power center until December 1978 and was hospitalized for several months until March 1980 (CYZ, 2005:1593, 1601–5). Therefore, there is a discrepancy between network analysis and narrative, or between Chen’s nominal power and real power.
Zhao preferred a moderate, realistic strategy, while Hu advocated a radical reform policy, which annoyed Zhao in 1982–1983. In a letter to Deng and Chen in May 1984, Zhao implied that this was a major issue (ZZYWJ, 2016, vol. 2:406–407). This letter has been regarded by both Hu’s allies and rivals as Zhao’s ambush of Hu Yaobang (Ruan, 1992:188–189; Wu, 1995:210; Deng, 2006; Lu, 2019:993).
In 1986, students began to protest in mid-December. College students demonstrated on Tiananmen Square on January 1st and 2nd, 1987. General Secretary Hu Yaobang submitted a resignation letter on January 2.
For example, four of Li’s nine letters to Jiang underscored the significance of ideological “purity.”.
At that time, both Deng and Chen were in Shanghai, but they did not meet, signaling their estrangement.
The unexpected loser in this power struggle was Yang Shangkun, Deng’s right-hand man. Deng removed the Yang brothers and their associates to consolidate Jiang’s authority and his own position in the army (Baum, 1994:369–70). According to the published records, Deng and Yang never had another private conversation afterwards. Yang lost his power once he was no longer Deng’s gatekeeper/representative.
We chose the two also because, among top leaders, only Zhao and Li offered detailed narratives about the major events of the Tiananmen movement in their autobiographies or diaries.
Later the same day, Li Peng also received a phone call from Chen Yun’s secretary on behalf of Chen (Li, 2010:84).
For example, Zhao Ziyang’s Chief of Staff Bao Tong offered his interpretation in an interview: “Deng used the students as a tool to oust his designated successor. … the gradual escalation of tensions between the Communist leadership and the students may not have been due to mishandling by a divide party, but part of a deliberate strategy [of Deng]” (Lim, 2014:172).
For example, Zhao’s major associate, Vice Premier Tian Jiyun, later considered Zhao’s visit to North Korea a “grave and deadly mistake” (Lu, 2019:1170–71).
Anecdotal evidence suggests that Zhao and his adviser Bao Tong knew of the students’ plan to hunger strike on May 12th and acquiesced to it (Lu, 2019:1219).
Two months later Gorbachev also told the Prime Minister of India, Rajiv Gandhi, that he “thought that there was some deep meaning behind this” remark (History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, 2010).
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Acknowledgements
We are grateful for the valuable insights provided by the anonymous reviewers and the editors of Theory and Society. We also thank Adam Auerbach, Elisabeth Clemens, Keith Darden, Shizheng Feng, Marco Garrido, Randall Henning, Yue Hou, Hofung Hung, Shilin Jia, Miles Kahler, Richard Lachmann, Aliza Luft, John Levi Martin, John Padgett, Simone Polillo, Benjamin Rohr, Cathy Schneider, Simon Shachter, Adam Slez, Yang Su, Jordan Tama, Matthew Taylor, Juan Wang, Yingyao Wang, Yan Xu, Joe Young, Han Zhang, Yongjun Zhang, Dingxin Zhao, Xueguang Zhou, and Yuhao Zhuang, who have commented on early drafts of our article. In addition, we have received helpful feedback when we presented our paper at the Social Science History Association Annual Meeting, the American Sociological Association Annual Meeting, and workshops at the Johns Hopkins University, the University of Chicago, George Washington University, the University of Virginia, Duke Kunshan University, and American University.
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This research was sponsored by Dean’s Summer Research Awards from the School of International Service in American University.
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Zhang, Y., Shi, F. The micro-foundations of elite politics: conversation networks and elite conflict during China’s reform era. Theor Soc 53, 193–237 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11186-023-09530-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11186-023-09530-7