Rational risk‐aversion: Good things come to those who weight

Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 108 (3):697-725 (2023)
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Abstract

No existing normative decision theory adequately handles risk. Expected Utility Theory is overly restrictive in prohibiting a range of reasonable preferences. And theories designed to accommodate such preferences (for example, Buchak's (2013) Risk‐Weighted Expected Utility Theory) violate the Betweenness axiom, which requires that you are indifferent to randomizing over two options between which you are already indifferent. Betweenness has been overlooked by philosophers, and we argue that it is a compelling normative constraint. Furthermore, neither Expected nor Risk‐Weighted Expected Utility Theory allow for stakes‐sensitive risk‐attitudes—they require that risk matters in the same way whether you are gambling for loose change or millions of dollars. We provide a novel normative interpretation of Weighted‐Linear Utility Theory that solves all of these problems.

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Author Profiles

Timothy Luke Williamson
Australian National University
Christopher Bottomley
Princeton University

Citations of this work

Better Foundations for Subjective Probability.Sven Neth - forthcoming - Australasian Journal of Philosophy.
Non-Ideal Decision Theory.Sven Neth - 2023 - Dissertation, University of California, Berkeley

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References found in this work

In Defense of Fanaticism.Hayden Wilkinson - 2022 - Ethics 132 (2):445-477.
The Foundations of Statistics.Leonard J. Savage - 1954 - Synthese 11 (1):86-89.
What Is Risk Aversion?H. Orri Stefansson & Richard Bradley - 2019 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 70 (1):77-102.

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