Abstract

Agassi’s radical skepticism leads to the following practical suggestion: When investors consider the likelihood that a suggested innovation will materialize, they should refer to the question: does this idea (that this innovation materializes) raise or reduce the strangeness of the world? And to answer this question, they should examine if the suggested technology is consistent with accepted scientific theories, and if it explains unexpected phenomena. This recommended method is not based on Bayesian epistemology but on a psychological theory of beliefs consistent with skepticism.