Hempel's Raven paradox: A lacuna in the standard bayesian solution
British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 55 (3):545-560 (2004)
Abstract
According to Hempel's paradox, evidence (E) that an object is a nonblack nonraven confirms the hypothesis (H) that every raven is black. According to the standard Bayesian solution, E does confirm H but only to a minute degree. This solution relies on the almost never explicitly defended assumption that the probability of H should not be affected by evidence that an object is nonblack. I argue that this assumption is implausible, and I propose a way out for Bayesians. Introduction Hempel's paradox, the standard Bayesian solution, and the disputed assumption Attempts to defend the disputed assumption Attempts to refute the disputed assumption A way out for Bayesians Conclusion.Author's Profile
Reprint years
2002
DOI
10.1093/bjps/55.3.545
My notes
Similar books and articles
Regarding the Raven Paradox.Robert J. Levy - 1988 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988:17 - 23.
Can I kill my younger self? Time travel and the retrosuicide paradox.Peter B. M. Vranas - 2009 - Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 90 (4):520-534.
The bayesian treatment of auxiliary hypotheses.Michael Strevens - 2001 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 52 (3):515-537.
The solution of Hempel's Raven paradox in Rudolf Carnap's system of inductive logic.Jürgen Humburg - 1986 - Erkenntnis 24 (1):57 - 72.
Analytics
Added to PP
2009-01-28
Downloads
790 (#10,518)
6 months
65 (#18,115)
2009-01-28
Downloads
790 (#10,518)
6 months
65 (#18,115)
Historical graph of downloads
Author's Profile
Citations of this work
How Bayesian Confirmation Theory Handles the Paradox of the Ravens.Branden Fitelson & James Hawthorne - 2010 - In Ellery Eells & James Fetzer (eds.), The Place of Probability in Science. Springer. pp. 247--275.
A New Bayesian Solution to the Paradox of the Ravens.Susanna Rinard - 2014 - Philosophy of Science 81 (1):81-100.
References found in this work
Aspects of Scientific Explanation and Other Essays in the Philosophy of Science.Carl Gustav Hempel - 1965 - New York: The Free Press.
Inference to the Best Explanation.Peter Lipton - 1991 - London and New York: Routledge/Taylor and Francis Group.