In Marcello D'Agostino, Federico Laudisa, Giulio Giorello, Telmo Pievani & Corrado Sinigaglia (eds.), New Essays in Logic and Philosophy of Science. College Publications. pp. 603--615 (2010)
Authors |
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Abstract |
We provide a 'verisimilitudinarian' analysis of the
well-known Linda paradox or conjunction fallacy,
i.e., the fact that most people judge the
probability of the conjunctive statement "Linda
is a bank teller and is active in the feminist
movement" (B & F) as more probable than the
isolated statement "Linda is a bank teller" (B),
contrary to an uncontroversial
principle of probability theory.
The basic idea is that experimental participants
may judge B & F a better hypothesis about Linda
as compared to B because they evaluate B & F as
more verisimilar than B.
In fact, the hypothesis "feminist bank teller",
while less likely to be true than "bank teller",
may well be a better approximation to the truth
about Linda.
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Keywords | Linda paradox verisimilitude truthlikeness truth approximation conjunction fallacy probability |
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References found in this work BETA
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic & Amos Tversky (eds.) - 1982 - Cambridge University Press.
Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge.Karl Raimund Popper - 1962 - London, England: Routledge.
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman - 1974 - Science 185 (4157):1124-1131.
The Fragmentation of Reason: Preface to a Pragmatic Theory of Cognitive Evaluation.Stephen P. Stich - 1990 - Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.
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Citations of this work BETA
Verisimilitude and Belief Change for Conjunctive Theories.Gustavo Cevolani, Vincenzo Crupi & Roberto Festa - 2011 - Erkenntnis 75 (2):183-202.
Robustness, Diversity of Evidence, and Probabilistic Independence.Jonah N. Schupbach - 2015 - In Mäki, Ruphy, Schurz & Votsis (eds.), Recent Developments in the Philosophy of Science: EPSA13 Helsinki. Springer. pp. 305-316.
On the Determinants of the Conjunction Fallacy: Probability Versus Inductive Confirmation.Katya Tentori, Vincenzo Crupi & Selena Russo - 2013 - Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 142 (1):235.
New Semantics for Bayesian Inference: The Interpretive Problem and Its Solutions.Olav Benjamin Vassend - 2019 - Philosophy of Science 86 (4):696-718.
Verisimilitude and Belief Change for Nomic Conjunctive Theories.Gustavo Cevolani, Roberto Festa & Theo A. F. Kuipers - 2013 - Synthese 190 (16):3307-3324.
View all 11 citations / Add more citations
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