Conditionals Right and Left: Probabilities for the Whole Family

Journal of Philosophical Logic 38 (1):1-53 (2009)
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Abstract

The fact that the standard probabilistic calculus does not define probabilities for sentences with embedded conditionals is a fundamental problem for the probabilistic theory of conditionals. Several authors have explored ways to assign probabilities to such sentences, but those proposals have come under criticism for making counterintuitive predictions. This paper examines the source of the problematic predictions and proposes an amendment which corrects them in a principled way. The account brings intuitions about counterfactual conditionals to bear on the interpretation of indicatives and relies on the notion of causal (in)dependence.

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Stefan Kaufmann
University of Connecticut

References found in this work

Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference.Judea Pearl - 2000 - Cambridge University Press.
The Principles of Mathematics.Bertrand Russell - 1903 - Cambridge, England: Allen & Unwin.
On conditionals.Dorothy Edgington - 1995 - Mind 104 (414):235-329.

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