Abstract

I suggest that the retrospective path planning could also be applied to issues in settlement planning, such as natural disasters and energy-settlement considerations. ;Mixed scanning, though it combines features of incrementalism and comprehensive rationalism, ignores normative issues as well. ;My alternative framework is an attempt to build in the normative features excluded by incrementalism/mixed scanning and avoid the problems of authoritarianism and utopianism of comprehensive rationalism. The normative requirement is achieved by making the "normative blueprint", consisting of a set of goals and values, the generating force behind a given policy field. Authoritarianism is avoided because these values and goals are not held dogmatically but are considered fallibillistic and revisable. Such a policy approach is non-utopian because it is to operate in decentralized policy-making institutions at a local level and provide more continuity than centralized, rational planning institutions. My alternative policy planning approach, retrospective path planning, would consist of future time normative scenario construction directed by these goals and values. Then working back, one would identify and create policy paths that would link present policy trends with the future normative scenarios. Normative Delphi techniques and critical path approaches would also be used in an intermediate time frame . Finally, other techniques could be used from the present into the 1990's with the provision that they are directed by the goals of the normative scenario. ;Incrementalism as a model for policy planning arose historically from the empiricist theory of knowledge and the rise of the market economy. The result for policy considerations was a rejection of value judgements and a descriptive, definitional approach to the policy field holding sway. The result in the energy policy field is the domination of technological and market pricing considerations to the exclusion of normative, social concerns. This claim is argued based on the critical examination of An Energy Policy for Canada , An Energy Strategy for Canada and Energy Futures for Canadians . ;Comprehensive rationalism claims to be an alternative to incrementalism in providing more effective policy planning. This model is rejected because of the dangers of rational planning: value authoritarianism and utopianism. ;The thesis develops a conceptual framework for understanding the policy field and a policy planning theory alternative to the three dominant theories: incrementalism, comprehensive rationalism and mixed scanning