David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Journal of Economic Methodology 13 (1):1-24 (2006)
Drawing on research in the psychology of judgment and decision making, I argue that individual economists acting as experts in matters of public policy are likely to be victims of significant overconfidence. The case is based on the pervasiveness of the phenomenon, the nature of the task facing economists?as?experts, and the character of the institutional constraints under which they operate. Moreover, I argue that economist overconfidence can have dramatic consequences. Finally, I explore how the negative consequences of overconfidence can be mitigated, and how the phenomenon can be reduced or eliminated. As a case study, I discuss the involvement of Western experts in post?communist Russian economic reforms
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
Isaac Levi (1980). The Enterprise of Knowledge: An Essay on Knowledge, Credal Probability, and Chance. The MIT Press.
F. A. Hayek (1982). Law, Legislation and Liberty. Philosophy 57 (220):274-278.
R. Duncan Luce & Howard Raiffa (1958). Games and Decisions: Introduction and Critical Survey. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 19 (1):122-123.
B. Fischhoff (1982). Debiasing/Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. And Tversky, A. In Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic & Amos Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press
Citations of this work BETA
Ole Rogeberg & Hans Olav Melberg (2011). Acceptance of Unsupported Claims About Reality: A Blind Spot in Economics. Journal of Economic Methodology 18 (1):29-52.
Carlo Martini (2015). Expertise and Institutional Design in Economic Committees. Journal of Economic Methodology 22 (3):391-409.
Similar books and articles
Bruce D. Weinstein (1993). What is an Expert? Theoretical Medicine and Bioethics 14 (1).
Rosemarie Tong (1991). The Epistemology and Ethics of Consensus: Uses and Misuses of 'Ethical' Expertise. Journal of Medicine and Philosophy 16 (4):409-426.
Jeryl L. Mumpower & Thomas R. Stewart (1996). Expert Judgement and Expert Disagreement. Thinking and Reasoning 2 (2 & 3):191 – 212.
John Lodewijks (1994). Anthropologists and Economists: Conflict or Cooperation? Journal of Economic Methodology 1 (1):81-104.
Thomas Mayer (2001). The Role of Ideology in Disagreements Among Economists: A Quantitative Analysis. Journal of Economic Methodology 8 (2):253-273.
Michael Cholbi (2007). Moral Expertise and the Credentials Problem. Ethical Theory and Moral Practice 10 (4):323-334.
Bernward Gesang (2010). Are Moral Philosophers Moral Experts? Bioethics 24 (4):153-159.
Oliver R. Scholz (2009). Experts: What They Are and How We Recognize Them—a Discussion of Alvin Goldman's Views. Grazer Philosophische Studien 79 (1):187-205.
Hironori Ayabe (1999). Experts as Non-Experts: A Case From SSC. [REVIEW] AI and Society 13 (1-2):63-68.
Hugo Mercier (2011). When Experts Argue: Explaining the Best and the Worst of Reasoning. [REVIEW] Argumentation 25 (3):313-327.
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads552 ( #1,380 of 1,790,290 )
Recent downloads (6 months)203 ( #973 of 1,790,290 )
How can I increase my downloads?