The Raven Paradox Revisited in Terms of Random Variables

Erkenntnis 78 (4):763-795 (2013)
The discussion about the Raven Paradox is ever-renewing: after nearly 70 years, many authors propose from time to time new solutions, and many authors state that these solutions are unsatisfactory. It is worthy to be carefully noted that though most arguments in favor or against the paradox are based on the notion of “probability” and on the application of Bayes’ law, not one of them makes use of the Kolmogorov axiomatic theory of probability and on the subsequent notion of “random variable”. This seems to be due to a preference for the purely logical interpretation of the notion of “probability” which makes it possible to assign a probability value to propositions expressing natural (universal) laws. This paper aims at presenting an attempt to contribute a solution to the paradox by the proposal of a different way to express universal natural laws and by the use of a language which does not allow one to apply probability to universal statements
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DOI 10.1007/s10670-013-9430-y
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Logical Foundations of Probability.Rudolf Carnap - 1950 - Chicago]University of Chicago Press.
On Denoting.Bertrand Russell - 2005 - Mind 114 (456):873 - 887.
On Denoting.Bertrand Russell - 1905 - Mind 14 (56):479-493.

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