Authors
Eric Winsberg
University of South Florida
Abstract
This paper deals with the question of whether uncertainty regarding model structure, especially in climate modeling, exhibits a kind of “chaos.” Do small changes in model structure, in other words, lead to large variations in ensemble predictions? More specifically, does model error destroy forecast skill faster than the ordinary or “classical” chaos inherent in the real-world attractor? In some cases, the answer to this question seems to be “yes.” But how common is this state of affairs? Are there precise mathematical results that can help us answer this question? And is dependence on model structure “sensitive” in that arbitrarily small errors can destroy forecast skill? We examine some efforts in the literature to answer this last question in the affirmative and find them to be unconvincing.
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories No categories specified
(categorize this paper)
ISBN(s)
DOI 10.1007/s13194-018-0244-2
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 63,285
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

View all 8 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Numerical instability and dynamical systems.Vincent Ardourel & Julie Jebeile - 2021 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 11 (2):1-21.
Climate modelling and structural stability.Vincent Lam - 2021 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 11 (4):1-14.

Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Structural Chaos.Conor Mayo-Wilson - 2015 - Philosophy of Science 82 (5):1236-1247.
What Are the New Implications of Chaos for Unpredictability?Charlotte Werndl - 2009 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 60 (1):195-220.
Structural Modeling Error and the System Individuation Problem.Jon Lawhead - forthcoming - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.
Determinism in Deterministic Chaos.Roger Jones - 1990 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1990:537-549.
Defining Chaos.Robert W. Batterman - 1993 - Philosophy of Science 60 (1):43-66.
Philosophy and Climate Science.Eric Winsberg - 2018 - Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Has Chaos Been Explained?Jeffrey Koperski - 2001 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 52 (4):683-700.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2018-08-27

Total views
19 ( #560,358 of 2,448,636 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
2 ( #303,766 of 2,448,636 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes