Abstract

We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.Uncertainty is an everyday experience in medical research and practice, but theory and methods for reasoning clearly about uncertainty were developed only recently. Confirmation bias, selective memory, and many misleading heuristics are known enemies of the insightful clinician, researcher, or citizen, but other snares worth exposing may lurk in how we reason about uncertainty in our everyday lives. Here we draw attention to a cognitive bias that is little known—or possibly unknown—to those outside the field of probability pedagogy. Described by Konold as the...