Self-referential probability

Dissertation, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (2016)
Authors
Catrin Campbell-Moore
Bristol University
Abstract
This thesis focuses on expressively rich languages that can formalise talk about probability. These languages have sentences that say something about probabilities of probabilities, but also sentences that say something about the probability of themselves. For example: (π): “The probability of the sentence labelled π is not greater than 1/2.” Such sentences lead to philosophical and technical challenges; but can be useful. For example they bear a close connection to situations where ones confidence in something can affect whether it is the case or not. The motivating interpretation of probability as an agent's degrees of belief will be focused on throughout the thesis. This thesis aims to answer two questions relevant to such frameworks, which correspond to the two parts of the thesis: “How can one develop a formal semantics for this framework?” and “What rational constraints are there on an agent once such expressive frameworks are considered?”.
Keywords theories of truth  probability liar paradox  belief state dependence  rationality
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