In Leonid Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Globalistics and Globalization Studies. Volgograd: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 65-98 (2014)

Authors
Leonid Grinin
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Abstract
The analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term worldsystem dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers a historical sketch of research on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of cyclical dynamics that emerged in the industrial period of the World System history. It offers a historical and theoretical analysis of K-wave dynamics in the World System framework; in particular, it studies the influence of the long wave dynamics on the changes of the world GDP growth rates during the last two centuries. Special attention is paid to the interaction between Kondratieff waves and Juglar cycles. The article is based on substantial statistical data, it extensively employs quantitative analysis, contains numerous tables and diagrams. On the basis of the proposed analysis it offers some forecasts of the world economic development in the next two decades. The article concludes with a section that presents a hypothesis that the change of K-wave upswing and downswing phases correlates significantly with the phases of fluctuations in the relationships between the World-System Core and Periphery, as well as with the World System Core changes.
Keywords cyclical dynamics  Juglar cycles  Kondratieff waves  world economy  technological style
Categories (categorize this paper)
Buy the book Find it on Amazon.com
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy

 PhilArchive page | Other versions
External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

Late Capitalism.Ernest Mandel - 1979 - Science and Society 43 (1):106-109.
Secular Cycles.Peter Turchin & Sergey A. Nefedov - 2009 - Princeton University Press.

View all 8 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery.Leonid Grinin, Arno Tausch & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) - 2016 - Switzerland: Springer International Publishing Switzerland.

Add more citations

Similar books and articles

The Sixth Kondratieff Wave and the Cybernetic Revolution.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2016 - Globalistics and Globalization Studies:337-355.
The MANBRIC-Technologies in the Forthcoming Technological Revolution.Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2017 - Industry 4.0 - Entrepreneurship and Structural Change in the New Digital Landscape: What is Coming on Along with the Fourth Industrial Revolution:243-261.
Akamatsu Waves.Leonid Grinin, Arno Tausch & Andrey Korotayev - 2017 - Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics:1-16.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2018-05-29

Total views
77 ( #134,176 of 2,432,322 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
12 ( #55,754 of 2,432,322 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes