The impact of ambiguity and prudence on prevention decisions

Theory and Decision 80 (3):389-409 (2016)
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Abstract

Most decisions concerning insurance and self-protection have to be taken in situations in which the effort exerted precedes the moment uncertainty realizes, and the probabilities of future states of the world are not perfectly known. By integrating these two characteristics in a simple theoretical framework, this paper derives plausible conditions under which ambiguity aversion raises the demand for insurance and self-protection. In particular, it is shown that in most usual situations where the level of ambiguity does not increase with the level of effort, a simple condition of ambiguity prudence known as decreasing absolute ambiguity aversion is sufficient to give a clear and positive answer to the question: Does ambiguity aversion raise the optimal level of effort?

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The Foundations of Statistics.Leonard J. Savage - 1954 - Wiley Publications in Statistics.
The Foundations of Statistics.Leonard J. Savage - 1954 - Synthese 11 (1):86-89.

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