Functionspaces, simplicity and curve fitting

Synthese 201 (2):1-14 (2022)
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Abstract

The number of adjustable parameters in a model or hypothesis is often taken as the formal expression of its simplicity. I take issue with this `definition´ and argue that comparative simplicity has a quasi-empirical measure, reflecting experts’ judgements who track past use of a model-type in or across domains. Since models are represented by restricted sets of functions in a suitable space, formally speaking, a general `measure of simplicity´ may be defined implicitly for the elements of a function space. This paper sketches such a framework starting from intuitive constraints. It is shown how experts’ judgements feed into this framework and how the usual definition can be recovered. A theorem by H. Akaike in the theory of model-choice has recently been used to shine new light on the relationship between the demand for simplicity and empirical success, or even `truth´. The approach favored here permits an alternative answer based on a reliabilist account of justification: if judgements of simplicity track past successful use of a model-type comparative simplicity is evidential and inductive.

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Fact, Fiction, and Forecast.Nelson Goodman - 1955 - Philosophy 31 (118):268-269.
Simplicity.Elliott Sober - 1975 - Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Reliabilism, induction and scepticism.David Papineau - 1992 - Philosophical Quarterly 42 (166):1-20.

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