David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Thinking and Reasoning 5 (2):115 – 144 (1999)
Oaksford and Chater (1994) proposed to analyse the Wason selection task as an inductive instead of a deductive task. Applying Bayesian statistics, they concluded that the cards that participants tend to select are those with the highest expected information gain. Therefore, their choices seem rational from the perspective of optimal data selection. We tested a central prediction from the theory in three experiments: card selection frequencies should be sensitive to the subjective probability of occurrence for individual cards. In Experiment 1, expected frequencies of the p- and the q-card were manipulated independently by concepts referring to large vs. small sets. Although the manipulation had an effect on card selection frequencies, there was only a weak correlation between the predicted and the observed patterns. In the second experiment, relative frequencies of individual cards were manipulated more directly by explicit frequency information. In addition, participants estimated probabilities for the four logical cases and of the conditional statement itself. The experimental manipulations strongly affected the probability estimates, but were completely unrelated to card selections. This result was replicated in a third experiment. We conclude that our data provide little support for optimal data selection theory.
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Pascal Wagner-Egger (2007). Conditional Reasoning and the Wason Selection Task: Biconditional Interpretation Instead of Reasoning Bias. Thinking and Reasoning 13 (4):484 – 505.
David K. Hardman (1998). Discussion de-Focusing on the Wason Selection Task: Mental Models or Mental Inference Rules? A Commentary on Green and Larking (1995). Thinking and Reasoning 4 (1):83 – 94.
Simone Duca (2009). Rationality and the Wason Selection Task: A Logical Account. Psyche 15 (1):109-131.
Dan Sperber (2002). Use or Misuse of the Selection Task? Rejoinder to Fiddick, Cosmides, and Tooby. Cognition 85 (3):277-290.
David W. Green David, E. Over Robin & A. Pyne (1997). Probability and Choice in the Selection Task. Thinking and Reasoning 3 (3):209 – 235.
David Hardman (1998). Does Reasoning Occur on the Selection Task? A Comparison of Relevance-Based Theories. Thinking and Reasoning 4 (4):353 – 376.
Erica Lucas & Linden Ball (2005). Think-Aloud Protocols and the Selection Task: Evidence for Relevance Effects and Rationalisation Processes. Thinking and Reasoning 11 (1):35 – 66.
Mike Oaksford (1998). Discussion Task Demands and Revising Probabilities in the Selection Task: A Comment on Green, Over, and Pyne. Thinking and Reasoning 4 (2):179 – 186.
Mike Oaksford, Nick Chater & Becki Grainger (1999). Probabilistic Effects in Data Selection. Thinking and Reasoning 5 (3):193 – 243.
Hiroshi Yama (2001). Matching Versus Optimal Data Selection in the Wason Selection Task. Thinking and Reasoning 7 (3):295 – 311.
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads15 ( #106,600 of 1,098,832 )
Recent downloads (6 months)2 ( #174,441 of 1,098,832 )
How can I increase my downloads?