Abstract

The base rate fallacy is a fallacy that occurs in probabilistic reasoning when available general information is omitted from the calculations and attention is given to specific information only. To illustrate this concept, this chapter discusses the scenario in Philip K. Dick's short story “Minority Report”, with some details augmented by the 2002 movie daptation by Steven Spielberg. The legislative approach seems to be based not just on the base rate fallacy but on assuming a base rate that is divorced from reality, that the drug use rate among welfare applicants is significantly higher than the national rate. Once the accurate base rate is applied (be it the proportions between the races in the US population, or the percentage of drug users among the people receiving government welfare, etc.), one can clearly see that the original conclusion does not follow.