This reference scenario, which forms the basis for all other articles in this issue, assumes that a nuclear war begins on a week-day in early June, 1985. The nuclear arsenals of the US and the USSR at that time are calcualted to total approximately 12 000 Mt, deployed in 55 000-60 000 tactical and strategic warheads. North America, Europe and the USSR are assumed to be the main strategic targets for these warheads, although cities, industrial and economic centers, military bases, (...) and mineral and energy resources in some other parts of the world are also targeted. These targets would expend a total of 14 741 warheads and 5 742 Mt, of which 5 569 Mt would be exploded in the Northern Hemisphere. (shrink)

In addition to the tremendous fires that will burn for weeks in cities and industrial centers, fires will also rage across croplands and it is likely that at least 1.5 billion tons of stored fossil fuels will be destroyed. The fires will produce a thick smoke layer that will drastically reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the earth’s surface. This darkness would persist for many weeks, rendering any agricultural activity in the Northern Hemisphere virtually impossible if the war takes place (...) during the growing season. The immediate effects of a global nuclear wo. (shrink)